[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

what kind of temps we facing?nw..i love the part 144 on to 168 when the energy moves eastward and we get some kind of easterly 

I would say -5 or -7 for Southern England, on the evening of the 9th. -5 for most of the UK, -10 for some areas of northern UK. -12 for Scottland or colder. -5 to -8 western UK!

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

People are talking about day temps at 0 in 9 days on the ECMWF.. the Met Office has this before the weekend for most of the UK.. -15 for Northern UK!

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

May I ask what is with the negativity by some? The MetOffice has been showing-5 for days for most of the country next Friday evening. 

 

I am going to make a bold statement and say this will be a historic cold spell. I think the blocking on some models showing a progression to more warmer weather to be overdone. This blocking is significant, and I would not be surprised if London sees -7 at some point in the next 10 days. If we don't get snow this time around, country wide, we will be INCREDIBLY unlucky.

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Just now, Daniel said:

I do agree but with Sundays event delivering 10 to 15cm in parts of EA then comes alone the convective constant snow showers which should add a lot more to it we could be talking 30cm in places. A lot of things have to come into place first so yes I think it's best to keep exspectations low but have an open mind. I certainly would be very happy man if I lived on coastal EA rn

I agree entirely. Even the Sussex coast could see a similar amount..

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Bevbrighton said:

Lived in Woodingdean for 15 years sweet spot for snow in Brighton, now in Peacehaven and will need everything crossed to see anything lay 

I think you gave a pretty good chance of snow laying (80%), and possibly quite accumulative

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

UKMO has big time upgraded the snow threat on Sunday, looks similar to the GFS but no warm sector to speak of over the SE:

5-10cms across the SE, 15cms N.Kent and Suffolk.

@nick sussex that run is about the worst possible way to evolve out of the pattern. If its going to go like that, may as well have that first low further north so we can get snow out of that!

Confused when I saw their week forecast and it said ram for south

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

I find it pretty unbelievable that we are in a moment where this time next week we could either have blizzards or mild heavy rain. Uncertain times indeed! 
 

Please ECM weather gods..

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

Imagine if the cold tonight moves out too slow and the rain is snow instead! Wishful thinking I know

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

Just now, NewEra21 said:

GEM has been one of the most consistent models of the past few days, not had the ups and downs of most models.

I know! The temperatures forecast from it have been spot on in my area here too. I think it has built its reputation 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

I’m going to stick my neck out and say Thursday the snow will go much further south than expected. It seems to be trending more south and en evolution of the GEM idea is likely for me. I know some don’t rate GEM but I think it’s done well lately

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

18 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Lol, we're in a colder than average month mate. We're not used to it but given these temps running 2-3C below normal these surprises could happen. 

I know mate! I just mean I’ve been weather watching for a few years now and have not seen something like this. So many changes at so many times!

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

what ON EARTH IS GOING ON? Blizzard in south U.K. on SATURDAY? The weather is drunk.

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

Just now, Jason M said:

Didn't say no significant snow I said no to 'historical' snow. That's possible but for most, especially in the highly populated areas it won't be anything that people talk about for years to come!

Happy to be judged by my comments as I have no ego with this stuff. If I'm wrong so be it and in truth I'll be as happy as everyone else. Besides, I thought I called the last spell well so if I get one right and one wrong I've done okay 

I was only joking great analysis as always!

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

1 minute ago, Jason M said:

Cold but not massively so. Temps at 850 level around -6c which is similar to what has just gone before. Whilst a long maritime track I suspect slightly better dew points as the origin of the airmass is from a long way north. In the north your looking at anything falling being snow to low levels, in the south 'wintry showers'. The kicker though is that in many places it would probably be dry.

In the days following the cold intensifies slightly away from the far south but I would not expect any historical snow events. In essence its a bog standard winter cold snap despite it looking dramatic but maybe a little more punchy than the last one. Beyond 240 hours it could go colder still but the jury is out on that and my own sense is that we are gradually trending away from any full on 'beast'.

All the above based on gut feel from the 500 & 850 Metiociel charts so others might have more detail.

I will hold you to the no significant snow/cold idea if it happens

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

I would like to ask those hypothetically, what would a T196+ ECM12z scenario entail? You think dare I say it, historical snow somewhere in U.K.? 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

Please cold weather gods. Provide us with a moment of history. The change of atmosphere here today are I think historic in itself

[Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?]

-4°c or -10°c? There is a huge variation and just D4. This has major repercussions to whether we see widespread snow or rain! 

 

[Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?]

What I find quite extraordinary is we are a day closer and we STILL don’t know what is going on in just a few days time! Phenomenal times. 

[Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Doesn’t look as much of an outlier for London? Perhaps it’s just the south coast?

Possibly. Personally I believe if it can’t get the first 72 hours right then from then onward might aswell be disregarded. It’s possible all models are wrong! Back to the drawing board tomorrow!

[Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

No doom and gloom from me,we have to get this week nailed on yet never mind day ten!

the NWP'S(numerical weather patterns) are still toying with the nuances from the SSW and this won't be settled for a good few days yet, initial SSW date was the 5th Jan and we are only 5 days in and it will take another good 5 days> before the lag effect down wells into the trop,landing zone at the earliest,..20th>

 

Good to hear some still have optimism!

[Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?]

For the doom and Gloomers, it’s clear GFS OP is an obvious outlier and its fiat to say the models don’t have a clue what’s going on even at t48, t72. Check these 2m temp forecasts from the ensembles tonight. Some say 9c, some say freezing at 0c. The GFS are clueless   right now! 

 

 

[Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?]

I see a lot tonight suffering from post Chart watching depression. Remember this is ONE run. Albeit, it didn’t go the way some may have hoped but it’s ONLY ONE run. Wait until tomorrow before having any more predictions!

I think all scenarios are still on the table and even t120 no one knows, so for those guessing what’s happening in 6 weeks time saying cold is gone and our hopes our lost, baffle me to be honest. 

Cold is in our sights and I believe one way or another, it is coming in it’s masses! Best opportunity here in a long time. Heads up NW community! Onto the pub run now...

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

Evening all!

When I mentioned earlier today the potential for a significant cold spell in just a weeks time, some laughed at me. I am thankful for those who defended the input of mine and others, even when it didn’t appear to be the common opinion. The Net weather  community, is in its core, a great and supportive community.

Great to see tonight the potential cold remerging even more. It must be added we still some hurdles to cross, alas some may be tricky, but it is certainly looking even brighter that we may experience finally widespread cold AND (hopefully) snow event in the U.K. for the first time since 2013.

Have a great evening all, and I’ll be back tomorrow to analyse the charts once again with you all. May the Cold weather gods win!

 

 

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

I have a feeling, and this may be bold, that all models are currently wrong. Feel free to relate back to this in the days ahead! 
 

The SSW events have created absolute havoc for these models, even the UKMO is struggling to get temps right t+6 hours today. 
 

Be optimistic guys, I believe the chance hasn’t faded yet. Onto the pub run! 

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

5 minutes ago, o0herbie said:

This is the kind of post that drives an amateur like me insane. A lot of explanation as to how an area of nothing on the southern tip of Greenland can turn in to an easterly is needed!

May I add an Easterly / NE’ly is more than plausible from this position. Not too sure what has driven you insane. Maybe the grinch has arrived late for Christmas!