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Eastern Scotland WX

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    Model output discussion - Christmas approaches

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Tayside and Fife WX said:

    i've been looking through the ECM ensemble suite and there are several solutions for day 8:


    most likely: something similar to ECM operational run but give or take a 150 miles N/S

    2nd most likely: A large area of low pressure to the NE which is coming out of scandinavia which would bring a lot of cold but less snowfall

    least likely: Low is over or to the N of the UK bringing zonal westerlies. 

    In fact ignore what i said for the second most likely scenario, looks to be that the low shots of the NE bringing in N/NW Winds. 

    Model output discussion - Christmas approaches

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    i've been looking through the ECM ensemble suite and there are several solutions for day 8:


    most likely: something similar to ECM operational run but give or take a 150 miles N/S

    2nd most likely: A large area of low pressure to the NE which is coming out of scandinavia which would bring a lot of cold but less snowfall

    least likely: Low is over or to the N of the UK bringing zonal westerlies. 

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1

    Model output discussion 11/12/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, LRD said:

    For you maybe - longer sea track

    Not for me

    Depending on the scenario. A light slack easterly here with -2C/-3C uppers and some mid level convergence has brought 5-6cm in a few hours. Recently a front was moving from the SW to the NE across the central belt of Scotland , but with strong easterly winds ahead off the front this allowed warmer air from the north sea to mix which resulted in sleet/rain despite having -4/-5C uppers. Other occasions such as Feb 2021 , Feb 2018 the air was so cold (-10C uppers or colder ) that it didn't really matter on the wind strength. Then if the dew points are cold but warmer 2m temperatures ( 2-3C ) it will snow but not stick. Many factors. 

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion 11/12/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, LRD said:

    I know you're a bit of a glass-half-empty poster (not a dig just an observation) but, while I'm not wildly enthused by both GFS and ECM either (in terms of 850s, which isn't the only measure, of course), you can get snow from 850s of -2 or -3 as long as the wind is in the East and SE

    Be hard to get snow from the east with -2C uppers , unless if winds are very light and slack. This is mainly due to an onshore breeze bringing the air of the sea which is 9-11C. 

    • Thanks 1

    Model output discussion 11/12/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Here are both the ECM and GFS ensemble means from the 12z run at day 10. Initially the you would look at the ECM and screw your face up at the high pressure generally located towards the Netherlands , Belgium and central parts of Europe which does suggest a more southerly flow for the UK which of course brings milder conditions. However GFS looks better as it has a stronger signal for High pressure to be planted over the top of the UK it would suggest Calm , dry and chilly conditions. What's interesting though is that ECM is actually a bit more amplified than GFS which would suggest that heights to the north of the UK are likely being favoured in a higher percentage of ensemble members compared to GFS. Very interesting 3-6 days of model watching coming up! 

    image (1).jpg

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    • Like 5

    Scotland Weather discussion

    in Scottish Weather Discussion

    Posted

    this afternoon was abysmal here , lots of rain and at times a few wet snow flakes trying to mix in here and there and combine that with the strong wind. Looks like the Ochil hills have a covering of snow on them above 300-350m asl , although i think the snow line was lower than this further to the west and south. Snow watch which i did was probably a bit to aggressive in terms of the snow depths. 

    • Like 5

    Scotland Weather discussion

    in Scottish Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Here is my snowfall outlook for tomorrow:
    Main points:
    > Disruptive and heavy snow likely above 250m with 5-10cm likely.

    > warmer air will undercut the colder air across Eastern counties , reducing snowfall chances to below 250m.

    > 1-3cm could accumulate to below 100m in a few places.

    > 15cm+ expected over 400m.

     

     

    • Like 8
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