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Seasonality

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Everything posted by Seasonality

  1. Seasonality
    Snow, y u come during evening commute? And now I'll have to clean the stuff off the bl**dy car in the morning
  2. Seasonality
    The ECM is flirting with the idea of colder conditions into Europe in its latter stages again. But the way its been flip flopping lately I'm treating it as pure entertainment.
  3. Seasonality
    I use all the usual forecasting models, so I'm often on meteociel, metoffice and weatheronline plus the local meteorological service, which has good radar and plenty of charts and live info. http://pogodynka.pl Click on radary polska for radar. Mapa synoptyczna for synoptic maps and you can explore from there. Loads of useful stuff.
  4. Seasonality
    Xmas ensemble watch looking better run by run. That's the -10 850hpa line where the op and control dip lowest. Snow row looking good too.
  5. Seasonality
    UKMO vs GFS Crimbo. Not a million miles off each other. And the threat of a mild Xmas seems to be receding for my location. Dry and frosty for the UK.
  6. Seasonality
    Is there an official definition of spell vs snap?
  7. Seasonality
    2008 onwards its like someone flicked a switch.
  8. Seasonality
    Looking better run by run for some Xmas white stuff too. Latest GFS ensembles for Warsaw. Milder runs being squeezed out and snow row looking better too.
  9. Seasonality
    Deliberate misrepresentation of the output. Briefly milder further east then turning much colder later in the run. But you know that and you chose to represent a snapshot of one day. I really struggle to understand why you keep doing this.
  10. Seasonality
    Oddly I may escape the Central European Xmas day curse if today's output is correct. 00z ECM showing snow xmas eve and max of -3 on xmas day for Warsaw.
  11. Seasonality
    Yes, its great when you can do that sort of thing. Been a nice week here in Warsaw, standard December fare really with snow on Sunday that is still standing today in sub-zero conditions. But in the UK or Ireland it would be treated as 'SNOWMAGEDDON BEAST HELL WINTER!!!!!!' in all the tabloid newspapers
  12. Seasonality
    Hi @Jet Streak tomorrow you'll fly into snow on the ground and normal temperatures for Warsaw of a few degrees below freezing. Then a thaw over the weekend and yes it is very much up in the air for Xmas. But I'm hoping for the white stuff. Enjoy your time in Łódź.
  13. Seasonality
    Ha ha. Look at the difference. Hilarious isn't it.
  14. Seasonality
    Nice. ECM puts me back in cold air for Xmas day. Nice feed of cold air for boxing day too. Nothing decided this far out though.
  15. Seasonality
    A high centred over or to the west of the UK is a theme that is being repeated in FI. Gives some decent cold for my location.
  16. Seasonality
    Model agreement for Xmas eve?
  17. Seasonality
    ECM showing a little more in the way of cold for Xmas, well less mild anyway. Changes in positioning of HP on this run. Suspect more changes to come.
  18. Seasonality
    Other models have shown this though. GFS took time to catch on.
  19. Seasonality
    Ah, there goes that one then. Thanks for the insight. As always more runs will tell.
  20. Seasonality
    I've noted that yr.no which uses ECM data for its forecasts hasn't updated thus evening after the 12z. Usually a good sign it's a questionable operational run.
  21. Seasonality
    Makes sense, really does seem out on its own.
  22. Seasonality
    ECM inconsistent. Back to run to run swings and roundabouts again.
  23. Seasonality
    High pressure ridging North West, centred West of the UK seems the form horse imo.
  24. Seasonality
    @bluearmyis a knowledgeable poster, no need to call the comment ridiculous. And meanwhile even the old model goofus is looking to give a more amplified Crimbo.
  25. Seasonality
    Icon starting to smell the Christmas coffee. Not perfect but call it a step towards the ECM solution...
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