Thunder and Lightning

What have I done

Beat me to it!

Yellow warning of thunderstorms from the Met Office! Covers all of the UK Monday and Tuesday with the mention of severe thunderstorms and large hail.

I feel like the heating may have sped up just a bit... And CW said 38c was needed

Yikes! 37c on this one too. 3rd hottest day on record! (I think)

Does anyone know if these 37c temperature readings from Heathrow and Northolt are false?

Yikes, 37c on the latest UKV. Plus it is now showing a few thunderstorms breaking out across the SE and E. It is definitely going to be a wait and see situation!

There sure is very strong capping through Friday afternoon, so even though I know its too early to make assumptions and loom at the details, I am not feeling super excited just given how much of a cap there is. This is the information bit on the forecast sounding for London at 8 o'clock on Friday Afternoon: 1 CAPE and 360 CIN. It's going to be hard for a storm to form in that

I am a bit worried that this huge clump of rain seems to be moving more north-east than expected, and it looks to be on track to hit many inland areas, which was not really shown on many models. I am hoping that this does not kill off the energy to help fire the storms which look quite potent across the S which the UKV was showing. On the other hand the storms didn't seem to be driven by CAPE in the areas they were shown to develop on the UKV, and I think that these storms are being triggered by the vorticity ahead of the trough. Hopefully something like this can happen:

And the lightning has begun!

I'm happy about this slight in the South and South-East Convective Weather CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

Someone tell the UKV to count me in!

The 15z UKV is looking better on that intense 'clump' of rain across the south during Saturday afternoon!

It is feeling quite negative here after not looking through here in a while, though I can definitely understand why . The UKV is not looking too bad for Saturday really, and so maybe there is still some hope? I also think that the last few years have always had something big near the end of July, and I don't really see any big events coming anytime soon, so I feel a bit 'depressed' storm wise. Here are Saturday's UKV charts though

Yesterday the tornado in Dalton Minnesota was rated an EF4 with winds of 170mph, making it the 6th violent tornado of the year! This year's U.S. Violent tornado count is now higher than 2017, 2018 and 2019's U.S. violent tornado count combined! This was some of the tornado damage: In this image there is significant ground scouring And here is the track map: Al in all quite a violent and unexpected event really! Especially after such a quiet spell!

I saw this as well! I couldn't believe it. You can even see the ground scouring as the tornado moves away so it must have been pretty significant. Reed Timmer said that this is the best footage he has ever seen and bear in mind he has filmed intercepts of tornadoes multiple times! The suction vorticies also look very intense in there, and apparently this tornado caused at least EF3 damage.

Interesting to see a level 3 forecast today! I wonder what the day will bring for E Europe? http://www.estofex.org/

You can see the huge hail core from earlier on the storm in Sheffield

Slightly disappointing to see giant anvils move to my north with a perfectly clear sky to my south.

Feeling very convective but I think I have to accept that the action will be north of here...

Looks like the death of the cone has really brought some wonders to Essex! I wonder if @Zak M can see those as well!

Ummm..... WRF-NMM, Are you OK?

Even though I am not in either CW or NetWx's highgest risk zones, I fell encouraged by the fact I am in an Estofex Lvl. 1

Thanks

I don't understand how though as it was in a region that didn't get hit by storms, at least that I know of