[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

ECM and 144 looks too close to comfort for me..

There really does feel a shift on the colder air to be slightly further east than forecast. This is also evident on GFS 12z earlier today.

All runs lead to turning cold..but HOW cold and HOW snowy for next week?!

We still don't know.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

120 on ECM and that looks a bit dodgey to me..Lets hope to the NW it 'curves' round the UK on 144 bringing in that cold wind from the east...

Slightly worried...

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Today, some of these charts, they must be some of the greatest weather set ups for the UK I have ever seen. If anything even close to hour 238 GFS (P) was to come off for us, albeit unlikely of course, it would cause not only the country to come to a complete standstill but also this forum would absolutely explode with joy.

I cannot explain how amazing some of them charts are. Feet and feet of snow if they happen.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

GFS is back onboard with a decent amount of backedge snow, it doesn't have ANY settling snow, I suspect at least on higher ground you would get a decent settling, but it would be nice to get some good backedge snow, been a while since I've seen a good amount of it.

Depending on the severity of the snow, possibly for a time due to evaporative cooling snow could lay for a time. This more so for the N/NW parts of the country. Some minimums are 0 or -1. Seeing snow at this stage is a jackpot anyway!

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Phenomenal by UKMO at 144. Confusing when their app has it mainly dry for a lot of the country next week..

Is this automated? The charts seen just now show a very different picture!

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Is that a snow event chance Wednesday for the UKMO 144..

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Colder air sitting on the S and SE corner than previously forecasted.. 

This could be an upgrade for S/SE for snow Tuesday as I mentioned earlier!..

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

GFS not looking bad at 72 hours..it looks a bit warmer than yesterdays 12z with the cold air slightly further east. I wonder if this could have ramifications later on in the run..

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

I do think the next 5 to 6 days could shape the rest of our winter..

The 120-144 h timeframe is one to watch for sure.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

The Icon is either not grasping the evolution of that low or has picked something up not noticed before. All eyes on GFS 12z..

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

5 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Not convinced - experience tells me that these marginal events tend to fall the wrong side as they come into the 36-72 range. Rather like tonight's prospects were looking a couple of days ago. Not a problem, as this was only the breadstick course.

A good point.. 

The timing of the low on Tuesday is mixed on many different models. A 6 hour difference could mean the low from the NW hits colder air than what is forecast. Maybe the snow laying is far fetched, especially for the S and SE coast but certainly not impossible at this range. 

None the less, you need the ingredients before you make the cake and as you rightly stated, this is only the start of what could be a memorable spell of wintry weather.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Sometimes surprises for snow in short term can happen and I do think there is the chance of snow Tuesday right down to the South Coast.

A very nervous few hours await..

 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

3 minutes ago, Norrance said:

Please note that there are threads for the Met office longer range forecasts. Please use these threads for discussions relating to these forecasts as they will be removed from the Model thread which is busy enough with the current output.

Apologies. As a new poster here I did not know this. Thank you for clarifying.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T 216

The amplification starts

I have said this a few times today that the trend for the low to push from NW to SE is beginning to ramp up.. a phenomenal snow event if it does.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

248 active members right now..lets see what the ECM conjures up..

And at t192 I'm not really sure what to make of it. Very cold uppers E and SE. If only the jet can move west..

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

t168 looking very promising..look to the NW..there may be an incoming snow event.. 

If that low sinks SE as I mentioned earlier, we could be celebrating something special indeed..

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Important moment coming up on the ECM - can that low from the NW move SE around T192!

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

A significant difference even at the early stages between ECM and GFS. Uppers are starkly variable between both models already at t92. ECM and UKMO will win this one out IMO with the slider idea, GFS appears drunk, much like the USA government situation..

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

I decided to sign up so I can also get involved in this weather discussion as I have been following the weather for some time and its modelled forecasts.

May I just add the GFS (P) has been forecasting some kind of snow event early next week (around Tuesday) for some time now. Even on the ECM it appears that the low pushes from the N/NW into the UK between hour 192 and 216. GFS (P) models this slightly earlier, but a similar idea and I think something to keep an eye on!