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MattStoke

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Everything posted by MattStoke

  1. MattStoke
    I don’t understand why people post very little about the GFS Parallel when it verifies better than the older GFS which is generally poor in these setups.
  2. MattStoke
    I see your ECM and I raise you the GFS Parallel....
  3. MattStoke
    Met Office raw data with a high of 33’C for Heathrow on Friday. Bearing in mind that the temperature projection often increases as we get nearer the time. As was the case for yesterday.
  4. MattStoke
    Well the ECM’s temperature projections for yesterday were way too low.
  5. MattStoke
    It’s the way all computer models work. The temperature they give is the maximum for the preceding interval rather than for that precise period of time. I think it’s for the preceding 6 hours but could be 3 hours. Either way, it only showed a high of 32’C today, and widely lower than that. About 6 degrees off across the board.
  6. MattStoke
    It’s the highest temperature projected for the preceding 6 hour period. The GFS temperature predictions are woeful. 6 degrees too low.
  7. MattStoke
    Even that has been a touch too low. Just shy of 38’C at Heathrow.
  8. MattStoke
    This a short warm blast, with relatively wet ground and uppers someway off record breaking. Imagine just how hot it could get with the perfect setup
  9. MattStoke
    I’m reliably told it’s now 37.2’C at Heathrow, by a friend who works at the Met Office.
  10. MattStoke
    37.2’C at Heathrow. 37’C at Northolt.
  11. MattStoke
    33’C at Heathrow at 11am.
  12. MattStoke
    31’C at 10am in Heathrow according to a contact at the Met Office.
  13. MattStoke
    Met Office automated forecasts now up to 35'C for Northolt and 36'C for Heathrow.
  14. MattStoke
    The Aperge still going for 36’C to the west of London tomorrow. The Arome is showing similar. All things considered though, I will take a punt at a maximum of 34-35’C.
  15. MattStoke
    Obviously we cannot see what the Met Office's internal computer model data is showing but their automated forecasts for Northolt and Heathrow are showing 34'C and 35'C respectively for Friday. That's an increase of 1'C for both locations since yesterday.
  16. MattStoke
    It'll be the maximum temperature within the preceding 12 hour period. The Aperge does though tend to overdo temperatures this far out under these setups.
  17. MattStoke
    A high of 36’C for Friday from the Aperge.
  18. MattStoke
    I normally defend the likes of the Met Office to the hilt but even the pros are often wrong beyond a week.
  19. MattStoke
  20. MattStoke
    What if the GEM is a cold outlier?
  21. MattStoke
    Thunder and lightning yet again in Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  22. MattStoke
    Big storm now. Torrential rain, frequent lightning and booming thunder.
  23. MattStoke
    Big storm now. Torrential rain, frequent lightning and booming thunder.
  24. MattStoke
    Flashing and booming away in Longton, Stoke-on-Trent now. I make that the 6th day of thunder and lighting so far this year, with 5 in the past week. Not bad!
  25. MattStoke
    Flashing and booming away in Longton, Stoke-on-Trent now. I make that the 6th day of thunder and lighting so far this year, with 5 in the past week. Not bad!
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