MattStoke

The GFS has lower verification stats than the other models, is so often wrong in these setups, ridiculously under estimates temperatures, and changes widely from run to run. The only reason some rate it highly is because it has more publicly available data than any other model and updates more times per day. These claims about it being king, are garbage. Never mind that this event hasn't even arrived yet.

The Aperge has a 37’C to the west of London.

Sea surface temperatures are at least at their highest this time of year, so the impact on surface air temperature is at its minimum.

Models often struggle with cloud cover and project temperatures far too low as a result. We saw that from some of the models last Friday. That’s where the higher resolution models should do better but can still be off.

35-36’C would be my punt on the highest temperature for Friday. That’s about what the most accurate publicly available high resolution models are suggesting. Their in house model must be slightly hotter though.

Add on the usual couple of degrees for correction and Bournemouth could be scraping 30’C on multiple days.

I don’t rate it all. It’s so often wrong in these situations and the verification stats show it. The comments this morning are the usual knee jerk nonsense. Suddenly everything has fallen apart and the GFS is king - Nonsense. There is nothing to suggest a prolonged return to wet and windy conditions. It looks very warm/hot to end the week, with the heat holding on in south eastern areas as it very briefly turns cooler elsewhere over the weekend before heat re-builds next week. No change to the outlook from yesterday. Anyway. Automated Met Office forecast for Friday ups Heathrow’s maximum temperature to 37’C.

The model output looks nothing like that. I’m not seeing any change over the weekend from what was already expected. It remains very warm/hot in the south east before the heat becomes more widespread again into next week. Just the usual knee jerk reactions from people this morning.

ECM still looks hot for south eastern areas through the weekend to me. Can’t see that much has changed from yesterday.

Pretty sure that model uses GFS data.

Only a slim chance in the ‘reliable’ timeframe. Likely to be some noteworthy temperatures anyway.

Probably get a watered down version or something between the GFS and ECM but nearer to the latter. Normally the case.

Can probably add a further 2-3 degrees to the ECM raw temperature values. Although it was 5 degrees too low last Friday.

I look at it this way; I’d rather the GFS was on board, and it’s different output cannot be dismissed completely, however, if any model were to disagree with the general consensus, I’d rather it was the GFS. It’s so often wrong in these setups.

I was expecting it to be higher, to be honest. it has 32’C for 8am Saturday.

Aperge surface air temperatures for 8am Friday. I’m guessing the chart for the afternoon may be a touch on the warm side.

I never trust the GFS in these situations. It’s hopeless. The GFSP is at least an improvement but the UKMO and ECM are far more reliable.

Saturday looks potentially even hotter on the computer model suite to me.

Met Office latest for Friday.

Automated forecast for Heathrow, and these temperature projections are often revised upwards nearer the time.

The GFS is hopeless in these situations and the GEM and ICON are pretty hopeless in general. I put far more credence in the ECM and UKMO.

Very hot GFSP again. Peak heat next Saturday.

What’s your point in being on here then? Must have imagined the models picking up Friday’s hot spell a week in advance. What a nonsense comment.

Met Office automated forecasts are giving 35’C for Friday and 36’C for Saturday at Heathrow. Rare to see those temperatures being projected at short range never mind this far out, and they are normally increased as we get closer to the event.

34’C for Heathrow, with the Met Office giving 33’C. Yesterday’s temperature projection was 33’C just a couple of days before. They always get revised upwards nearer the time.