Nick2373

06z shows pretty much a showery wet affair the further west you go from around the 25th, the signal for something warmer seems to be slipping away on each run now towards the end of the month the current hurricane is playing havoc but going off this we can see which way it may go.

Until this blow's its self out we could be seeing wild swings, Or this could fire up the Atlantic.

00z i wouldn't have any confidence past the 23rd of September with the track of Nigel, this will play havoc on the models over the next week i should imaging.

Eh? That makes zero sense. The remnants are pretty likely to head towards the UK / Iceland not Canada. What I'm saying is that as it heads up towards Canada way not direct to Canada it burns it self out Mid Atlantic. By Friday its expected to be tropical storm status moving NNE.

That is from the US model NOAA Lad., That is Margot the track and position as been a consistent Northwards into the Atlantic for the last few days and since its formation.

Margot is currently over the central area of the Atlantic and weakening the further towards Canada, So the effects may be less than the models are predicting time will tell.

But isnt forecasting anything past 5 days FI ? 23rd,24th September is 10 days away and like it was pointed out yesterday to me things can change due to influences further upstream. The point I'm trying to make with the GEFS Is that over the last few runs over a few consecutive days the current period of rain heavy at times followed by showers was showing via trending. I mentioned there is a possibility of temps being close to average or just below and that we aren't going to see a burst of high temps like last week, I tend to when viewing the gefs look for the trend past five days which sometimes is quite obvious and sometimes there's nothing but a mess.

06z pretty much unchanged in terms rain heavy at times to showers, I know not many people rate the model but when you have a consistent picture showing sometimes it cant be shrugged of because its five days out. The picture looks pretty much set, wind rain heavy at times with temps closer to average or below.

I tend to look at trend with the GEFS And see if there is any difference in the ppn spikes they have been pretty much the same now for the last three days with very little change, It will be a up and down affair the 10 days or so from the 17th onward with temps below and just above with heavy rain or showers at times. with temps closer to average cant see anything remotely warm or super warm like of late.

00z speaks for its self really, useable weather up till the 17th then its dig your wellies and umbrellas back out. Looks like Autumn arrives back in the west and then spreading Eastwards paying for the warmth of late.

I didn't mention it heading North, i said North West projection into Bermuda, Current path and wind speeds of Hurricane Lee.

I'm not really clued up on the upstream effects of hurricanes its possible they can but its also possible to force cooler air to, Lee is on a North west projection and Margot dead North. Its those two depressions building behind i think are the ones to watch, if they build quicker they could force Margot further on a Westley track. Like i mentioned its way above my understanding but interesting at the same time.

06z with the current track of Margot, which is due North into the Atlantic there will be a lot of swapping and changing during the next few days Margot is expected to turn into a hurricane the output will no doubt change again and again and with the two cyclone depressions starting to form below i think the effect upstream is critical to the UK weather system over the next few days. I would say that nothing past the 16th September at the moment is a given in terms of heat returning etc.

00z wow talk about back to earth with a bump looks amazing from the 17th onward if its rain and wind you after. This tie's in with the jet stream being forecast right over the UK from the 16th of September

There is rain about yes, but theses will be in the form of showers temps around the 16c-17c with wind varying from South to South Westley given the direction this may bring a North South spilt for around that date, so the ppn could drop away by then. To far out to even say 100% chance of this remember 7 days is the furthest you'll get to being close even then as Seb pointed out there is around an 80% chance it will be right.

00z does show the control and op running off to temps way below average but these are 10 days out, if i was to read into these these would suggest a pattern change for around that date or what could be causing this swing is the new formed storm Lee which is expected to turn into a hurricane at the weekend Anything past 7 days in my opinion is FI Fantasy Island there are so many factors in play its like playing pin the tail on the donkey past 10 days

Yes this left me baffled a bit, its going towards a North South split, wetter the further North dryer conditions further South, A classic UK Set summer and winter periods

Going off last nights 18z run I'm failing to see where theses Atlantic lows are that's been mentioned? from looking at the London GEFS the indication is the further south you it looks more likely to retain nicer weather showers but very few and far between look at the levels at the bottom there is no massive spikes to suggest downpours. Temps to look to be declining but will remain just above the 30year mean when i use this model i look for trend and from the 13th to the 19th the trend is there to remain just above average, towards the end the model is toying with the idea of something warmer again which could suggest high pressure pushing back into the uk once again.

The long range models have been absolutely disastrous in prediction this year, they were showing glorious temps for August etc only to be turned on they heads. looking into the model world and given the geographical position of the UK I wouldn't take anything past ten days as a given.

The patterns could well be effected with the current build up of cyclone formations out in the Atlantic time will tell, the latest heat blast we are experiencing was connected to the recent hurricane if I'm not mistaken.

It would be a very boring model thread if we listened to two people wouldn't it? Others are stating possibility's or likely hood which at times is proceeded with an attachment of a model. Quite like the suggestion and model along with your comment.

00z shows a decline in temps around the 12th-13th but nothing spectacularly cold, there have been comments there's hints of more seasonal weather on the horizon. Going off the current output there are more members over the 30 year mean than below, i think there will be incursions of showery weather at times but currently there is nothing to suggest lows barrelling in of the Atlantic i think the will be a levelling of the pattern to something just above average bringing pleasant day time temps with cooler nights. Years and years of looking at this output there isnt a clear set in stone pattern there is and its something to watch over the next few days.

00z shows the peak of warmth then back down a tad to high pressure reinserting its self before another cool down to something less warmer. There after there looks to be a trend of another high pressure system setting up, I think this produce a broken cloud sunshine set up in places but that far out is FI Could change flip many times before the final solution

00z shows the climb in temperature around the 02nd, the high pressure sticks around for five days producing temperatures 23-24c higher in sheltered places from wind, then we are are starting to see a trend for something more closer to average and even hints of under average but that’s a long way out. For now something much better than we have seen so get out enjoy the sunshine while it’s here.

00z shows the raise in temps for 5 to 6 days then a drop in temps with moisture spikes which suggests cloud and showery conditions but pleasant between showers from the 08th onwards.