[Cold hunt - models and chat]

5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Weatherman on BBC weather just said "No Easterly anytime soon "

Indicated a Southerly jet stream with repeated sliders.

Below average temperatures but not majorly below.

They also said that today will be a 'dry day for most' and ended up with a lot of the country seeing some snow showers...

I wouldn't trust BBC walking my dog up the hill never mind the weather.

Since they switched from METO to Meteogroup they have been nothing but a pile of tosh

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Hello everyone, I hope you are having a great evening so far.

It looks to me that hope has now arrived again and in this thread, we need that a lot these days. However, like I mentioned yesterday, nothing is impossible when it comes to the weather and today represented that. Many areas saw snow and some with accumulations. I remember many saying 'no snow will fall unless on hills', yet many saw snow today!

From present onwards and into the end of the week, it looks to me the jet still wants to reload and each time it moves ever so slightly west and we get closer and closer to what we want.

it is my opinion that we will finally strike gold some time in the next 2 weeks. I know many have said this before 'in 10 days it will be cold' or 'in 10 days it could snow' but this is a very different scenario. We are now in the cold and there is no sign of it warming up, minus the few times the jet reloads and we get into a temporary westerly.

It is during these times, the transitions from cold to warm or vice - versa that we could see a significant snow event. We have the ingredients and we a are almost there. Patience has been needed this winter but it may well pay its dividends soon..

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

No one is saying winters over it’s just everyone was exspecting a wintry spell in January and it didn’t happen . It’s been jan since nov/dec everything pointing to jan . It will be early jan , nope it will be mid jan ,nope last third of jan , nope end of jan and guess what now into February. So you understand why people are frustrated. Now that we are looking into feb the clock starts to tick because the further you go into feb the better the conditions have to be ie higher 850s etc etc to get proper wintry conditions . I Know winters not over and most will probably see snow before February is finished but would of been better in mid winter and all the talk / forecasts about a good winter has just led to people being very frustrated.

True to a degree (mind the pun). I am frustrated too. Snow is my favourite type of weather and I am disappointed not to see any wintry weather so far, especially given that many was expecting it over and over again for it to fail to deliver. 

You are a great weather commentator and I do appreciate yours and everyone's input on this fantastic weather forum.

Re iterating my point, I have seen a few posts suggesting we will no longer get winter weather this winter or that 'if this doesn't happen, then its over' and this was my point. People should remain optimistic until the very end

Lastly, we are not looking into early February necessarily for snow. As you may know the weather models struggle to predict 5 days ahead so we could still see snow next weekend for all we know!

Keep hoping i'd say 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

For all those pessimists saying 'winter is over', please go and get some sleep, it isnt! This is the 21st January. Last year we saw significant snow at the end of march..

I do fully understand for many snow lovers, including myself, this winter has been invariably disappointing. The promise of snow for it not to arrive or for all models to switch late on is hard to see. 

This week is still looking exceptionally cold. Tuesday may well bring surprises for many. I have seen lots of comments saying that snow will not fall to lower levels. I however, think that many places will see a period of snow. It may not lay but you may well see some snow at some point,  from the N W to all the way to South coast here in Brighton.

Wednesday many places will struggle to get above 1ºC or 2ºC. This thread is 'hunt for cold'. That is cold to me!

As we head into the later stages of the week, Friday up until Saturday evening there looks to be a warm up. What you may notice however is the constant reload of the jet stream each time it gets colder and colder. I personally think that after this warm up, we have our first chance of a significant snow event. I am to be proven wrong of course but this is my view on it.

With RE to ECM and GFS 'agreeing' to 240h'' it doesn't make too much difference to me. They have proved unreliable at this range in the past and will prove unreliable in the future.

I am fascinated on what is to happen next this winter. 

Please everyone, it may be difficult, but remain optimistic until the end. If you don't have hope, you have nothing.

Have a good evening!

Thank you for reading 

Onwards and upwards!

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Looking through the eps clusters - content to pull the curtains on any easterly later this week.  We move onto the rinse an repeat of the upcoming week with a cold zonal sinking into a euro trough through week 2. 

And the stuff about the USA storm not being initiated correctly ...... really ??.

The USA storm information taken directly from various USA forecasters 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

There is some SERIOUS- carbon copy of what others have posted in here.

Not 2 mention..

Some very over the top...handbag like gfuqhgfpjhing!!..

Its non worthy..

We are in the game-and its nailed down 2 some minor adjustments!!!

Daft..

And we are on the cliff edge of falling into some news making weather.

Some want the anchor note..on the bbc 10-0 clock news...

Keep watching...

 

 

Is this directed at me?..

I was just putting my input like anyone else on this forum..

The 10 o clock news bit that is..

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

I must add even if the GFS has all members facing no cold I would still take a pinch of salt past 120h. 

Many of us have seen all completely flip before and sometimes it takes a small change for this to happen.

Goodnight guys. Onwards and upwards tomorrow!

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

I think it looks different from the current runs because it hasn't been updated yet?

Apologies. I mean from what was previously forecasted not what is currently forecasted. 

