Vikos

That's one stronghold of GFS, if there is smthg on the horzion regarding a warming, GFS is quite accurate in predicting it very soon

Good morning EC seems to be a bit more consistent 00z from yesterday -->

Goodnight

Yeah Tunesia/Algeria in for some snow

Or just good ol‘ GoodForSh..t atlantic lows overpushing bias? ?

I would like to show you the synoptic outlook from DWD (German Weather Service), which is today looking on the PV (=SPW / Stratospheric Polar Wirbel[Vortex]) WLA = WAA KLA = CAA I used Google to translate it, hope it didn't crippeld it to much Enjoy reading Source: Wetter und Klima - Deutscher Wetterdienst - Wetter und Klima Deutschland - Synoptische Übersicht Mittelfrist WWW.DWD.DE Die Synoptische Übersichte Mittelfrist führt die Kurzfrist-Einschätzungen weiter (3. bis 7. Folgetag) unter besonderem Hinblick auf die verschiedenen Modellrechnungen. With regard to the polar vortex in the stratosphere (SPW) there is a lot currently required and everything cannot be done in this medium-term due to time and overview be treated. After a short period of weakness, the SPW will recover over the medium term and this is shown in the IFS-EPS (zonally averaged zonal winds in 10 hPa in 60 degrees North) due to a marked increase well above the mean value of Model climatology - also supported by GEFS with similar values. All that also coincides with a now occurring phase of reduced zonally averaged Heat flows together. In 10 hPa, i.e. in the upper range of the SPW, weakens temporarily off a powerful anticyclone over the Pacific sector, while the polar vortex is in the elevation under reinforcement of Greenland relocated to Spitzbergen / Nordkapp. This print configuration is therefore of Interest, because it is the so-called "wave number 1", which is in the Reality of an anticyclone over the Aleutian area and a center deep Geopotential, i.e. the polar vortex as a counterpart (other Wavenumbers are currently not dealt with here). This increases Anticyclones, it ensures peripheral degradation of the polar vortex like that important vorticity, so that the SPW weakens and shrinks. Over this medium term, however, the opposite happens. The anticyclone weakens a bit and the SPW comes back in thanks to the lack of heat flows Drive (but contracts significantly, which is also due to a second, weak Anticyclones off Africa). In summary, the SPW is shifted from the pole, robust, but increasingly deformed. Let's take a look at the period between Christmas and New Year (extended medium term), it is constantly indicated, that repeated striking heat flows and corresponding positive ones Temperature anomalies from the Siberian and Asian sectors in the area of the Move the stratosphere to the east and the anticyclones - now over the Aleutian Islands placed - amplify again (also visible through a second peak the anomaly values for the wave number 1). The SPW therefore begins to Turn of the year to weaken again. This can be seen in the form of the geopotential a slight increase. With zonal averaging of the wind this is indicated by a marked drop in values recognizable thanks to the displacement of the polar vortex from Pole and thus away from the 60th parallel. If you give the ensemble forecasts Believe, then the year 2021 could begin with an SPW that is related to the mean wind is below the mean value of the model climatology - and that clearly (but still far from a possible wind reversal). Has for us This development has no direct effects for the time being, but all the more so in Asian sector and thus indirectly also for us. The medium-term flows there over repeated arctic air masses (850 hPa temperature values partly clear below -35 degrees) to the south (10 day mean with a negative EFI of 2m Temperature from -0.6 to -0.8 or with snow masses for the Japanese mountains), east of the Ural Mountains, these push the ground pressure upwards. Driven The polar front jet in the North Pacific is released from this massive body of cold air partly reinforced over 200 kn. The jet then becomes repeatedly unstable and breaks off Alaska and Canada in constant wave patterns. Thus change in the North American / North Atlantic sector during the (extended) medium term the wave amplitude increasing from "short" to "long" and the wave displacement from "progressive" to "quasi-stationary". That will be us in Europe then in the employ extended medium term. But we come back to our medium term and there in the border area between SPW and the polar vortex in the troposphere (TPW). Also here is doing the medium term via geopotential reduction over the Scandinavian area noticeable as a result of the intensifying and towards Spitsbergen shifting vortex. Looking at the wind at the level of the tropopause is therefore a reduction in the persistently diffluent and comparatively low-gradient flow towards a temporarily zonally aligned high-altitude current over west and To recognize Central Europe. Especially during this medium term, the Relocation of a trough from Greenland to Scandinavia on what is in phase with a progressive wedge moving to south-western Europe happened, so that western and Central Europe temporarily found itself in a strong geopotential crowd. This is within the so-called "time series" of IFS-HRES nice to see where over Benelux / West Germany at the beginning of the next week the wind in 200 hPa up to Midweek blowing steadily from W / SW with 70-85 knots. Certainly off From a kinematic point of view, not amazing, but with regard to the model climate slightly abnormal (or statistically with around 1 sigma deviation) and above all overlapping with an influx of humid, labile subtropical air that forms the wedge accompanied (positive EFI of the moisture flow directed towards Central Europe). Everything basically beneficial ingredients for the development of powerful cyclones in the North East Atlantic. However, there are so far within the IFS-EPS Members only little evidence. One reason could be that the wedge in 150 hPa rapidly migrates eastwards or flattens out and then a trough in Western Europe reached who interacts with the trough via Scandinavia and to the end of the Medium term / start of the extended medium term after Christmas to one pronounced positively inclined trough configuration mutated from Scandinavia extends as far as Morocco (with a strong wedge upstream in Towards Iceland). As a result, the geopotential gradient spreads out Central Europe back up and any subsurface development quickly becomes the Deprived of beneficial altitude vergence. With a then beginning increasingly Axis-vertical floor depth / height trough configuration begins eastward moving trough over Central Europe gradually to nestle what later in a quasi-stationary wave pattern opens. However, in terms of ground pressure, it is quite a complex one Interplay of a central low off Norway and one in Newfoundland Storm depression migrating eastwards (responsible for a snowstorm in the northeast the USA). KLA of one and WLA of the other ensure a pronounced Air mass limit, which extends over the medium term from the Azores to after Western Europe is supposed to build up and is prone to ripple what repeats is / was indicated. It is precisely this that has the greatest potential for stronger ones Peripheral deep developments over England / Northern France / Benelux. Shouldn't be so his would in turn be the potential for one across Western and Central Europe dragging air mass limit increased. Let's take a quick look at the AO, thanks to vehement blockages in the area of Greenland and Urals or potential bridges that are partially spanned near the pole remains negative. The NAO remains neutral / slightly negative. The tropics are still comparatively calm. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is in the transition area from phase 4 to 5 (i.e. from the western maritime Shifting continent to the western Pacific) continues to weaken, which i.a. also due to the destructive interaction with which La Nina should be (supported in the guidance through a homogeneous acceptance of the members in the unit circle of so-called "Realtime Multivariate MJO Index", short: RMM). GEFS and IFS-EPS match well. This standing wave promotes between the Philippines, Australia and the Southwest and West Pacific, the development of tropical cyclones, apart from that, however, no direct impact on the extra-tropics is expected. As a result, the extended medium-term between Christmas and New Year, In the European sector, as already mentioned, we are getting back to a rather stationary wave pattern with a long wave trough whose axis is above us or should come to rest just east of us. This crystallizes in Trend out that the pivoting is delayed more and more, from today's Even after the holidays. That would take Germany longer in the warm sector leave. But depending on the ground pressure geometry, a further wave formation, a scenario with wet snowfalls down to deep elevations set - the potential for regionally a white surprise to the Holidays remain in any case, but with the emphasis on: muddy, locally and with little confidence. As a zustom of continental cold air from Siberia is effectively suppressed we must continue with modified polar sea air and with a then indicated cooling over Greenland / Eastern Canada should not be long before the Atlantic gets going again.

