Nick2373

The warmest of the lot, it will be warm but nothing spectacular in hot terms. then after its a decline in temps back around to normal for some.

Umm just checked that myself 15c-16c no 7c-12c, And humidity anything from 75%-90% certainty not winter temps.

Depends which way you look at the current set up and conditions, if this pattern was to persists throughout the winter period we would see temps below or close to average. The winds have been pretty much for the last two months more of a Westly or North Westly direction will this continue is this question, the Jet stream seems to be putting the UK on the cooler side of the jet again will this continue. If these factors to persists into the winter months it may bring colder conditions, and then again the Jet could decided to go further North bring warmer conditions to the UK. The UK is pretty hard to suggest or even forecast at times weather wise but percentage wise the UK tends to have milder conditions because of other global factors. So really the default weather UK winter is 80% likely to be mild with some winter events being once every 30 plus years, the really last one i remember was 1982/83 here in the south west was the drifts and being snowed in since then its been pretty much Mah here in the South west wales in terms of cold stopping weather.

00z shows pretty much the same going forward up until the 05th September under average temps to just above average with ppn spikes around the 01st which delivers some rain for the South west. If i had to pick a pattern out of this i would go with what we have been seeing now snice July, Pluses of just below or slightly above temps up to the 11th with rain showers mixed in. There looks to be something more warmer around the 11th-12th with the GFS Op going off on a tangent but this is more than likely an outliner, there looks to be a middle ground trending. From my untrained eye there doesn't seem to be any indication of a India summer yet, But from the 03rd its all Fantasy Island with nothing to be taken as set in stone even at five days out.

I'm off to France Thursday for six days three in Paris then down to Disney, cant wait for some deaccent weather.

06z is a bit of a Nahh output do prefer to wait until the 12z, But as @Alderc 2.0 points out the GFS Is an outliner again from the 24th there seems to be a downward trend to something we've seen a lot of lately temps just under the average not a trend we want to see.

00z shows a up and down picture going forward and the trend for something more cooler seems to staying for around the 25th for two days then back up just above average. The 18th-19th shows some moister spikes suggesting rain showers heavy at times for most of the UK, No strong warmth of yet only the downward route towards autumn continues.

The pattern I’m looking at is for around the 25th I should imagine the temp will drop down to below for that period

00z Nothing settled or warm about this chart, pretty much the same as we have been seeing over the last few weeks. Sunshine showers temps average or just below seems this pattern is hell bent on staying put, We now march onward to Autumn or as it already begun?

Some people will say 5days is the furthest out, anything past that is sometimes referred or classed as FI Or fantasy Island.

Briefly visit's then as quickly vacates backwards to Spain, Greece France etc.

06z continues with its up's and downs of no prolonged warmth just few warmer days followed by cooler with showers chucked in. never know such a stubborn pattern.

Jet streams are typically continuous over long distances, but discontinuities are also common. The path of the jet typically has a meandering shape, and these meanders themselves propagate eastward, at lower speeds than that of the actual wind within the flow. Each large meander, or wave, within the jet stream is known as a Rossby wave. Rossby waves are caused by changes in the Coriolis effect with latitude. Shortwave troughs, are smaller scale waves superimposed on the Rossby waves, with a scale of 1,000 to 4,000 kilometres (600–2,500 mi) long, that move along through the flow pattern around large scale, or longwave, "ridges" and "troughs" within Rossby waves. Jet streams can split into two or fragment when they encounter an upper-level low, that diverts a portion of the jet stream under its base Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99056-model-output-discussion-mid-summer-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=4899449

Jet streams are typically continuous over long distances, but discontinuities are also common. The path of the jet typically has a meandering shape, and these meanders themselves propagate eastward, at lower speeds than that of the actual wind within the flow. Each large meander, or wave, within the jet stream is known as a Rossby wave. Rossby waves are caused by changes in the Coriolis effect with latitude. Shortwave troughs, are smaller scale waves superimposed on the Rossby waves, with a scale of 1,000 to 4,000 kilometres (600–2,500 mi) long, that move along through the flow pattern around large scale, or longwave, "ridges" and "troughs" within Rossby waves. Jet streams can split into two or fragment when they encounter an upper-level low, that diverts a portion of the jet stream under its base

00z Starting to show pretty much what the Met hinted, a warm up from the 08th to around the 11th then back down to just above average, not much in terms of rain for this period perhaps the odd shower. i think with the jet fragmenting there will be a dryer just above average surely the jet isnt going to fire back up over the UK.

I'm not a pro there are many more on here with vast knowledge than myself, But the answer to your question its very unlikely we'll see the repeat of June it looks to be settling down next week so we wont see the Atlantic smash lows into the UK with the jet stream fragmenting. Further South the warmer it will be South East coast may get 25c , Then it looks to be changing again to something cooler but not like we have seen of late.

00z Brings a warmish feature around the 10th to 15th then hints of something closer to average, but like its been pointed out this looks to be an Atlantic driven affair around this period. No definitive sign of warmth like we seen in June.

Its been written all over the GEFS For weeks i suspect a return to slightly warmer conditions from the 10th but perhaps only a four day affair with showers thereafter.

18z still the trend continues for something more summer like 10th of August the further South the warmer the set up i think. Probably will see the OP fall in line with the others to bring just above average temps warm but not to warm, winds swinging from South West to West South West during this period around the 14th looks to drop off to a more showery set up light showers but still warm than of late.

06z Will bring some thundery condition's around the 09th, then back down the 11th, then another impulse of heat the 15th with more stormy conditions as the warmth pushes up from the south and mingles with the cooler air.

00z shows some crumbs of comfort from the 10th of August until around the 14th, but we all know this is FI In weather forecasting it looks to be a four day affair before the temps reduced back down to average or below for this time of year. I think but not sure there is a Storm/Hurricane brewing in the Atlantic what effect this will have is one to watch

06z Still shows a change to the current set up from the 11th of August temps up and warmer than of late PPN Spikes seem to dropping with each run for this date, now hopefully this trend will continue hopefully this will remain over the course of the next week

00z shows some promise around the 11th August suggestion of patterrn change the wild swing in temps wont be that high they will probably drop slightly to give just above which the mean and control demonstrate. the OP always seems to go off on a tangent when there's a pattern change whiff in the air, for now lets see if the trend contuniues over the next few days.

Couldn’t have put it better myself! No one is perfect.

Why you ask? To be honest and quite frank your post have been if anything vague and close to a stopped clock is right twice a day. I’ve noticed that you post with all the big Synoptics and quite a lot of this does that and if this happens then we will see this. When in fact if I recall you looked at the long range and said the opposite to a warm and settled second half of July. The fact is being a professional an amateur or a pro, the weather past seven days is like the lottery. If you can get it right you are quids in. Please feel free to review all my posts regarding the GEFS all the way through July and I think it was pretty much smack on.