Nick2373
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Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
Nick2373 replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Smack on I’ve said this on numerous occasions in here, but without fail every year when the models are offering BQ whether the SSW gets wheeled out of the Bully special prize room. -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
Nick2373 replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Because it’s never 100% granted the UK falls on the cold side of a SSW, and depending on the scale of the SSW it’s ether straight away or weeks down the line. It’s the same every year. Let’s be honest the models show milder conditions and then the SSW is wheeled out to the last chance saloon. -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
Nick2373 replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This is it so many hopes are pinned on a SSW, even yesterday I had two different quotes of cold is 67% and 70% the next page of cold to the uk from a SSW event. So by one page it had jumped 3% hey perhaps if we kept going by 10 pages it would have been 100%. -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
Nick2373 replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Going off the 06z looks like the Daffodils will be up Earlier this year. May save some turkey for Turkey skews on the Barbecue. -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
Nick2373 replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Why is it every year hopes are pinned on a SSW?? It’s not a 100% delivery of cold to the UK. And usually it’s a few weeks after a SSW event the UK sees something and as above it’s not 100% proof of cold. -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
Nick2373 replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The general consensus for the UK Is mild wet and cloudy during the winter periods, this is because the Uk is sat on a weather crossroad. We have the vast Atlantic to the left and Europe to the right Given the size of the Atlantic its usually the form horse delivering south westerly winds. What I find intriguing is the demise of our cold spell with the set up of the Canada USA Storm, its intenseness fired up the jet forcing Atlantic gunk our way. -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
Nick2373 replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The "once-in-a-generation" cold snap - which began in the Pacific Northwest That's a comment from the current storm in the USA, and I think we all know that once these synoptics set up across the pond it just feeds the usual SSW Winds our direction. No point try to make a silk purse out of a pigs ear. Anyway current 0z showing blink and you'll miss it cold followed by just above and then below average for two-three days anything after that is a stab in the dark. -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
Nick2373 replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I wouldn't even count on the new year being cold, above average temps seem to be the current output. Good old Blighty Hey! -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
Nick2373 replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
All I’m seeing at the minute is a brief NNW to NNE then back to Southwest winds Tue the 27th temperatures depending where you are 10c to 8c over that period no point dressing it up the good old UK default. -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
Nick2373 replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Going off the 06z unless there's a dramatic turn around in the next few days there is a trend for a brief North North West over the xmas period two days tops, then a return to just above average temps. There is no dressing it up, the usual North South split. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Nick2373 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Seven days out? I'd take that with a hint of possible due to the geographical position of the UK, and mild being the normal form horse. But then again things can change at the drop of a hat across the globe forcing a different weather pattern. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Nick2373 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The chart posted was t384?? perhaps this weeks loto numbers if possible please. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Nick2373 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
No one is suggesting or even trying to have a pop at you friend, they are pointing out a chart that far is FI to be fair. You would be lucky to even get an idea 7 days out at the minute. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Nick2373 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Unless we see a massive flip which is unlikely the week ahead at least is the usual winter setup then. North/South split colder the further North which geographically is expected, and mild to average with rain at times. I can’t help but to think soon as that storm kicked off in the USA it was curtains for the UK cold. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Nick2373 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It will change on the next run, one run and its game over west based winds etc, I'm seeing cold for two days then slightly above average and hovering around those temps with showers passing through. from the 23rd to 25th then colder 26th,27th. ? -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Nick2373 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Trend is what we are looking for, totally agree the comments change like the models. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Nick2373 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's quite baffling that's it posts are being chucked around considering the models can change within days. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Nick2373 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Morning KTom how you are doing been trying to get back with you lot forgot my password lol, anyway I wouldn't give anything past five days in the model world for granted agree there's certainly a trend there. Looking at the output I think just above average temp wise, dry but this can change at any time. -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January
Nick2373 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It’s like ground hog day in here in the mornings, same posters posting the same. I’ve got the winter bingo going 1. winter is over 2. more runs 3. Chucking the towel in 4. PV is to strong. really giving the current performance of the models I wouldn’t pay attention to anything past three days at the minute. anyways current outlook Dry sunny spells now and again with possibly hints of a pattern change from around the 21st perhaps. -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January
Nick2373 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
We’ve had cold spells fail at 24hrs, the Easterly back two years ago. Giving current performances of the models I’d say nothing is written in stone until at least two days out. -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January
Nick2373 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes it seems so Catacol, but as I alidade to this morning what a flip, now is it going to be there in 4hrs? -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January
Nick2373 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If it’s cloudy overcast grey dull nothingness you like well the 0z delivers, South west coasts may get some drizzle chucked in for good measure! But in all the years model watching I’ve never seen such a boring dull set up. Onwards to the 06z please few members struggled over the cold side 20% chance of something more cold who knows perhaps a flip?