MattStoke

Criticising the Met Office for always predicting above average temperatures globally when we keep getting above average temperatures globally seems a bit odd.

Rainfall totals up to 1pm Saturday from the Euro4 model. Around 55 mm for here.

The first 2 months of autumn have been milder than average, so why would we need a balmy spell for the predictions of a milder than average autumn to be correct?

Does this model actually update at 00z, 06z etc, give or take an hour depending on daylight saving hours, or is it like the other models that update within a few hours of those times?

Looking across the various model suites, still some uncertainty about the exact track of the frontal system on Friday and Saturday but it looks like we'll see the following totals: Wales and North West England: 3 to 4 inches, particularly over west facing hills. West/North West Midlands: 1 to 2 inches South West England and the rest of the Midlands: Around 1 inch, highest in the west and lower as one heads east Could be quite a bit of flooding, with Wales and North West England seeing rain continuously for around 24 hours or so.

I think the far west/north west will see 1 to 2 inches of rain, particularly Staffordshire and Shropshire. Wales and North West England bearing the brunt though, with 3 to 4 inches of rain there. Wouldn't be surprised to see an Amber warning for parts of Wales and North West England, and a yellow warning for parts of the Midlands.

ICON ramping up the rainfall total's Friday/Saturday again. Widely 50-60mm of rain for the Midlands and Wales. 80mm or so over hills. 24 hours or so of continuous rainfall for some. Aperge not too dissimilar but with the core of the largest rainfall amounts a little further south and including the South West.

Which raises the point that increased northern blocking, caused by low solar activity or otherwise, can also lead to some areas (including the UK) being exceptionally mild. All depends on where exactly that blocking sets up and what side of the blocking we're on. We saw a lot of northern blocking through this summer, which is probably why it was a poor one but with some extreme temperature spikes. Nothing is ever straight forward in the world of weather!

CET was 0.7 degrees above average for September and is bang on average for October so far.

Low solar activity is supposedly linked to increased northern blocking which can lead to colder winters for North West Europe. That doesn't necessarily mean colder temperatures globally though.

Don't know whether this has already been mentioned but, the Euro4 model is now on Meteociel - WWW.METEOCIEL.FR Meteociel propose de manière régulière le modèle à maille fine EURO4 0.04° du UK MetOffice (météo angaise) sur 5 zones (France, Nord-Ouest, Nord-Est... High resolution model that runs out to +52 hours. I believe it's one that the pros look at for short range detail.

Foggy morning Plenty of moisture in the ground to fuel the fog.

First mention of wintry precipitation this season.

ICON mounting up the rainfall totals for Friday.

Isn't that model just a higher resolution version of the GFS, drawing off the same data?

A recurring theme throughout the summer and Autumn so far. Frontal systems bringing copious amounts of rainfall to the central swathe of the UK. No doubt that pattern will change as soon as we're into the winter months and the systems that would have brought snow in those cold months will finally bugger off.

Probably hills only. Unless we get some very strong evaporative cooling.

Some wet snow for the top of Snowdonia and the Pennines. Cold rain elsewhere.

2 in a row? Every winter is a letdown compared to what the models show in ‘FI’

Sounds like high pressure to our north/north east into November, with low pressure to the south/south west. That would be an interesting setup in winter.

-8'C uppers into the South East. Would make for a nice and 'seasonal' Bon Fire night.

Looks like hills only on the higher resolution charts. Cold rain elsewhere.

Some nice slider lows, similar to winter 2017/18, with the Midlands being the battleground.

I think a lot of people don't realise just how much work the Met Office and other met services do besides public forecasts. Absolutely every business and service is affected by weather in some shape or form. Met services are an absolute asset.

All weather prediction is based on probabilities. That is the way of the science of meteorology, and of many sciences. That's why it's called a weather 'Forecast' and 'Prediction' and not a 'Promise'. Their contingency planners are meant to be guidance for businesses, policy makers, emergency services etc. Unfortunately, the media get hold of them and (purposely) misinterpret them, producing ridiculous weather stories and misleading the public.