Nick2373

The sea temps being high wouldn't promote highs i think with the cold air coming from Canada into the Atlantic would create more in terms of higher moisture collecting and given wind directions send then UK bound, Correct me if I'm wrong anyone.

00z pretty much shows what the clusters are showing from what MWBeard posted, Cant see the temps dropping below the mean think we'll see a just above average but that chart is bonkers for this time of the year, North West winds yes but the model over doing the temps don't think its factoring the time of the year but then again it is the UK.

I cant remember what year it was, but remember a similar set up here down the west coast the UV And temperatures combined brought a lot of low cloud and pockets of mist on a fresh NW Wind. A very strange set up.

This don't come as a surprise i think being level headed and looking at it from a percentage preceptive it wouldn't have been long in happen, we've been spoiled of late with all this wall to wall sunshine especially in the west. things evenly balance themselves out

00z still shows something of a more settled spell 22nd onward up until the 27th then a gradual drop in temps to something just above average but quite possilbe with some thundery showery interludes. this seems to be showing a little trend on the GEFS And as done for the last few days, so currently warm then something more cooler into July.

06z what does this show us, something certainly warmer from the 23rd to the 27th then current indicators suggest something cooler from the 29th onward as Mike above points out there is a change in the pattern. Now whether this will bring a more Atlantic driven set up where the high is pushed away or will the high hold on? whatever the outcome its been a cracking start to the summer months. We need the rain something terrible at the minute, so if it changes to a more Atlantic driven set up it could be a good thing for many not all good things last my Mam used to say

00z still continues the theme for a thundery showery set up from the 19th till the 24th June here in the West, something more settled after that then from the 28th onwards nothing set in stone but could go one of two ways, there's a split between something just above average or warmer, Touching on what Crewecold says we could see cloudy humid conditions late June into July.

06z continues to show a unsettled picture from the 19th onwards but for now a four day sunshine here in the west with cloud rolling back in Friday warm in the sunshine where there is breaks in the clouds Sat,Sun more overcast . some have mentioned a rinse repeat cycle could this be the pattern for the rest of the summer.

And that's what I'm trying to get at or I'm i reading it wrong? the temps are climbing in the Atlantic which in turn powers up the jet stream and sends systems on a more northly track.

So there is a possibility given the SST Are off the scale we could see a stronger Atlantic jet stream and a northward shift of the storms/thunder if they keep climbing at that rate

00z Still showing the trend for something more unsettled from the 19th onwards showers, sunny spells, thunderstorms, currently warm then a drop down in temps to just above average this as been showing for a few runs now and we all know sometimes trend is our friend but some times our foe.

06z shows what your thoughts are, i agree with these there will be days of something workable with breakdowns in between. the drop in temps and high ppn levels have been showing and trending for a few days from the 19th, the Atlantic as been pretty much dormant of late, I'll be very surprised if the UK Can keep the holding pattern of dry wall to wall sunshine.

06z If there is a trend to follow or believe anything past the 17th looks to deliver more in terms of thunderstorms half and half sunny at times, reminds me of 2020 or was it 2021 we had a lovely dry start and then middle of June became hit and miss.

To be honest i wont, we have had three weeks of pure unbroken sunshine here in Port Talbot South Wales, and it will be nice for it to feel cooler.

00z this morning continues the trend for something of a showery input from the 09th, then the 17th Wow the ppn spike showing biblical proportions of rain and temps dropping to just above average. something to watch over the next few days, Is the Atlantic wakening up just in time for Glastonbury.

00Z Continues the theme for a showery output from the 09th onwards above average temps in the south west the trend as been there a few days now then after the 13th temps just above average but remaining warm. could be in for a treat if its thunderstorms you like further west.

12z continues the theme for a slow descent to something cooler but that’s FI at the minute, but the trend certainly continues for showers possibly thunderstorms around the South West

06z as this morning keeps the trend for something of a showery theme front the 09th onwards in the SW, one to watch colder air pulled in could bring some cracking storms.

00z keeps it warmup till Friday with a breakdown around the 09th to something of a shower set up with possible thunder storms.

06z shows a fine week next week with temps what we should expect this time of the year, depending on wind direction could make it feel cooler along the south east coast. Then from the 01st June onwards looks to be dipping to just above average with some ppn spikes showing.

Not really, didn't we see that famous flip winter 2022 24hrs before a snowy Navara? the models where showing awesome syntonic then it was pulled from under our feet.

A cut of low would bring rain to the South West is that correct.

Correct the GFS swings more than a child's swing in the local park, if anything it will fall in line with the others as you point out its inconsistent most days but when it shows what people want to see its the best thing since sliced bread

00z brings nothing set in stone quite a lot of scatter after the 23rd, could go ether way or an half way house. knowing the luck we have in the UK it will be the cooler option. early days yet but one to watch.

As it stands looks like May at least for the next two weeks is going to be just above or below average with rain/showers with thunderstorms possible if thermal factors come into play, will this trend continue for the whole of the month is the question?. A lot of scatter on this mornings GEFS as it stands, if i was to have a guess i think we will pretty much see the same pattern continue into June.