Please refer to this tweet as an example:

Tomorrow by even 6z we will have a much better idea on what will happen next week. The models may not have taken in the new information yet as mentioned before.

 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

2 minutes ago, TEITS said:

I just checked this on radar/Sat and the low appears to be centred exactly where the 18Z GFS has this i.e Tennessee

The radar is very difficult to compare to the modelled output as there can be differences. 

This is new information for the GFS18z regarding the position of the low. Not only this, it is the pub run and as we know it can be unreliable.

I think tomorrow we will have greater information on which direction our weather will be heading and t96 will be ever more clearer and finally concluded.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Can you advise where and how. ??

Yes, of course. 

Many USA forecasters have spoken and tweeted at how the low is more N/NW than forecast and this has lead to warmer temperatures for them. 

This effects us as you may know because the direction of that low coming out of the USA may have a direct impact on the position of the jet, which then has a huge effect on our weather in the future

 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Many do think the the low coming out the USA is further N/NW than forecast. This could have huge ramifications for the UK.

The METO fax charts tonight represent that. They have, for the first time in sometime, amended their OWN model charts due to this uncertainty on our weather. 

There is no certainty we still won't get the E/NE next week. We haven't even sorted the next 96h never mind whats after. 

There is still that chance everything will change tomorrow and this it not out of the realms of possibility. 

Tomorrow we go again!

[Focussed Model Discussion]

1 minute ago, matty40s said:

The USA weather bloggers and forecasters seem very miffed that the storm seems to be moving more to the NW than forecast. .....this is playing directly into our hands, the ECM wasn't expecting this.

Do you have any links you can provide?

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

The ECM progression I don't see happening.

What is going on after 120h?!

We can throw it in the bin after that.

The. Models. Are. Confused.

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

I did say it wasn't over! 

ECM 192h brings the cold in again..

It looks to me, dare I say it, the jet could dg south even more and that would make it very cold..

Fantasy land may be, but the ingredients are there!

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Ermmm ...

Sounds very familiar...

That post

The threads anticipation summed up 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

We are well into fantasy land now when 96h hasn't been sorted yet.

However, 168h ECM looking tasty to me...

Atlantic blocking could still very much happen at 192h with this progression.

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

I would take anything past 96h on ECM or any model with a huge pinch of salt. 

Everything is still to play for and we could even still get the significant outcome next week we all want.

Cross model agreement is needed and we don't have that yet.

UKMO still going for cold next week and well done to them for sticking to it when every model at one stage was against it!

Game on. Don't panic yet!

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

ECM 120 looks good to me..

Next week will be cold, most probably from N or NW.

Snow events still very much possible!

Game on!

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Okay I know it is fantasy land, but look at this! 

234 h on GFS (P) and almost the entire UK has snow. 

There is a tendency here for the jet to create an Atlantic blocking around Tuesday, causing that low from the NW to move SE across the country. This could lead to locally heavy snow in places. I know it has been mentioned that this will not lay but we can't be sure of this. Evaporative cooling in areas of high precipitation could cause the temperature to drop locally for a time, leading to minor accumulations.

 

 

Once the Atlantic blocking takes hold around Tuesday and the low passes south east across the country, there is the chance that the jet re loads whilst also moving north on our western side creating an even more significant block.

 

After this, who knows where but I have seen a few runs with the jet pulling south altogether leaving extraordinary opportunities of snow come the end of the week. This is far off yes, but the tendency is certainly there for this progression.

 

 

Here at 216 h okay this is the GFS (P) and we are in some fantasy land now, I would not rule this progression out of the question. 

This creates significant snow accumulation for many.

23h as shown above, that is incredible snow event. 

I will also add that this scenario has been mentioned in the METO monthly outlook. 

They say for next weekend, sorry for mods off topic but this is relating to models, I know there is a separate thread for this but it is relevant for my explanation. 

"There is a small chance of a weather system approaching the northwest over the weekend, which could bring significant amounts of snow on meeting the cold air. However, this is still very uncertain and it is best to stay up to date with the latest forecast.".

All in all an interesting time ahead. Wake up tomorrow and ECM is on board, I'd say we can be counting down the days for a memorable spell of weather. Tomorrow is very significant, lets see what it brings!

Thank you for reading

 

 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Hello everyone and welcome back.

18z GFS although may not be deterministic for the ins and outs on specific details for the upcoming cold spell, it will still be a good indication towards how our weather will progress for the near future.

Exciting but nervous times ahead.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

ECM proving as unreliable as my ex tonight..

18z GFS it is to calm the nerves...

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

216 on ECM comes to something almost magical..but not quite. If the Jet can dig slightly more, this could still. be a cracking end to the run. 

 

It goes to show that if this is 'warmer' than most ensembles, we are in for some great cold this winter.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Now we have the UKMO and GFS on board but the ECM, the initial starter of this cold, has now backed out. Lets see the ensembles before we get too worried.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

I predict at 216 the ECM will form another Atlantic blocking. Looks to be building from the west again..

Not another 10 days to wait for snow..

 

 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

168 on ECM and UK is hanging on by a thread. Look to the SW for a movement of the jet..it starts to build and could still end with Atlantic blocking..