[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

2 minutes ago, o0herbie said:

This is the kind of post that drives an amateur like me insane. A lot of explanation as to how an area of nothing on the southern tip of Greenland can turn in to an easterly is needed!

Maybe you misunderstood what I was insulating, sorry. I meant the jet to push in that direction, to create a flow of air from the east.

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

Just now, Frostbite1980 said:

No chance of the high moving in that direction while there is a low over Iceland but could migrate to scanning if we ask nicely

Please mr weather gods!

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

There’s the potential for an easterly developing at just day 7. Come on ECM!

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

The difference on ECM at t72 from yesterday is stark. This is good so far. Notice the U.K. eastern side in slightly colder uppers! 
 

 

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

2 hours ago, Ice Day said:

Here you go

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Diagrammes des ensembles GEFS de la NOAA (graphes ENS GFS). 21 scénarios de GEFS.

Just click on your location and you're good to go!

Thank you! However, how do I access it in the format that you posted? 
 

 

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

That's a shame seeing the op as a clear outliner.  Was expecting more support..

Don’t worry. I’m pretty sure all of GFS is wrong and it will get a lot colder than it’s currently showing 

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

Hello all, evening! 
it’s my opinion that the GFS has now developed some kind of ‘westerly bias.’ It seems confused with the possibility of extreme cold coming in from the east. I am sure in the coming days, this will correct, but it’s still wrong even 6 hours our. 
 

for example tonight it predicts as cold as -1 here in Brighton for midnight. It’s already -1 at 5pm and will probably go as low as -3 or -4. 
 

Exciting times ahead. Take any models with a punch of salt right now. Extreme cold may still happen next week.

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

Just now, Ice Day said:

I'm sitting here on my laptop with tabs open on the GFS, GFSP, GFS Control and UKMO.  Quick question, am I normal?

Anyway, onto the models,  these were the GEFS from the 6z so we can look at trends from the 12z a bit later.

 

Thank you for adding this. May you provide a link for this so I can access for the future? Thank you! 

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

I think some may be exceptionally surprised with the days ahead. There have been moments, albeit rare, where the GFS is entirely wrong even just 48h+ out. So expect surprises. 

My bold prediction is that within 7 days, we are going to see a cold N’Ely. This period of time just feels different, and I really just don’t think the U.K. will go considerably mild again for quite some time. A mild rest on Monday - Thurs and then back to cold and snow potential from then onwards is my view. Hang on in there. The ride has just begun.

 

 

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

Hey all, evening!

I would just like to add a bit of input to this unique meteorological time. 
 

For us cold-lovers, it’s evident to me the ‘critical point’ is around the 12-13th Jan. Up until then it looks like agreement is close, but then cross model agreement starts to drastically shiver. If the heights build to our advantage, and we are on the right side of the cold, then things could quite possibly become spectacular. One noticeable theme - notice that precip forecast increases significantly at the critical moment around the 12th? This means that if we do get into the cold, nationwide snow events may possible follow in multiple numbers yes, speculation right now, but the possibility exists. As all those have said, macro not micro details are most important at this moment, but tonight I certainly will be thinking on the up. The exponential potential is there.

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year]

Hello everyone, we have seen historically time and time again, in similar situations these systems shift 40 Miles south, and  I think tomorrow some could be in for a surprise. South of the M4, even onto the coast in Sussex, I would not be surprised if some see snow. 
 

With the blocking now fully in force, the ingredients are there for something spectacular over the next few weeks. We will see the jet ‘have another go’ as it shifts from temporary westerlies back to colder air. This is the best position we have been in for a long long time, and I dare I say it, a 2009 repeat is not unlikely, oh do I hope that happens again.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Temperatures are WELL BELOW what was forecast.. 1ºc low temperature tonight met office but already 0ºC..

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Just now, Nqp15hhu said:

Says its 4/5c on Xcweather.

Far South it is already close to freezing..

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

It is much colder than expected here on the South Coast. It is 0.5c already at coming up to 5pm. It was expected to be 4ºC..

Does this have an impact for tomorrow?...

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

I have to say I completely disagree with many who say that Tuesday evening will not bring significant snow. I am not too bothered if every model is against the met office if at any point that was the case I would always back METO. They have proved to be right in the past and will continue to be in the future. 

I said this about the last event and many were moaning about how nothing will fall 'unless over hills' and yet many places saw some snow.

People may well be surprised waking up Wednesday morning to in my opinion some significant snow. 

I could be proven wrong of course..but last time my estimate was correct despite it being an unpopular opinion!

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

GFS 18z brings the possibility of more snow for the S and SE for WED rush hour after the initial event Tuesday night into Wednesday. This could cause some disruption and something to look out for and keep a close eye on too!

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Very dependent on how heavy snow will be, as likely to start off rain/sleet which will make ground wet and light snow would struggle to settle when it likely does turn to snow as cold air undercuts occluded front, if snow is moderate to occasional heavy could see 1-5cm lower elevations inland, more over N and S Downs, High Weald, Chilterns, etc. Think low coastal areas more likely to see rain/sleet for longer or throughout though. All an educated guess though, now casting the key in such marginal situations!

very interesting times indeed. Brighton is a geographical area almost impossible to forecast. I remember many snow events we have had where it was forecast to be rain but it is far enough to east to sometimes remain very cold.

METO have heavy snow for the coast here so nowcasting seems the only way to find out! Could be 4 inches, could be less or could be nothing!

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

12z UKMO-G and updated faxes agree on a slower clearance of the France low and occluded front/trough over UK compared to other models, this would bring more prolonged snowfall , be interesting to see if the UKMO is more on the money

T+60

T+72

 

Very interesting that and certainly could create a lot of snow!

What is your take for totals at this stage for say London and M4 area and then say the far southern counties like Brighton, East Sussex?

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

ICON model may have been inaccurate in recent times but it has been the one to sniff trends on some occasions. Lets hope it increases the snow event for the UK!

Important and nervous times ahead..

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Just now, Badgers01 said:

Actually meteorology is a science and there is an awful lot that actually is impossible with the weather! 

Okay okay! It was a broad statement 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

42 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

ICON-EU is showing 1cm cumulative snowfall for Brighton by 6pm Wednesday maybe that is the starting bid ! 

Nothing is impossible when it comes to the weather!

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

@Mods 

Is it possible to add a 'Poll' option on this forum? It would be awesome to have a poll where we can as a community predict how much snow will fall?

Just thought that would be cool!

 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

9 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

6 inches of settled snow on the coast in Brighton is a big ask from this type of set up !

It may be a big ask but we got 13 inches last time in 2010!

The precipitation intensity may well be that much again. 

So many variables to depend on. If the snow arrives when the temperatures are colder, I wouldn't rule dismiss 6 inches for the whole of the south east and for somewhere 1ft!

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Just now, Htid said:

Me too. I'm in eastbourne. It was said on here earlier that we would struggle. Don't know if that's changed or not. 

METO have heavy snow for all areas including the far South coast

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

What do people think the snow total will be for East Sussex? METO have heavy snow for here in Brighton and on the PPN METO charts it looks like a sweet spot..

15cm here?..