Lets hope, that Canada doesn't gain anymore cold air Yesterdays 12z--->

Compairing 12z today to 12z from yesterday and 00z yesterday Yet again, GFS is rather useless after 192h

You are right, 06z and 18z of GFS is mostly missing some airplane data and stuff, so actually there is no sense in comparing 06z to 12z and 18z to 00z. But I doubt somebody will ever learn this. Synoptics always compare within 24h, means 00z to 00z, 12z to 12z and so on... A Comparison of Forecast Skills among GFS Four Cycles in the Past Ten Years -- WWW.YUMPU.COM A Comparison of Forecast Skills among GFS Four Cycles in the Past Ten Years https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwitu6-sptLtAhUKvRQKHdvLCiUQFjAJegQICxAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.natgasweather.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2FLive_HDD_CDD_Data_FAQ.pdf&usg=AOvVaw0oSoc0nO9FNKsBnvulOtQL

So I am not the only one?!

Well, the final outcome can'tbe predicted by any model for sure, but the overall patterns mostly match (f.e. polar high, ridge). That's what's the important thing for me. Best regards

I saved those charts on my mobile. I am stunned... and somehow frightened.

Hmm, I wasn't so wrong on 6z today in the morning

Me watching the ECM Output tonite

Just wait for the ENS, it will be an outlier GFS is known for swinging and its atlantic bias... so no worry, stay optimistic.

Just put the GFS12z in here and forget about it. One run doesn't have to ruin your day

No more cyclogenesis at the eastcoast of USA it seems. Atlantic goes lockdown, too...

This second atlantic high, oh boy oh boy... even stronger than in 06z This is it!

I wouldn't be too persemistic, the major models are somehow disassembling the PV into pieces, outcome unknown (by now), but I except a longer period of cold over ME, if the PV splits, and on top, the coldest days are yet to come in Jan and Feb. This xmas cold could be just a cold fart, before (...) goes down, metaphorically

THIS!!! IS!! ONE!!! CRIPPLED!!! PV!!!

I smell that atlantic bias in the modells. I hope, that once the ridge stands, it will be strong enough to wuthstand the atlantic, since there is not really a lot of cold over canada to engage an active AO/NAO atm.

One scenario that could possibly happen in my oppinion...

Daaaaang son, that's close to a split... However, that PV doesn't look healthy at all, we will see a lot of swinging in the models, soon....

I like this a lot.... frontal zone pushed to the south, almost reaching Africa

This massive cold block with -40°C meanwhile springtime over canada