Thunder and Lightning

We have kind of moved past it here in this thread but I made a youtube video about the flooding in London on Monday, if anyone was interested in seeing some footage! It was especially crazy for me because I live on a bit of a hill and to see it flood was crazy! Locals said that the last time anything like that happened was the 1970s!

Moderate upgrade mentioned in that!

Yeah UKV 15z in the summer should come out about 19:52, this 18z usually around 22:00 but I am a bit worried this run might be delayed too...

Doesn't look too much like a Kent clipper to me! These look fairly promising

AROME looking good!

Definitely think a moderate would be possible for D1! Hopefully if there is I am in it

*It's official!* Extended Convective Weather CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days. outlook!

Driving to Norfolk on Friday evening, and with the latest UKV run, it would be incredible to drive along with what could be some juicy thunderstorms!

Like you just said, GFS and ICON models in a perfect place for most across Southern UK. Really looking to be an exciting day! Other models as well looking good... waiting for 12z ARPEGE. It will be exciting to see the AROME tomorrow

UKV has shifted back a bit west, which is great news. If things stay like this and hopefully don't shift any more East than it could still be a good event for many.

The ARPEGE and ICON runs still taking things further West, the rest seem to have settled on further East where places like London may still be in play, but that's only if we don't get any more shifts east....

Yeah it just happens time and time again. The only time I can remember it not happening was 23rd July 2019... and I believe that MCS was formed from homegrown storms growing upscale anyway though I can't remember exactly.

Why does this always have to happen though...

The biggest change in the 15z UKV is a weaker, further east and earlier shortwave, along with what seems to be less potent of the main trough out to the West of the UK, from what I can see on the 500mb chart, compared to other models (and previous runs). My worries are these differences becoming more widespread across the models tomorrow morning. My other worry is that I might be in exams for the best of the storms

Has it already happened?

24th June 1994: the evening it went bang! - TheWeatherOutlook forum WWW.THEWEATHEROUTLOOK.COM Coming up to the 20th anniversary of this event for the SE when it went bang with spectacular thunderstorms on the evening of the 24th June 1994... Error - Cookies Turned Off RMETS.ONLINELIBRARY.WILEY.COM Click on the title to browse this journal Found these two!

Well the UKV is already onboard...

There is definitely some consistency now between GFS runs on some significant instability building across parts of England and Wales next Wednesday, which is good news for most! On the other hand it is the GFS of course, so we will have to wait and see what happens. Meanwhile the ECMWF and GDPS seem to agree on the general pattern. We will have to see what any mid-range models say as they come into range over the next few days Really hoping for some good storms!!

A few models suggesting a spell of snow tomorrow night. Hopefully this delivers something!

Pressure dropping pretty quickly now - Below 1000mb

I think there is a chance for some surprise storms tomorrow late morning and early afternoon. A warm front looks to lift north during the morning, with a fairly moist environment, at least for winter: temps 11-13c, dps 9-11c This looks to lead to a few hundred j/kg of CAPE, up to 500j/kg on some models. Quite a lot of energy (vorticity) in the upper levels as well as that low slows down. And not too unfavourable upper level wind profiles: increasing wind strength with height and a nice loop in the hodographs (this skew-t was for NW London)

Here are the highlights for this mornings model outputs The NetWx-MR shows a stronger high across the Atlantic brining down a cold northerly into Christmas: ICON showing a stronger low bringing a northerly as well, just not so much of a high in the mid atlantic. UKMO showing a very strong high right across the mid atlantic as well Access-G (don't really know this model) brings a large high into mid atlantic, similar to NetWx-MR and UKMO. This time the low to the E is much weaker and further E. The GFS has a similar ridge but it is squished to give a NW flow (as everyone has seen) Let's not talk about the ECMWF... CMA (another model I don't really know) showing another strong high GFS 500mb height anomaly show the ridge to be quite extensive across the Atlantic: ECMWF seems to have ridging not extend into Greenland north enough originally, which seems to allow low pressure to slide over the top of the ridge and then break it down before it 'builds up' again. I hope you survived my boring nonsense rambling

Hopefully none of the models join this trend Low pressure really breaks into the UK this run. At least the flow on this is still NW not SW

The 12z GFS shows quite an amplified pattern across the US moving into the Atlantic It looks like things may be trying to erode the ridge but we will see how things play out further through the run

The last one