MattStoke

I’ve been stuck under the southern edge of this rain band all day. Now it’s slowly moving southward, I’m getting the heavier precipitation. Yet another washout to add the countless washouts already over the past few months.

I think this is the 6th time in the past 6 months that the North Midlands has been stuck under an almost stationary area of rain. Grim.

I've seen settling snow at low levels in the South of England in October before. If the air is cold enough and dew points low enough, snow can settle.

Could be some snow for the Peak District on Saturday. More likely cold rain or sleet to lower levels.

Well there’s always the lack of balloon data issue at Christmas

I don’t know but, the PV is all shook up.

Moved forward from previous runs.

I grew up in London and the only properly cold December I remember is 2010. South East winters generally suck.

In my lifetime I can only remember December 2010 being cold. December is normally more like an extension of Autumn.

On that basis, the UK has only had a handful of decent (in terms of cold) winters over the past century or so

Well for Stoke it's been: January to May - Boring June to October - Monsoon

GFS with another 80 mm here up to the 7th of November. I'm meant to be going to a fireworks display at Trentham Gardens on Friday, which was under water this weekend. With more rain to come before then, I hope it won't be cancelled.

Even worse on the 6z. 80 mm up to 7th of November for me. Added to the 2 inches we had this weekend, and there will be a lot more flooding.

Shame the unsettled weather will be coming back so soon. It's been a couple of days of beautiful Autumn weather following the latest deluge. Foggy and frosty start this morning. Now blue skies and sunshine.

I’m not surprised. Not only did this event deliver large amounts but the last 5 months have been ridiculously wet.

We’ve had about 5 of these spells over the summer and autumn so far but this was the worst one.

What summer?

GFS does love to overdo low pressure systems though. Hope that’s the case.

No trains out of Stoke this morning due to flooding in various locations. Means I’m going to miss my Fluid Mechanics lecture, because of too much fluid.

Should be about 2 inches by the time it clears. At least after this it looks dry for a few days.

Looks absolutely minging in Stoke..... ….and the weather doesn't look good either. Going to be a fun swim home from work.

Finally, a warning covering the Midlands. Not sure what took them so long when its been obvious for days!

Amazed there are still no warnings for here. Models all showing in excess of 50mm of rain for this area. We normally get warnings when half that is predicted!

These are based on probabilities and there is always going to be a probability of below average temperatures so they can’t just drop that category. These contingency planners are meant to be for businesses, policy makers and public services. There will be plenty of info and explanations with them. The Met Office aren’t going to just hand them out and say ‘There you go’. They're also just meant to be a guidance, which the Met Office forecasters won't stick rigidly to when discussing them with their clients. They're not pointless but they shouldn't be publicly available with the way they get misinterpreted.