Vikos

That’s 39 gfs runs from now on. Good luck and keep the faith! ?

The air flow over the warm North Sea and the lack of really cold air masses in the north is the problem we have in Central Europe for a real significant onset of winter within the next 10-12 days. Unfortunately, this is a fact. Sleet showers at 2 degrees floor temperature is not my favorite, tbh...

When he postet it, GFS 12z only was at 192h or so... your chart is FI, mine is midterm with following dew points... so show me how it will snow anywhere below 200m

No. In no way. Ever.

To be honest...

Diagnosis: delayeritis je-ef-esus retardus

Oh boy oh boy no big changes in a 192h chart ... is GFS ok? 06z--->

ICON was never designed for long-term forecasts, its power is in the 7 day range. It produces 900gb data for a 7-day-output

Get your facts straight here https://ims.gov.il/en/node/1555 Also https://www.dwd.de/EN/research/weatherforecasting/num_modelling/05_verification/verification_node.html

Well, ICON is DWD made. Fun-Fact: the daily synoptic Outlook from DWD is always based on the EC-Output (EPS) with a bit MosMix ( https://www.dwd.de/DE/leistungen/met_verfahren_mosmix/met_verfahren_mosmix.html ), and ICON is used mostly for correctional purposes.

Guten Tag, you're welcome

Ozone concetration might be far to low for a strong SSW (by now), forecast only goes to +120h Forecast---> Winds still in the gray range, nothing to see (yet) COPERNICUS EC: UKMO:

Just for discussion, the +72h , the +240h and +360h EC Clusters edit +192h Cluster analysies from German DWD Translated to Englisch by google: EPS: The smoke plumes for representative places in Germany indicate the Temperature profile 850 hPa shows a comparatively homogeneous profile. On the strong WLA (Warm Air Addv.) at the beginning of the week occurs in all from the middle of the week Parts of the country a stronger cooling. This is associated with a reduction of the geopotential (trough passage). The one with the WLA is also clearly recognizable associated rainfall activity in the center of the country while it is in the south remains mostly dry during this period. CLUSTER: +120 ... 168h: There are two clusters that are almost equally distributed. C1 tends more towards the positive NAO pattern, C2 towards the Atlantic ridge. One can but read from it that a trough situation on Christmas days is right is likely (according to ECMWF). +192 ... 240h: Now 5 clusters have to be handled, the completely different ones Have flow patterns. The main and control runs are in C4, the Trough situation extended over Central Europe (but only 8 members). C1 with 13 Membern lets the trough (less pronounced) withdraw more quickly to the east and follow a flat back. Reliable statements can therefore be made for the days not to be made after Christmas.

I think an admin should do some cleanup in here...

I just would say that there multiple option and the path to cold isn’t clear yet... poking in the mist

EC clusters +240h

AO Blog Update | AER | Weather Risk Assessment WWW.AER.COM December 14, 2020 - Dr. Judah Cohen from Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) embarked on an experimental process of regular research, review, and analysis of...

For the records Let see what the updated 10hpa windcharts will say.

If smbdy noticed... +4 There is something going on ?️

Hmm... I know those snow cover outpouts from a global model aren't worth a lot but, I don't see a lot of snow coming in midterm...

If the myth is true, we get the weather America had 10 days before, so... Blizzard-on!

Good morning, just opened my eyes, just to see this stunning GFS run wich isn’t FI but but has reached midterm. Seems like we get our own chunk of the PV over Europe. In 06z it will swing back, I think.

Oh, this butterfly effect... gfs swings

In our german forum we say, if there is a single member showing a mild solution (in winter) it will win the race. Because "Mild Always Wins" (MAW). Singularity rule #1.

Videos are more fun than pictures, and if they use horror headlines, even better