NApplewhite
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Posts posted by NApplewhite
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Just now, NApplewhite said:
Turning more unsettled over the next 8 days.
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Just now, NApplewhite said:
Turning more unsettled over the next 8 days.
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Just now, NApplewhite said:
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1 minute ago, NApplewhite said: Drier and colder than normal across the UK over the next 4 days. High pressure to NW of UK. Turning unsettled over the period October 19th to 26th 2020. Source:ECMWF 12 October update.
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2 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:
Look at this chart for the end of October! very cold and stormy
Drier and colder than normal across the UK over the next 4 days. High pressure to NW of UK. Turning unsettled over the period October 19th to 26th 2020. Source:ECMWF 12 October update.
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11 hours ago, Daniel* said:
Credit must be given to GFS.. the ECM has followed lead with colder air from north moving south on Wednesday. The warm southerlies have all but evaporated. ECM 12z like GFS not looking as unsettled next week either, but quite chilly I’d happily take that.
Look at this chart for the end of October! very cold and stormy
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15 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:
It's almost the Union flag! Maybe it's the Arctic's way of saying "this is gonna be the UK's year, this year"
Knowing the way everything else has gone, I can imagine we're in for a shocking end to the year
Turning briefly a little milder this weekend according to the GFS. Then colder with wind and rain following . A little drier for the far south
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Mixed October ahead followed by a wet November and average December . Slightly higher pressure than normally in June 2021. Is the Netweather Autumn forecast out yet?
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On 15/09/2020 at 08:27, mb018538 said:
Could just be a blip @sheikhy !
Looks like a slightly more unsettled spell by the middle of next week, but generally the main storm track looks like staying to the NW of the UK after:
Could be your traditional NW/SE split towards the end of the month. With AAM staying relatively high, i don't see any plunge into full-on zonal trash here just for now:
Turning very stormy next week across the whole UK
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Hurricane Sally Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 After rapidly strengthening earlier today, Sally's intensity has plateaued for now. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Sally this evening and they have found that the minimum pressure and winds have leveled off, and support perhaps a generous initial intensity of 85 kt. Doppler radar images and reports from both aircraft indicate the inner core of the hurricane is quite small and that the eyewall is open on the south side, likely due to some dry air that has wrapped into that portion of the circulation. Aircraft and Doppler radar fixes indicate that Sally is moving very slowly to the west-northwest, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 300/3 kt. Weak high pressure ridging to the north and east of Sally is expected to cause the hurricane to continue to move slowly west-northwestward to northwestward for another 12 hours, bringing the center of the storm very near the northern Gulf coast. By Tuesday afternoon, when the hurricane will likely be just offshore, the models show the steering currents collapsing and Sally is likely to drift northward before finally turning northeastward ahead of a developing mid-level trough over the central U.S. by late Wednesday. There continues to be a significant amount of uncertainty on exactly where and when Sally turns northward and makes landfall, with model solutions ranging from a landfall on the Florida panhandle to a landfall in extreme southeastern Louisiana. It should be emphasized that it is always challenging to forecast the track of hurricanes in weak steering currents, and in Sally's case the weak steering is occurring very near land.
The new NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the previous one, trending toward the latest consensus aids. Sally is still in generally favorable environmental conditions consisting of very warm SSTs and low wind shear. Since the hurricane will likely remain in those conditions through Tuesday morning, some strengthening seems likely in the short term. In 12 to 24 hours, when Sally is forecast to be very near the coast, a combination of an increase in westerly shear and cooler upwelled shelf waters should limit additional intensification. After the hurricane makes landfall, rapid weakening is forecast and Sally should become post-tropical in 3 to 4 days over the southeast U.S. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model guidance and is quite similar to the previous one. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or the specific timing and location of landfall. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and flooding rainfall will affect a large portion of the north-central Gulf Coast during the next few days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. It is still too early to determine where Sally's center will move onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average forecast error at 36 hours is around 60 miles, and dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the center. 2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in the Florida Panhandle, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected early Tuesday within the Hurricane Warning area in southeastern Louisiana and are expected by late Tuesday and Tuesday night within the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines and the western Florida Panhandle. Tropical storm conditions are already occurring in some of these areas. 4. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely with Sally, as well as widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers, along and just inland of the Central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely across inland portions of Mississippi and Alabama and into northern Georgia, southeastern Tennessee and the western Carolinas through the week. Sally may continue to produce flash flooding across the Florida peninsula and prolong existing minor river flooding across west-central Florida through tonight.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 28.9N 87.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 29.1N 88.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 29.6N 88.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 30.4N 88.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/0000Z 31.3N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 17/1200Z 32.0N 86.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/0000Z 32.7N 84.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/0000Z 33.1N 82.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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10 hours ago, NApplewhite said:
Any snow on the horizon ??
Settled into the end of the month apart from a few small blips - FL I KNOW! Next Tuesday expect cold wind and rain. Storms heading our way from the Atlantic - Ex Hurricane Sally perhaps?
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I am looking for the first frosty night/morning!
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32 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:
If you like high pressure, bank the Ukmo 12h!...As for the GEFS 12z mean, well, it’s hard to believe it’s mid September looking at tomorrow’s charts..SENSATIONAL!!! for the s / se!!.
.and plenty of high pressure to come for the rest of this week & well into next week and warming up again!
Any snow on the horizon ??
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32 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
And the settled weather continues for the forseeable future on ukmo and gfs!!over to the ecm to complete the hattrick!!
Looking good! no sign of rain in England and Wales for a long time! Perhaps we are heading towards a drought! please let us have a dry hot autumn .
Spoke too soon - some rain in the forecast for Sunday and 30% risk of Rain on the 26th September in Northern England according to the models
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3 minutes ago, D.V.R said:
Not UK weather, but the GEM and Icon develop a storm in the Med on Wednesday heading towards Greece.
