Thunder and Lightning

Looks like GEM might need to calm down a bit as well - 100mph gusts inland? No thank you.

ICON needs a chill pill

That would be very interesting

Just looking at the GEFS spaghetti plot shows there are still tons of possible outcomes. While the trend is firming nothing is decided yet.

To be honest, still quite a few members of MOGREPS have that further South solution. Given the other models agreement I would probably lean towards the Northern one, but 4 days is still a lot for stuff to happen. Could be some sort of middle ground, maybe all models lean to southern solution or the other way... It will be a mystery for a couple more days I would think!

Looks like the trend is definitely firming up now with Wales and the Midlands likely being the areas worst affected by strongest winds. Definitely still time for big changes, but the consistency between most models makes me feel like they probably won't be too significant.

15z UKV brings very strong 100mph wind gusts to parts of Wales, transferring East into the Midlands like UKMO

UKMO does bring 115+mph gusts South of Ireland. Transfers into Wales/SW England bringing 90mph gusts. Then through the Midlands with 80-85mph gusts Yes models usually tend to 'water-down' wind speeds closer to the event, with downgrades etc. But the consistency from this model and many others since Saturday is very alarming. Needs very close watching for those in Western Coastal areas.

Is there anything that can particularly indicate conditions more conducive for sting jet development or no? Obviously would need to be rapidly deepening, but there would be any way of indicating an elevated risk apart from a high-res modelling a few hours before or just live observations.

Right thanks

What is this ARP model? Do you have a link - 100mph sounds quite crazy

GFS and ICON are the first 12z models of today: ICON continues on its much further South path compared to other models, bringing severe gales to the Channel Coast and SW England GFS is a tad further north but brings 80mph wind gusts into the Midlands, Wales and Southern England.

Yeah I expect so, but it is interesting that some weaker solutions such as GEM are further North, though ECM and GFS both relatively similar to UKMET but a lot further North. Placement will be crucial to if storm gets into right entrance region of jet

Yesterday evening a couple of models suggested some sort of windstorm for Friday. Come to this morning most models hopping on the trend. Don't think that the trend will stick given it is 5 days away but bears watching. Powered by a very strong jet stream. It is a relatively straight jet streak so we can assume left exit/right entrance as best places for storm development. Looks like that most models develop it into the right entrance, allowing to rapidly intensify. Will that really happen? Probably not, but again needs watching GFS: ECMWF: UKMET: ICON: Some good weather watching is always exciting anyway so I will enjoy these few days even if no storm occurs.

Well 12z ICON definitely going the opposite way for those wanting proper cold. Repeat of Great Storm of 1987 anyone?

But thats just the point! The wind and rain is the best part. Because I love the weather, I naturally want to see the most exciting parts, and for me while settled weather is lovely at times, we have had boring settled weather for weeks on end, and after a change, I dont want to go back to it.

To be honest I don't know why everyone is wishing for settled weather after one of the most boring periods of weather in my memory!! I am very excited by the thought of any unsettled weather, and the last few days have been absolutely great. I was really excited by the prospect of a maybe stronger storm being signalled by models recently, but most have taken the foot off the gas regarding intensity. Hoping for a big uptrend personally by model output, but jet looks relatively powerful and then divergent near to the UK, though deepening and associated wind speeds aren't as powerful as one might expect - though of course positioning matters a lot so needs watching. Big shift south on the latest GFS though. Wonder what will happen regarding model trends next few days. Still some quite strong winds on models for northern areas.

oooh Hadn't noticed that... Maybe? The precip type showing a large hail core at the time, you never know

The Outflow boundary just passed through here. The temperature dropped and dew point climbed, as well as winds gusting to near 10mph relatively closed garden. It was great to see weather processes in action with my data! A few large towers gone up now...

Yes, a really great new addition to the Met Office, these short term, more focused warnings within the larger one are a lot better than before. Good to see them using multiple tiers as well, nit just yellow.

Looking at the satellite things are really starting to get going. A few notable cbs on satellite but lots of cumulus. Hopefully some great storms fro many over the next few hours.

It looks as if a surface low has begun to develop over the Midlands...

Sorry Didn't mean to post this!

It's a bit frustrating all this CAPE sitting around being pretty unused! There is so much dry air around, and pressure is quite high of course Hopefully we get something interesting towards the end of the week. Also the 12z GFS looked really great towards the end of July, hopefully we can continue the end of July warmth/thunderstorm streak