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Eastern Scotland WX
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Posts posted by Eastern Scotland WX
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Just now, Met4Cast said:
Until the low next weekend is resolved what happens into the following week will change run-run, it might turn mild but most likely models are being too progressive to remove the cold, many ensemble members do keep the cold going, there’s too much scatter at the moment to discern the true signal.
Overall coldies should be happy, turning much colder with increasing snowfall risks just about anywhere as small disturbances/troughs develop within a very unstable airmass.
As I have compared the frames over the last 24 hours, the crazy low has been slowed down by a couple days and has a weaker approach.
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20 hours ago, Premier Neige said:
Viewing ICON on meteociel and it's stuck at 120h. Been on here quite a few years but left chart viewing/analysing to others until recently. Is it normal for models to get stuck at a certain point when they roll out?i
GFS Control is absolutely amazing!
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GFS has a cracking band of snow pushing south across the UK at day 5-6
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We move onto ECM 12z shortly. Best to anticipate downgrades.
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6 minutes ago, TSNWK said:
now to see if the troughs mix out or are enhanched with reloads - could be a frustrating few frames coming up.
GEM the hero for 12z runs then
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Got my popcorn ready for the 12z runs.
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Just now, Paul_1978 said:
I have to say the output looks very good at face value and synoptically stunning, but latest BBC Weather For The Week doesn’t particularly show any kind of wintry nirvana in the next 7 days. Even next Friday temps are well into single figures across most of the UK.
I want widespread snow as much as the next person but looks like anything like this is still a week/10 days away at least.
For widespread snow you want a very cold easterly or NE flow.
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Scrolling through each ECMWF ensemble member and the amount of uncertainty past day 6 is extraordinary. Some push the cold to the west of the UK , others have bit of a stuck low over UK bringing slack cold. Others have violent snowy easterlies. Lots still to play for.
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20 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:
Depends, easterlies are more of a high risk, but higher reward game. I would rather an easterly over a northerly, as they tend to be less marginal due to generally lower dew points. Plus the uppers from the East tend to be less modified if they are in place. You would rarely see sub -15’s make it from the North.
Want east/NErly as Northerlies are the same story everytime usually.
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4 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:
Just because something is an outlier, it does not mean it's wrong so no... It should not be binned.
There is an element of risk of getting the northerly in quicker however it could be high reward but only if the cold air gets far enough south and has enough depth to it! The ECM 00Z op seems fairly simple, it pulls the set up too far north and west, still a very good run mind but because of that it does open the door to milder air in the south, high reward potentially if your in the right spot but dissapointment for others.
Pleasing UKMO after yesterday's run but today's GFS is a dissapointment and I still have that feeling there's a chance the northey could end up being too weak to bring significant cold. GFS run has a feel your rewards will come if your patient enough but it never will.
Getting not too far off the stage where even the details to an extent will be nailed on, I think the northerly is nailed but how cold will it be and what happens after if the trough does end up over the UK.
GFS is fantastic lol, nice slack easterly across the UK and it only strengthens later on. Lots of snow showers for the E. Northerly is good but snow risk reduced.
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7 hours ago, edo said:
don't you start again
.... Perth is fine when it comes from the East.... this winter we will compete with your Narnia
Been a good while since I’ve been in this group. In Aberdeen studying at the moment but back home in Perth tomorrow. Perth needs a E flow , can get away with NE flow but kinda a waste if its all northerly. Think a bit of snow would reach but there be no shovelling knee deep in snow. Fun and anxious times ahead for snow lovers
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Fantastic GFS and GEM…
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1 minute ago, on the coast said:
ECM 120 is unreal? What has brought this on??
Atmospheric cocaine
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Jesus Christ, look at GEM!
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12z runs about to commence:
what we need to see is good cross model agreement towards a scenario such as 06z GFS or 00z GEM.
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3 hours ago, blizzard81 said:
Indeed, the 12z runs are crucial and will be very telling.
In 45 minutes time its all happening again
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16 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:
I'm not going to go into anything too technical, as to be frank I'm very much a noob compared to many knowledgeable posters on here.
And I know ensembles don't tell the whole story, but just looking at these ensembles from the 00z GFS. You'd have bitten your hand off for these at the start of any UK winter. Let alone the SE, so the north will be even better!
The charts further north..
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2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
Brilliant ECM mean!
Not really
its primed for low pressure on top of UK rather than to the south or East of UK
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GEM already at 150 hours! Looks very good as well.
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3 minutes ago, raul_sbd said:
is that on their YT channel? when does it come out?
Will be out like early afternoon ish
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The Met Office 10 day trend will be interesting.
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5 minutes ago, Speedbird said:
Any chance you could crop the image in such a way that it removes the French but includes us in the Highlands ?
cheers
Here you go
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1 minute ago, IDO said:
Yes, thanks, I corrected that! The op goes outlier again on the 0Z at D7-D8 this morning on 850s:
Of course, the postage stamps will be more quantitive as to the synoptic.
I’ve never liked the ensemble graphs on Meteociel , prefer Wetterzentrle as you can see clusters.
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Scotland Weather discussion
in Scottish Weather Discussion
Posted
to sum the next 7 days up for snow risks in Scotland:
>The north are guaranteed snowfall and several centimetres to lower levels here with significant more over high ground.
> The central belt/Tayside/SE Scotland have the lowest general risk of snow but sky high potential of some really severe snowfalls is set up is just right.
> The west will see some snow showers at times but significant snow very unlikely.