Nick2373

00z still showing some sort of possible trend to something colder, far cry from yesterday when the month is gone brigade quotes where passed around. Today will be the one to watch to see if the trends keeps going to something more notable.

18z again showing more members dropping down below average, will this trend continue this time yesterday there were quite a few writing February off. Goes to show that anything past five days can sometimes not be the case.

06Z Not with out interest a few members drop below average from the 08th onwards one to watch are we sleeping walking into a scandi high?

Current offering from the 00z shows a steady dry pattern up to the 05th 06th, I wouldn't even bother trying to forecast after the 06th. There's to much scatter to even try to guess, The output by then could change three times by then enjoy the dry for now and if the sun comes out could be pleasant

The cold over Canada, America pumps up the Jet stream sending lows and stormy weather our way. Or at least lashings of rain for days sometimes weeks. Think of it as a balloon it’s pumped up and all the energy is going under it into the Atlantic picking up rubbish and sending barrelling towards the uk

But this is a typical British Winter the default is usually zonal etc, but as we know soon as that cold sets up over the pond we all now the outcome.

Now that's a odd one what's the GFS Op up to? are the rest of the suite going to follow it later today.

As per post yesterday where it could go ether way well its gone the way of below average, what this will bring who knows.

Looking at the 18z towards the end of the month it could go ether way, it could go above average, just on the cuff of average, or below average. quite a few days of model watching coming up.

Totally agree very interesting model watching this year for sure.

Going off the 06z I think for the south its going to be blink and you'll miss the mild air, Temps will stay under until the 23rd then slightly higher then back down around the 25th. Lets see what the 12z brings North South spilt perhaps.

Very marginal I think.

Double check that’s Rain for Swansea, Port Talbot etc, usual suspects Brecon Beacons North Wales. All you having outbid that is cold rain.

Current 00z Colder from the 14th to the 19th then a raise in temps, likely hood higher the elevation in the south snow on the hill's etc, sleet cold rain coastal areas. The 17th looks good for the higher ground snow wise usual suspects apply for both North and South, On the plus perhaps from the 19th onwards it could remain dryer than late which should give clear nights with a touch of frost for some. No winter wonderland yet.

Just a graph to show the stark reality of how hard its become to get any sort of cold to these shores, and back in the medieval warm period they thought it was warm.

So the pattern counties then, Cold, Mild, Cool, Mild ,Colder 15th,16th then mild with a possibility of something colder. Current CET For January 8.13c 3.97c above average yes its only 9 days of January at this rate unless something colder comes along records could be broken.

Same pattern then ? Mild, Coldish Mild etc. All this talk around SSW Events and as Metcast pointed out nothing in the offering another week of rain showers sunny spells typical UK January. The straw pot is once again jammed with options. Perhaps a Straw to grab around the 23rd GEFS 10hPa picking up something. ?

How’s it misleading? I’m sorry I’m I not entitled to an opinion, I’ve posted the GEFS model commented on what I think could be possible. I’d go as far to say the current pattern will be prolonged at least another two weeks.

Well going off the current 06z it looks pretty much the same conditions out until at least the 15th Jan, So that's unsettled with above higher temperatures occasional heavy rain prolonged with showers at times. The CET For Jan should be broken going at this rate.

Indications of a possible that's about it really, And they aren't a 100% guarantee of anything cold or even propagating down from my experience from what we are seeing is a typical British winter. I may be wrong but we all know the odds for mild vs cold.

Nice to see the SSW as been wheeled out of the winter only cupboard again, lets look at this without rose tinted glasses there are no tentative signs of any SSW Event currently and if this is a if it could be weeks before the UK see's any effect if any. So back to reality looking at the 00z today its business as usual and the same old same old.

End of the month maybe even then it's a small one. And then assuming it were to propogate down, but it's not at all a given 100% deliverance of cold it can take days to weeks and sometimes turn into nothing.

Nothing in the Zonal wind charts pointing out any SSW Currently.

Currently going off what we are seeing I should imaging this will be the warmest January on record, You know its bad when the SSW is wheeled out of the straw draw.

Going from the 06z it looks your basic January affair currently colder further North the jet stream forced further south bringing its usual Jan rain fest. Going forward there's muses of an SSW but we all know these sometimes do not always full in our favour. currently at the minute anything past the 09th up for grabs with slightly just above or below temps colder north snow on hills, warmer south with rain or showers your default British winter. Over the years of reading and watching others post and talk about the models the killer for any winter is when that raging PV sets up over Canada. If anything I've learnt with this Island is that in two weeks we could be staring down a best from the East or raging SSW's dragging the moisture with it, so chin up everyone its just the weather don't get sucked into it.