Nick2373

06z shows a mild blip with some rain behind it for the 15th could have some cracking storms chucked into that. then back down to just below the 30 year mean winds probably from the Northwest direction pretty much the same as what we've been seeing of late. after the this the 21st onwards seems to show something more settled less rain then after this looks like its up for grabs 50/50 split to something more warmer perhaps, i think this month will be remembered for heavy showers and thunderstorms typical what we should have in July in the UK.

This month is falling being in terms of UK Monthly average which usually gives daytime high temperatures to average in the low 20s then early in the month warming up to 23-24 C. Currently temps for my area are not exceeding 18c some days and add in the wind factor making it feel like 14c, The gefs as shown this below the 30 year mean for at least two weeks now even when the sun as been out its still not warming up.

00Z Continues the temps below average up till the 20th 21st then hints of it going ether way after the 21st, but have noticed the up tick in ppn around that date. Met going with a unsettled look but then something more settled but with the chance of thunderstorms and heavy rain showers, no big signs of temps like what we seen in June the heat staying at its summer retreat around the med.

00z the consistencies of late with the GEFS Are remarkable, this model usually struggles past five days hats off. Anyway going forward after the brief you fall asleep and miss it warmth its back to usual business with lower than average temps and some rain.

You would be thinking correct, i read back few weeks ago when i googled the effects of high SST's and the opinion was that this type of set would deliver more unsettled average weather to the UK.

00z wow I've never seen such consistency in terms of trends, it seems we are locked into this pattern just like last month when we were locked into warmth. Not as cold but just under the mean, where the sun does come will give some warmth due to the time of the year but for now its cool up till the 21st but in the weather world anything past 5-7days is FI,

18z shows still below average temps then a brief warm around the 07th,08th bringing humid conditions then a cool down to below average, with this there should be some thunderstorms intense at time in areas some rain pushing in from the west 10th,11th mix this in with thunder storms and the could get even more lively. Then cooler conditions out until the 15th, then hints of something perhaps warmer than of late.

The theme to be fair for at least the next five to seven days i would say yes, but anything past that is FI.

00z the theme continues with a peek of heat around the 09th a brief surge of a day then back down to below the GFS as been quite consistent of late, there looks to be one of those July's where we'll see showers thundery at times but when we get the sunshine feeling pleasant so not all doom workable weather in that mess a typical British summer under the good old Atlantic set up.

18z carry's on the theme for cooler weather up till the 09th a brief affair of something warmer then back under just below average till the 11th. After that there looks to be trend/pattern emerging from the 12th to something above average, for how long to early to tell but there are hints of something of a change.

The current runs on the GFS Have been pretty good of late, it picked up the cooler spell and persisted with it, it also picked up on the brief blink and you'll miss it warm up on the 07th-08th. I know nothing is set in stone past day 5 but i must admit its been good of late.

Yes it has, I've always followed this model looking for trends etc and of late its been pretty much spot on.

00z continues the theme for a brief you blink and miss it warm up, then temps back down to just below average. This as been showing for days now but is this pattern going to stick around for July is the question.

Wow there seems to be some disagreement here today, Anyway 00z shows temps still under the 30year mean up till the 07th then currently suggesting a two day spike in temps then back down with most members on the cooler side, will it switch to longer spell of something warmer is the question. going from this mornings 00z I'm thinking something quite similar to what we are seeing now, sectors of warmer air advocating up then be pushed out by more lower west driven temps. A week away by any means is a tough one to forecast but if the trend continues with what's seen on that chart it could be the case.

00z Continues the theme of unsettled next week with temps just below the 30 year mean , a stark contrast in temp variant's less than a week ago 27c next week max 17c From the 07th onward also now seems to be showing pretty much of what we'll see next week suppressed temps showers possibly thundery at times.

18Z Still shows next week pretty much of a cooler theme with showers perhaps thundery at times, Then a possible push in just above average temps around the 7th but a blink and you miss it then temps back down. The 07th looks like some sort of change perhaps in wind direction then back, at this stage and the way the models are playing 5 days is pretty much at best not an accurate forecast

06z doesn't really resolve much going forward around the 7th,8th the GFS Op goes off on one around about those dates as per this mornings post i think this will fall in line with the mean and control to give average temps, with showers possibly thundery at times in areas.

00z still shows it unsettled into next week then around the 08th mess of spaghetti what is this going to bring? if i was to have a pop I'd say something just above average for the south at the minute but its 50/50 in terms of splits so could go ether way.

The UK weather if anything sometimes can be guaranteed to locking patterns in for week or longer, Until the jet stream decides to swing back North the current set up could stick around. After all this is typical British weather and we have been spoiled during May and June looking at last nights 18z the temps are suppressed below the 30 year mean there were hints of a possible warm up to just above average around the 09th-10th but this seems to be pushing back on runs.

00z brings back the trend for something unsettled currently we see something more cooler from the 28th onwards into the weekend, cool showery seems to be the current trend.

In all fairness we have been spoiled over the last two months in terms of sunshine, a pattern change was inevitable at some point in reality we are seeing a typical UK summer set up. it wont be all doom and gloom the models will adjust to the current signal, i think where the sun does come out for extended periods it will feel pleasant

18z well i think by going from some of the above post's we can see where we are heading at least for now, as previous post's the models are flip flopping and cant pin the finer details of the impending change to our weather pattern. if they were to come off on that chart it will feel much cooler of late, plus moisture spikes picking up anyone for rain.

06z I don’t really pay much attention to, I use it and look for trends the main which personally think are the ones to see a better picture are the 00z and 12z. The models will flip and flop over the next few days currently everything is pointing to a cooler start with possible rain/showers. The cold air pumping out of Canada is forcing the jet stream to fire up, yes pushing south but this will engage Westerly’s perhaps for a few days or even longer. It all depends on the strength of the lows being churned up in the Atlantic, the next few days will be crucial to where the UK weather goes because of the feature over the pond. If I was to have a punt I would say look at the next few days and I think that’s the pattern we going to see, temps up then down etc with heavy showers pushing through perhaps thunderstorms chucked in, don’t forget the Atlantic at the minute is warmer SST’s are high what this will do well I’m not sure, but all the warmth jet digging south warm sun could encourage evaporation and then dumping lots of rain somewhere.

06z brings a picture of a up down temperature outlook from the 27th which would suggest a pattern of thunderstorms with such temperature gradient. Going into July I think the temperature will be just above average for two to three days before another pluse of cooler air pushes through, the current trend points to more sunny days and showery days trends are what we look for I suspect the 12z will show this also.

00z continues the theme for a unsettled picture from the 26th then after that it looks like something of a up and down scenario which could point to more of showery set up, but with the wind direction and current SST In the Atlantic these could be quite heavy at times West etc. The temps just under the 30 year mean don't think well hope not will come into fruition