I don't think I've ever seen a storm like that in the Med?
The storm is off the SW coast of Italy but i've checked the weather for Corfu for Wednesday and temps are 36 degrees with long sunny periods so i don't know where its heading.
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12 hours ago, northwestsnow said:
The coming week will be interesting.
We might import some cooler continental air as we hit Wed , mist or foggy mornings perhaps..
Very wet and windy next Tuesday to Friday according to GEM but looks more settled again at very long range - high pressure re-establishes over UK even on the 27th September 2020 - 30th September after next weeks heavy rain. But thats for the future - enjoy today's hot weather. ICON looks good for this Saturday from a sunshine perspective but expect much cooler temperatures.
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5 hours ago, Jon Snow said:
This is my last post until later today but I had to post the ECM 0z operational charts before I go..WOW!!!..what’s most amazing is how the run ends..with much power to add going forward into late September..anyway, summer returns!!
..cheers gang..
I must say these are the most stunning mid- late September Modelling charts i have seen in 35 years of watching and analysing the weather. Can anyone on the forums remember such summery charts in late September ? I am astonished at this! Speechless in fact! If this was mid June or July what temperatures would we be expecting?
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Why arent the ECM models being reflected in the weather apps ? they arent reflecting the latest model outputs
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5 hours ago, Jon Snow said:
The GEFS 6z mean turns into a PEACH..not literally of course, that would be too insane!!! ...what an incredible mid September with a return to summer, an increasing risk of thunderstorms and then high pressure taking over again...WOW..just WOW if this proves to be right..and there’s plenty of support from other output so far today!!!
...let the good times roll!
Slight downgrade of next weeks heatwave turning into a 2-3 day warm/hot spell mostly in London and the SE. Much colder the following weekend (Sept 18th -20th)
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1 minute ago, mb018538 said:
30c in the SE next Monday and Tuesday on the 6z GFS runI think i need an explanation from Tamara as to why we are seeing the hot spell next week!
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Remarkable ECMWF for Mid-September! Astonishing.
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17 hours ago, Zak M said:
Take a look at the 12z GEM.
The GFS is not far off the GEM either, with the 16c isotherm reaching the Midlands and N England, meaning that we could potentially see a 30c?
EDIT: 12z GFS showing a 30c in London next Monday. And considering the fact that it underestimates temperatures by a few degrees, that would probably mean a high of 33c could be reached. That would be quite frankly astonishing for mid-September if it was to come off.
Is this a result of the AAM turning positve and an impact further downstream from the US heatdome this week and the jet stream changing as a result
Remarkable change in temperatures in Denver! 33 degrees down to 1 degree in 24-36 hours!
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Possible heatwave in SE England next week with two tropical nights predicted and temps of 30 to 35 degrees in London.
Is this a sign of climate change!
Nigel
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Temps of 24 degrees in Northern England and 28 in London next week . I thought we were meant for strong winds and rain this weekend coming now high pressure noses in from the Azores
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.and plenty of high pressure to come for the rest of this week & well into next week and warming up again!
Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2020.
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
A fair start to the day in eastern parts of Scotland and eastern England with some bright or sunny spells here. Rain and cloud through Ireland, Wales and southwest England early in the morning, this then spreading east and north during the day. Wet in Scotland in the afternoon, heavy in the southwest. Damp in eastern England, although heavier rain in northwest England. Drizzle for southern England and Wales and staying rather cloudy. Staying wet in western Ireland. Staying breezy for all. Highs at 10 to 14C.
Friday
Another unsettled day on a Friday as a shallow area of low pressure crosses Ireland and the UK. This brings rain into Ireland and western parts of England and Wales through the morning, spreading eastwards through the afternoon although turning lighter and more patchy. East Anglia and southeast England may stay dry although always some drizzle along southern coasts. Scotland will have some rain in the south but most other parts will be drier with sunny spells, apart from a few showers on western coasts. Highs at 16C in much of southern and eastern England, 14C in northwest England and Wales, 10 to 12C in Scotland and Ireland.
Saturday
A deep area of low pressure over Ireland on Saturday will be bringing a windy day to all. There will be rain, most of it in the north and west and some of it could be heavy. Eastern parts will see more patchy rain although it is going to be staying windy here as well. Heavy showers across Ireland, some of them could be thundery. A risk of severe gales in the west. Highs at 10 to 16C.
Sunday 1/11/20
Another unsettled day with more wind and rain for most areas. The heaviest of the rain will be across western parts of England, Wales and western Scotland as well as Ireland. Eastern parts of England and Scotland seeing light rain overall. Highs at 9 to 16C.
Monday 2/11/20
Rain may linger across southern counties of England through Monday as a front become slow moving. Elsewhere it should be brighter with some sunny spells, but also showers affecting western areas. The heaviest of the showers in western Scotland and western Ireland. Cooler for all. Highs at 8 to 12C.
Tuesday 3/11/20
Day of sunshine and more widespread showers on Tuesday. The showers may be heavy I will pass from west to east. Longer spells of showers could affect western Scotland and the west of Ireland. A breezy day. Highs at 8 to 12C.
Wednesday 4/11/20
A ridge of high pressure builds across the UK and Ireland on Wednesday. There may be some morning mist and fog patches in more sheltered areas as well as a touch of ground frost. For most the day will be bright and dry with some decent sunny intervals. Highs at 8 to 12C.
Thursday 5/11/20
No pressure remains across the country on Thursday. They may again be some morning mist and fog patches and these could be slow to clear. Where they do the day should be dry and bright. Breezier in northern Scotland where they could be a few spots of rain. Tempertaures around 7 to 11C.