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Nick2373

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  1. Nick2373
    06z not that I pay much attention to it, but all I’m seeing is a Euro high setup from the 09th of Jan onwards nothing cold just anticyclone rubbish grey and gloomy
  2. Nick2373
    It would be considered it’s further North, it’s the same every winter North south spilt, snow etc Further North. Then come summer again North south spilt with all the sunshine and high temps further South, typical UK weather and thats Glasgow not very inspiring to be fair
  3. Nick2373
    12z I know where this is going no prolonged spell brief cold interludes with mild nothing spectacular about this output not surprised to be honest it was written on the cards this morning
  4. Nick2373
    Don’t think so looks like a UK high dry and ok then Collapsing back down on its self.
  5. Nick2373
    06z shows just below average temperature GFS hopefully is a outliner, but honestly looking at that dryish with some cold rain especially around the coast cooler conditions from around the 05th to the 09th then a split of the members 50/50 I know the 06z one you ignore well to one’s own perils.
  6. Nick2373
    The UK is a nightmare to get cold in and even winters conditions I.e snow there’s a lot being thrown into the mix next few days, and knowing the UK’s luck we’ll see pressure build over Europe blowing all chance of something notable
  7. Nick2373
    That’s not really precise if the high collapses and the new high fails to build after next weekend it will be normal service resumed, highs eventually decline there are so many factors in play. 7 days out is Fantasy Island as you know there is no guarantee prolonged spell being shown as of yet.
  8. Nick2373
    Yes that keeps getting pushed back abate the cold, the teleconnections in my opinion aren’t the best in predicting cold nirvana runs, they are good in pushing them back through
  9. Nick2373
    pub run shows nothing spectacular to be fair, a high which will bring clouds for many then a return to something more Atlantic driven. I suspect it will also get watered down the next few days so drying out a bit with nothing exciting so don’t dust of the sledges yet. You have to be realistic when looking so far out and the background drivers are also pointing to nothing what many desire
  10. Nick2373
    With the current synoptic showing on that run of the GEFS and I will say it called the last cold spell correctly. We will end up with a high system sat over the UK that’s the kind of set up you would like to see in the summer, that’s not screaming winter wonderland I’m afraid.
  11. Nick2373
    12z quite underwhelming to be honest, just under average temps nothing massively cold, more members going close to average that output is screaming high over the Uk dry for a time better than of late I suppose remote members trending towards
  12. Nick2373
    Well all the excitement and yet another garden path example the last two days, as it stands a bog standard affair close to average temperatures nothing to write home about goes to show that even when it seems everything is falling into place it still doesn’t mean we’ll have cold weather etc.
  13. Nick2373
    You won’t see cracking charts I.e cold weather snow ice etc for at least another week or two weeks
  14. Nick2373
    00Z On the grand scheme of things its not that bad, the ens members are pretty much 50/50 split the ppn spikes have dropped since yesterday the patterrn will flatten out close to average for this time of the year, anything is better than a total wash out, And remember anything past five days in my opinion is FI. Its like winter word bingo in here sometimes not long now I'll have a full house just need the word throwing in the towel.
  15. Nick2373
    00z not much on offer here a picture building of the usual xmas set up perhaps a few cold shots short lived at that with good old SW Winds taking their winter residence over the UK, I would love nothing more than a cold spell for Xmas but i think its time to face reality the pot of straws is empty. No trends for anything but high ppn spikes/moisture the only hope from the ens scramble is there's a 50/50 split after the 26th of December so could be undecided but i think i know where my money is.
  16. Nick2373
    I know the 12z is starting to roll out but the 06z is not without interest, after the 21st it’s a mess looks like anything up for grabs. But what’s more interesting is the ppm spikes moisture spikes are dropping on every run, I think there’s a pattern change coming and it’s going to catch everyone out.
  17. Nick2373
    Spot on Sir!!!
  18. Nick2373
    Well if temps of 9c to 7c are mild these days must be heatwave conditions if we hit 11c. bog standard winter temps and with the moisture level ppn spikes dropping from the 21st onward to the big day which is ten days away FI There's quite a lot of water to flow under the bridge yet, in my years of model watching i have seen a flip 24hrs before showing cold to normal UK winter weather. Come Ktom its ten days away you know that in the world of weather watching that's FI.
  19. Nick2373
    12z don’t show much in terms of cold, but what I’m finding interesting is the flattering of the moisture levels looks to be falling over consecutive runs.
  20. Nick2373
    06z All I'm seeing in that massive birds nest is something of a North North west flow from the 22nd to the 25th there are more members on the cooler side than the mild side, but the amount ppn spikes would suggest showers perhaps wintery over the higher ground. There is a lot of settling down to be had over the next few days before a definitive pattern can be nailed on in terms of wind direction and temps.
  21. Nick2373
    Even if there was the downward effect may not be seen for weeks, and even then its not 100% on delivering cold to the UK.
  22. Nick2373
    Agreed that monster high of the bay of Biscay looks primed to push further up and out into the Atlantic towards the PV, But that PV Looks pretty impressive beast at the mintue like running into a brick wall, some fragmentation in the middle would help i should imagining.
  23. Nick2373
    00z looks to be signalling something under average from the 21st to the 24th then the Mean,Con,Op all go above average for the big day then back down the 26th interesting output but i think we will see a watered down version there is way to much scatter to even pick out a trend or a set weather pattern.
  24. Nick2373
    Lol, It never even started on there lets just say there are sensible posters on that site.
  25. Nick2373
    Back to the models. 18z shows the uncertainty past the 21st of December its an absolute mess making anything out of that, i would say a cold shot 21st to the 23rd then something around average for the time of the year 24th 25th the ppn spikes are starting to build which could point to more unsettled weather but this is still 10 days away FI of course but looking at that there's a pattern change coming which way is to be decided.
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