Nick2373

00z still shows the colder conditions from the 05th to the 09th then a warm up with quite a lot of spikes nothing spectacular in terms of disruptive weather for all, i think this will be the last chance saloon before the sun really kicks in mid month, for now overcast in the South with possilbe sleet showers Wednesday low levels, and some snow showers high ground.

In all fairness its never really been anything historic in terms of cold from what I was viewing its always been the usual cravat North South spilt, sometime people get dragged into the hype by over analysis to which there's nothing wrong with. After all it is an hobby the signs have been there for days in terms of a trend a coldish spell from the 5th to the 11th then South Westley's pretty much the revolving pattern of this winter, so going forwards a week of overcast but dry perhaps drizzle coastal areas for the South and a little bit colder North as you go.

March the 11th isnt April, the trend looks set at the minute to start a temp raise to above average with winds turning to south south Westley's that's what they are hinting at.

00Z shows the current cold spell rom the 05th to the 11th then a up tick in temps, but that's up for discussion on possible extended of the cold. The 08th see's an up tick but remains under the average for this time of the year, Snow rows remain pretty much Mehh for this period which could suggest more sleet rain than snow, but again the higher you go the better the chance of seeing snow from Mid Wales upwards Midlands etc should see some good snow. There's a lot of swapping and changing to come will theses' be upgrades or downgrades we'll see in the next two days or so.

Yes they are nearly the same, usual suspects apply Snow higher elevation rain coastal areas.

You need at least -10s at 850 initially and then to remain below zero at 850 currently it doesn't look quite cold enough, but this could change from what we seeing now it would deliver rain to the coast and high elevation Dartmoor, Brecon etc snow.

And that’s the worry with a chart like that it’s to perfect.

Seems people are get excited more so for the North, further South you go it’s not nailed, looking like something colder from the 5th to the 7th then above or close to average. The charts being pushed to the forefront are indeed dream charts and are they quite literally dreaming charts. Those rain spikes have been around a few days now along with the close to average temperatures remember trends tend to pan out.

The Jet stream in its current position won’t allow the cold to push down further southwards, the North will see the coldest conditions temps around and the South on average for this time of the year 8-9c

Add in the jet stream it’s going to cause a South North spilt, it will allow some moisture in and then the usual cravats apply. Snow up North high elevation South and rain to low levels. No super cold snowy conditions for everyone

GFS at 120 looks like a toppler to be honest

06Z delivers pretty much a trending situation in terms of something colder for 2 days, then hints of more South Westley direction thereafter. From reading other posts its showing in the teleconnections as well, Goes to show that SSW Don't always deliver what's wished for

Going off this mornings trends it's suggestive of Rain pushing from the south from the 08th March onwards usual cravats apply further North the more chances of snow.

00Z shows a cooler period from the 27th to the 2nd March then a warm up to just above, then looking at this mornings output yes its only one run something colder rom 6th March onwards to the 8th. going off what's showing a warm up suggestive of the Atlantic undercutting probably dragging South West winds with it, next few days cloudy nothingness if that's your cup of tea

06z brings nothing in terms of cold, looks like halfway house just above, nice if the sunshine is out

Not to shabby but sort of ok same time. In this period, spells of rain or snow, are more likely than earlier in the month, with a low chance that some wintry episodes could be disruptive, though northwestern areas most likely to see the driest conditions. Winds could often be from a northerly or easterly direction, and temperatures are more likely to be below-average than above-average overall, but later in the month, colder air will be fighting against a strengthening sun.

06z dont really set anything in stone, way to much scatter out past the 05th to even have a guess. A lot of spikes suggestive of rain but each run cant be taken as a dead set given.

One of two possibility's 1. Your looking for a reaction 2. your still learning the models hopefully Num 2, Anyway onward with the 18z a pattern emerging for something cooler from the 25th onwards and looks like the trend for something colder around the 5th of March is still there. Yes the 5th is days away in forecasting but still the trend remains which is what we want to see.

Yes spot on.

I think we will see a shift around the 5th the trend is certainly there back and foe in terms of colder weather.

00z GEFS Something not sitting right with this? I think the next few days are crucial in terms of cold, I think we may see something noteworthy from the 05th of March that's just my take on using this model for years.

18z brings nothing spectacular looks to be short lived cold spell followed by up and down temps then above average temps quite pleasant in the spring sunshine if not grey cloudy nothingness. the signs as of yet of a cold March seems to be fizzling out, not all SSW deliver hope I'm wrong.

I think its the case of once bitten twice shy, There as been so many times where it fails at the last hurdle. So many being cautious I should imaging

00z gives nothing but a guessing game from the 26th onwards looking more like a up tick to just above average then after that who knows GFS out on its own again get a feeling this will fall back inline with the rest and deliver a just above average outlook, If its overcast and dull you like this week is your cup of tea with perhaps some sun showing Wed,Thur in the west

06z still keeps the cold from the 23-27th then a warm up but a lot of scatter which suggests nothing really set in stone.