Nick2373

Absolutely spot on the UK Sure as a special way of locking in patterns when we really don't need them. This is the problem when looking at long range charts graphs etc, sometimes humans only see what the mases are happy with. Credit to anyone who called July to be this big hum dinger

How many days out is that? that's in the far flung fields of FI To be fair, for the UK To brake out of the current pattern we need all those low's and highs sitting across the globe to shuffle around. Currently the jet stream is forecast to dip further South all this allows is the Atlantic a free ride into the UK. There have been musings of the second half of August being warmer but given the current rut/pattern we are in I'm not holding my breath.

00z shows the continued theme of lows barrelling in the the low south tracked jet stream, i have never seen the GEFS So consisted so currently warm around the 31st July 01st Of August then another low systems as per the ten day trends gets sent through the UK. Very much at the mintue like 2012 cooler weather with rain heavy at times followed by brief dry spells. goes to show really that all the long range weather forecasts are pie in the sky and guess work, pretty much like the stopped clock quote. For now anything past seven days is FI until we see a shift in the jet from its current position its pretty much stuck in systems off the Atlantic the further South the more pressure on the Azores high.

06z don't really bring much cheer this afternoon with most of its members on the cooler side for the next week or so it looks to be a a mish mash of settled, unsettled, at times . But as @ANYWEATHER Points out not so reliable as of late which usually means with the GEFS It could go ether way with this model it's looking at the trend i personally find and there isnt one currently, pretty much what we saw in the mets ten day trend where the jet has a slight change in direction and this is what the GEFS Is picking up.

00z up to the 07th looking at the pattern It looks to be the case of a up and down in terms of weather systems or wind change look at the scatter for around the 01st there is a increase in temps etc then back down around the 04th. Pretty much like what's showing for the 27th of this month this will be pretty much for now I'm thinking going from other posts and long range etc don't think we'll see anything mean full until mid August.

Some up most of this month in favoured areas, Warm cooler back to warm then cooler are we going to see this patterrn the whole of August is the question

00z shows the same pretty much settled unsettled with rain showers heavy at times don’t think we’ll see anything in substantial warming until the second week of August. Sod’s Law that in the summer we fall on the cool side of the jet stream.

That's a cracking way to put it.

00z shows a mixed bunch going forward up till the 03rd of August it seems the temps will be up and down with mixes of sunshine and showers next week, Even the 03rd of August looks to be an uptick in temps for a day so then back down, i don't think we going to anything in terms of steeled until at least second week of August until then this pattern is pretty much here for the foreseeable.

Wow just sums next week up really, As Weather history points out above anyone foe summer gales.

18Z Takes us back again to something more in line to what we have been seeing the last few weeks, it lines up with a video posted yesterday on what the Met think is happening the next few weeks regarding the high and low pressure sectors dotted around are doing. It show's the Uk in a low pressure set at the minute until at least the second week of August, from looking at the 18z it seems to be the consensus for now.

A stopped clock is right twice a day.

06z delivers a glimmer of something more closer to average the 01st of August onward with the control and op going off on one. could see a halfway house over the next few days with something just above average in August with less rain showers etc. Its out in FI but still there are changes coming but how warm how settled as yet to be settled.

00z picks up where the 18z left off, the theme for something warmer perhaps around the 01st of August as per this mornings post trend is our friend. the op goes of the scale but i should imagane this will drop back down later in line with the rest to something just above average that period.

18z Still shows the temps reaching average then below for the foreseeable, from the 25th onward to the 29th lots of spikes in terms of moisture/rain, so unsettled week for the West more so. But then around the 01st August there looks to be a split in the members. This usually suggests with the GEFS something of a patterrn change but this by all means doesn't guarantee it at 100%. But its the constant signal its been showing over the last few days, trends is what we are looking for.

18z Not much in terms of any change for the foreseeable, below average temps going into August the million dollar question is this going to continue into the depths of August. According to some weather outlets the chances of warm or hotter conditions are pretty low until the middle of August. Are we seeing a typical British summer or a effect of systems further afield.

Goes to show really that any long forecast be it computer of person cant always get it right, A few people said that July would be a bust few weeks back and some heralded a return to warmer conditions. anything past seven days needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.

The UK In terms of patterns always seems to get stuck these days for weeks, then when it switches back I've never seen such consistent patterns of late.

00z Doesn't bring any cheer in terms of warmth a fraction above average to below average up till the 24th-25th, perhaps a hint of something warmer from around then till the 29th then back below average. this pattern seems to be locked in pretty much like Junes heat, there will be workable days but not wall to wall sunshine the west to North Westley winds look to remain for a while with with the chance of warm or hotter conditions dropping by each run.

00z shows nothing spectacular for next week or so, something of a raise in temps around the 24th, pretty much what's being shown for the 15th then hints of a change around the 28th perhaps? control and few toying over the 30 year mean.

Do you think that sometimes there's to much over analysis of long range forecasts? after all a stopped clock is right twice a day, heat will return yes that is a law of averages bit like betting on horses you have a winner after a time.

It seems this is the case even in the winter, When chasing the cold charts with heaps of snow I think even with all the computer modelling and runs are not 100%. Anything past 7 days is FI In the weather world.

18z still continues the theme of unsettled with temps just hovering below or on average plus side of things the amount of rain seems to drop next week, it seems for now or at least the next 7-10 days the weather continues with temps lower than what we seen last July, 40c last July down to 20c this year.

Spot on KTom I think there is sometimes a over analysis at times from people the weather is a fickle thing and will do want it wants even if its not to script.

00z Brings pretty much the same synoptics going forward, A raise in temps to just average from the 19th to the 21st then back down to below then back up 23rd for one day. Looks like surges of warm air pushing up South Westley then swing back to NNW West winds, showers built into this no real sign of warmth yet.