Thunder and Lightning

In this run it does look like the ridge will be broken down, but it doesn't look like it would be with anything mild. Upper air patterns is relatively calm so hopefully nothing too mild would be driven towards the UK

<-- 6z 0z--> 6z GFS encouraging, with the low bringing wintry showers during Christmas. However the ridge looks like it is abount to get broken down as low pressure moves in, similar to last GFS run, just not as soon.

Nervously awaiting the 6z GFS as well...

12z ECMWF definitely not as exciting as previous runs

I'm just letting everyone know that if we don't get enough snow this year we can move to the Alps - You can always rely on snow there

It looks like wind gusts along the line have only really been 35-45mph. Hopefully they increase soon

My hopes were made high by the AROME and UKV... now they have dipped quite a lot

Already a gust to 70mph at Capel Cruig as the cold front passed, I know it's exposed but it is definitely a sign of things to come!

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/favicon.ico Convective Weather WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days. Severe issued!

The latest AROME is quite encouraging!

It' starting to look good in almost all main models now, especially the ones with higher resolutions. Given how much shear there is I do think some interesting things could happen...

Strong winds at 850hPa so it looks like it could get quite gusty when winds get mixed down to the surface in convection, with very strong low level and deep layer shear! The environment looks to be quite moist as well with dewpoints 11-13c and temps near that as well. Definitely looks like it could turn interesting! (but of course things can change)

The potential squall line on Saturday looks like it could be quite nasty...

This has been mentioned a bit but it really looks like Storm Alex is rapidly intensifying, and for me the satellite looks slightly reminiscent of a sting jet...

Oh. My. God. My Dad took me and my little sister for a 'storm chase' to see some lightning and rain locally because I asked, and when we went it was some normal heavy rain, but with some good lightning occasionally. As we went south into Hampstead, the rain quickly escalated and became torrential, with lightning. Then it moved into probably one of the most intense rains I have ever seen. There were huge torrents of water going down the streets, with the flat areas having flooding, while the hills had torrents. It was crazy. I have tons of footage so I will go through it all, and put a video here tomorrow.

Going on a quick drive to Cricklewood hopefully can catch something

Constant rumble of thunder here!!

I can see the thunderstorm to my West now! Exciting stuff!

Awesome!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Hope you get some great footage and good luck!

Yeah, that area is overlapping with the area of 100mm+ estimated by radar, it's definitely not often you get this type of rain event in the UK.

I am not sure if this has been mentioned already, but a very intense cell seems to be training or has stalled in East London. It looks like a quite a flooding risk and the radar loop is a bit reminiscent to me of Boscastle in 2004

I can't chase for reasons but will be staying up given how juicy some of the latest runs have been!

Nice little moderate in EA. It's quite cute http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-08-16

I'm not sure if this has already been said, but I think the world has made up for the lack of storms this year with a week of (so far) verifying thunderstorm warnings and even MCSs! Fingers crossed it continues into next week...