Nick2373

I don't think model watching is for you then, because the default for the UK is usually mild conditions going into the winter period so I'm afraid there will be quite a few posts that you wont accept.

Nws agree I'd love nothing more than a winter Xmas card outside, cast your mind back to the year before last when the models were showing a winter wonder land for it only to flip at the 48hr mark if my memory serves me right. So sometimes the vast amount of information from across the board can sometimes be incorrect, Not saying the Xmas period is going to be mild or cold but if there was default switch the UK would 8 times out of 10 fall to the mild side of things

One run and the reapers are out for somethings that's 14 days away? anyway onto the here and now 00z still shows the dry mild period 14th-21st then a cool down with a 50/50 split at the moment but this is in the far reaches of FI. So a break from the rain allowing the UK To dry out, back to the 21st onward there is a pattern change which way it goes is yet to be decided and the seasoned model watchers should know this.

I'll just leave this here.

00z the consistency is remarkable its all about trends and you couldn't get a finer trend to what this as been pumping out the last few days, the 23rd is a long way off in forecasting terms FI If you like. but hopefully we will see this trend next week then we could see some pre Xmas excitement But!! remember its like a roller coaster loads of twists and turns and most importantly keep your arms and legs in the car because to much excitement could lead to disappointment. If i remember it was the year before last when the models were showing a Xmas nirvana only to have it stolen away from us in 24hrs.

5/2 with BoyleSports Newcastle5/2 with BoyleSports Belfast3/1 with Ladbrokes Leeds/Bradford7/2 with BetVictor current odds pretty rubbish lol. Ties in with this is i suppose.

As I've been banging on about the last few days the trend still counties with something dryer from the 14th/15th then a dip in temps from the 21st but this is a long way out, but its nice to see a trend for dry conditions still there.

Better than constant days of rain and flooding i suppose.

The sea temp can vary Current temp is 7.2c recorded off Blackpool this morning no definitive set temp

Four days at best before a wind direction change bringing more in showers with a temp of around 7c-8c feel winds from NNW quadrant

Wind bearing from the NNW Or NW From around the 14th wont bring the feeling of mild conditions 7-8c max

The high could push NW It looks good the moment could be sleep walking into something good for the time of the year.

00z still shows the continue trend to something dryer and more seasonal from the 14th at least it looks to be settled going into the xmas week.

18z still shows a trend for a high pressure building in from the 14th onward it looks to be a similar cold spell as the last one with temps dipping off towards the end, but don't forget even if temps are higher than average that don't mean its going to be boiling the clear nights will produce frost. The main thing it will be dry for some days and not like this grey rain dross we are having now, 00z looks promising so far with a dominant high starting to build around the uk.

The trend seems to be there at the minute, each run shows some sort of change from the 14th onward when i look at the GEFS I Like to watch the moisture levels flatten sometimes this can be a good indicator of something better than gallons of rain.

Yes its interesting something is stirring i think we will see some good charts in a few days time.

06z not without interest from the 14th/15th onward, the ppn spikes seem to be demising on each run a suggestion of something dryer and slightly above average temps. At least it will be dryer if this comes to fruition

The trend continues from the 14th onward for something dryer, close to average temps one to watch.

00z there looks to be some sort of trend setting up from around the 14th i think we'll see a dryer spell with temps just below or average for the time of the year.

00z shows the wet period from the 07th to the 11th, then something of a change seems to be there trending from the 13th/14th December that looks to be dryer than what we will see the next week.

06z looks to be picking up on something more cooler and less settled from around the 14th trend as been there a few times now one to watch.

18z what a mess after the 06th, its all over the place like swimming through glue there's a pattern change mixed into that from my perspective, and sticking to just trying reading this model over the years, it looks like periods of milder conditions with mix of colder two three day shots.

There were a few getting carried away with the suggestion of 2010 why i don't know? it was showing a trend for a return of something of the normal for several days, but folk chose to catch the band wagon and jump on swept away with tales of winter nirvana and promise full of Turkish delights Not this time I'm afraid. all aboard the Westley choo choo.

The purples are snow, you could have snow on the leading edge but look at the blues, greens, yellows, they are rain

18z still shows the trend for a cold snap, then the trended return to something just above average South Westley's, no surprise there! but what is surprising is this was showing for days previously but when certain posters where pointing this out they were shot down in flames, personally for me model watching is looking for trends not seeing a cold snap develop and thinking it will extended. if it was going to, the trend would have been there just like 2010.