Nick2373

??? Time will tell i suppose the trend for something wetter windy as been model in the gefs for days which shows from the 21st onward to the 25th its four days not weeks i stand by what i said I've been seeing on the gefs a lot of people knock it but if and it pretty good at picking up trends/patterns. Zonal no transient yes to something dryer and given that anything past 5 days can sometimes be classed in the realm of FI the models may not always be spot on the money.

Agree the trend seems to be popping up on each run ties in with the post i placed above, something dryer from the 25th onward temps to be decided but should imagining given where i think the high will set up could be looking at possibly North East or Eastly direction

00z looks like we will have a milder windy conditions for 3 maybe four days then we see height raises around the 25th, where some are getting mild setting in for a while I'm not sure. the picture i.e trend seems to be pointing towards something more pleasant and dryer again after this little blip, i think with the high pressure setting up once again we'll see a decrease in terms of temps closer to the date i should imaging hovering around the 30 year mean. Mild Wet Windy yes for a few days then high pressure setting up shop again from the 25th onward

00z pretty much sums up the next few days, colder with a slight feature pushing in Wednesday nothing special perhaps a snow shower if lucky this ties in with the Met and BBC for the South then something more wet and windy from the 21st to 24th then looks to be settling back down 26th onward. the feature for Wednesday looks to be more in favour of a French visit.

00z shows currently where we are and where the next direction of travel may be, like some have alluded to in post look towards Scandi there looks like some sort of pattern change coming up for the 27th onwards but I’m happy with the output it’s dry we aren’t under a Atlantic influence dry just above temps or below that’s good better than being underwater which many have.

Pattern change coming up usually proceeds a mess.

No this is for the date from the 15th-23rd of Jan.

Often cloudy across clearing central and southern areas at first. Thereafter, turning colder from the North, with brisk northerly winds likely developing widely across of the UK, bringing a risk of snow showers, most frequent across the north. Temperatures remaining cold, and a marked wind chill especially in the north. There is risk of unsettled weather pushing in from the south through this period, which could lead to a band of snow and sleet where it meets the colder air across the country. Confidence is low with regards the timing of the arrival of any such disturbance, but there is an increasing risk of something potentially disruptive at some point in this period. Widespread frosts continue to be a feature by night, with a risk of ice in places. Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Wed 10 Jan 2024

Wow just read it.

Through this period, the greatest likelihood is that high pressure will remain the more dominant influence on the weather, most likely centred somewhere to the northwest of the UK, with winds from the north or north-east perhaps more frequent than usual, with generally reduced amounts of precipitation. There is an increased chance, compared to normal of cold conditions along with the associated impacts from low temperatures. Even within a predominantly more settled pattern there is a still a chance that frontal systems could move in from the west or southwest at times, which while they would likely bring an interlude of slightly milder, more unsettled weather, for a time, this would also introduce a risk of snow and ice where it meets the colder air in place across the UK. Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Wed 10 Jan 2024 Yes i posted it early Bizarrely they updated it at 12:30 but they haven't updated next week yet?

Through this period, the greatest likelihood is that high pressure will remain the more dominant influence on the weather, most likely centred somewhere to the northwest of the UK, with winds from the north or north-east perhaps more frequent than usual, with generally reduced amounts of precipitation. There is an increased chance, compared to normal of cold conditions along with the associated impacts from low temperatures. Even within a predominantly more settled pattern there is a still a chance that frontal systems could move in from the west or southwest at times, which while they would likely bring an interlude of slightly milder, more unsettled weather, for a time, this would also introduce a risk of snow and ice where it meets the colder air in place across the UK. Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Wed 10 Jan 2024

That will be correct, its the usual North/South split its been model for a few days to be fair the higher the elevation the more chance of snow.

Why is everyone shocked like this weren’t being model, it was being model/trending on the GEFS yesterday. And a few did mention this onl to be dismissed

Exeter deep dive is out for today worth a watch but not for the faint heart Southern people. Knife edge stuff I'll say that

No they wont but like my post lets see what the 12z brings, but there as been a trend there for a few runs for something less colder for at least the South.

It is Tuesday

06z well i don't know what Exeter are seeing but all I'm seeing on the 6z is just under average temps with a climb to just above from the 22nd onwards, South looks to be falling to just average conditions on every run, I cant wait for the 12z to roll out because quite frankly that's a rubbish chart if its cold and snow your after.

Yep that's what i always look for when viewing the GEFS, I think personally it gives a good idea to where we may be heading.

I'm seeing that its shifted the deeper purples have some what drained

Absolutely bizarre here tonight two ECM runs both showing different outcomes seriously clearly it’s struggling to find the correct pattern. If and this is if the ECM continues to show the same pattern on every run not different ones then the knees can start jerking.

Please remove admin if not allowed, quite a interesting update from the Met long range

Hence what I replied to you earlier

??? Ummm nope I’m just saying what I’m seeing I’ve been posting on here for many years, what I’ve learned is that even past 5 days is FI. Be at your own peril getting all excited about something that can go 50/50 from the 11th onwards seasoned people should know this. Do you really think you can call that after the 11th ? Remember two years ago when we were looking at a winter wonderland only for it to be taken away at 24hrs. It’s not set in stone and I should imagine the models will look different tomorrow for better or worse.

12z Southwest way nothing spectacular to be honest from the 7th to the 11th cold then it’s all over the place after that anything up for grabs members 50/50

Euro high I’m thinking from that output