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NApplewhite

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by NApplewhite

    1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

    This morning's ECM ensembles continue to steer in a direction of a N/S split between 5th and 10th July, with the south largely experiencing good weather occasionally interrupted by weak features, but the north experiencing changeable weather with the possibility of more settled weather pushing further north still within the spread.

    EDM1-168.GIF?29-12  EDM1-216.GIF?29-12

    With the Azores High always centred to the SW, no notable heatwave likely, but mid 20s at times for southern and eastern areas, just possibly a day or two in the higher 20s, which isn't actually that bad. The thing is, we've become so accustomed to extreme heatwaves in recent years that such temperatures appear cool! Not at all - it will probably be slightly above average for those south of the Scottish border.

    Very poor weather over the next 10 days across the UK as Low Pressures and the Atlantic dominate. Well below average temperatures this week and next week in North Wales with plenty of overcast skies and intermittent rain. Almost zero sunshine this week. image.thumb.png.1d5542bc6716e1fc0d7349b5e3480132.pngSome hope at +384 hours for a weak ridge. 

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 hours ago, NApplewhite said:

    Looking a bit better on Thursday this week as a nose of higher pressure (try's to move) in from the Azores never establishes though.  NW/SE split. Further attempt on Sunday 5th July 2020  . Tomorrow is a washout across the UK (last image)image.thumb.png.879688ae166a8acb4244447d483ea88d.pngimage.thumb.png.5292301d03cd164457de457c75569ddb.png Jetstream doesn't look great though on the 6th July so a lot of strong high level winds even under the higher pressure.  La Nina has a 50% chance of developing over the next few weeks. Causing a US heatwave in the MidWest and cooling across N Europe

     

    image.thumb.png.bbc4297a50c52f0c06f4625d4ea9c950.pngimage.thumb.png.7accb510fc8d8ec0eff54c4395d62b1b.pngimage.thumb.png.7cb7a9ee60b9c48952932ae87b0ffb5e.pngimage.thumb.png.05b9a1ecc4bed4f7f7b57ca104576b09.pngimage.thumb.png.93897749b8704b8a765ef2ffbd996493.png

    GEM is slightly better - but we still end up with a trough next weekend. 

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    41 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Not sure I much like the look of the GFS's rendering of a week Tuesday?:shok:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    But, I might start to like it should it try for an Azores-Scandi link up.:oldgrin:

    We have been trying to get an Azores / Scandi High link up for several months - it never happens!  As Tamara says the Pacific ridge is influencing the jet stream downstream - heatwave in Mid West USA causing the jetstream to power out of Canada then the deep dive south in the Atlantic so we always remain to the South of the jet.  Look at the low temperatures over the UK / France for the next 16 days. 

    12_6_arctic850.png

    12_384_arctic850.png

    12_276_arctic850.png

    12_183_arctic850.png

    12_141_arctic850.png

    12_87_arctic850.png

    Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by NApplewhite

    2 hours ago, MATT☀️ said:

    Thanks for that insightful post @Tamara I've got to agree with that also, and what Blue states as well.. The GFS 6z mean tends to ebb and flow with that Azores High Pressure. We see the extension of it building in at times and especially for Central Southern parts, before a little breakdown and trough bring rinse and repeat scenarios moving forwards. This looks like a potential trend for July in general with plenty of usable conditions, and at times probably very warm. The EC46 seems to highlight this type of pattern quite well with the ridge building in at times before receding back SW after a few days. All in all the long term trend is pretty good and more especially away from those NW locations.

     

     

    gens-0-1-168.png

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    gens-0-1-240.png

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    GFS 12 Z is a horror show for summer lovers look at Monday 6th July 2020  - instead of high pressure we now have low pressure over the UK - weak ridge on Wednesday at 03:00.  Even further out in two weeks time another low pressure over NE Scotland/Northern England 

     

    image.thumb.png.1a6e7cbd088de79275508429600968e6.pngimage.thumb.png.a781ca447518e4aaf1b9c2658360ba61.pngimage.thumb.png.208c90291f4ddf689d7ce931379ed48d.png

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by NApplewhite

    2 hours ago, Zak M said:

    Now that's a tasty 06z GFS :clapping:

    gfseuw-0-192.png

    Looking a bit better on Thursday this week as a nose of higher pressure (try's to move) in from the Azores never establishes though.  NW/SE split. Further attempt on Sunday 5th July 2020  . Tomorrow is a washout across the UK (last image)image.thumb.png.879688ae166a8acb4244447d483ea88d.pngimage.thumb.png.5292301d03cd164457de457c75569ddb.png Jetstream doesn't look great though on the 6th July so a lot of strong high level winds even under the higher pressure.  La Nina has a 50% chance of developing over the next few weeks. Causing a US heatwave in the MidWest and cooling across N Europe

     

    image.thumb.png.bbc4297a50c52f0c06f4625d4ea9c950.pngimage.thumb.png.7accb510fc8d8ec0eff54c4395d62b1b.pngimage.thumb.png.7cb7a9ee60b9c48952932ae87b0ffb5e.pngimage.thumb.png.05b9a1ecc4bed4f7f7b57ca104576b09.pngimage.thumb.png.93897749b8704b8a765ef2ffbd996493.png

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    40 minutes ago, carinthian said:

    Morning all, ECM springs a nice surprise at 240h. Not really to be unexpected as the pattern so far this summer keeps returning to a default position. (ie) High pressure building over the British Isles, Central European and Atlantic trough dominating. Cooler and windier intrudes fairly short lived . Reasons to be joyful for you lot going by this chart.

     C

    ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

    http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 cool NW, comfortably warm SE for a couple of weeks. rain fairly general week 1, drier in SE later

     

    GFS: LP Sub 28th/Mon 29th over Scotland, decaying with some N-ly air entrained. New large LP in Atlantic Sat 4th moving off to Faeroes Sat 11th and filling, some warm air entrained at first esp in SE but later cooler stuff coming down the back edge. W-ly zonal stuff at end of run.

     

    GEFS: In the S becoming cool and dry until Mon 29th; then average and damp  until Sat 4th after which a lot of scatter, mean close to norm but o and control going in opposite direction and one outlier 13C above norm! Fairly dry for this period. Scotland a bit below average temp to the 4th then like the S, bits and pieces of rain throughout.

     

    ECM: Much less active Atlantic from Sat 4th, in fact major new area of HP on Mon 6th covering UK and with warm air to boot.

     

    FAX keeps LP more active over UK for several days with secondaries still forming on Tue 30th

     

    Not a lot of agreement this morning.

    Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

    I'm not ready to pay attention to that yet. Didn't we see things pointing towards Northern Blocking at the beginning of June which lead a lot of us down the garden path into thinking June would be a write off? 

    Its a 3 fine days and a thunderstorm for North West England and Wales! Typical! its been a very strange June! back to the cold weather next week for us northern folk! 

    Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by NApplewhite

    52 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    64F3785C-8531-45DB-9A13-1456A3077F49.thumb.png.ea33f3616cd8f5431061371cb0ff40b6.png

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

    Have to admit that going forward this is a bit of a concern into July. Haven’t seen much of it this summer so far, but northern blocking and -AO/-NAO is starting to show its head now. With a trough in our neck of the woods it’s not a great sign IMO.

     

    Looking average going into July - slightly drier than normal image.thumb.png.015a85a75ce36810b7fab6377d9e361c.pngimage.thumb.png.0ef81bc0250ff91ae0ffc378b3274846.pngimage.thumb.png.3f0b925e25d9033b196ca1f9f5c18c74.pngimage.thumb.png.5cae1537bc3a05e0c3d7deb13ccc9dfd.pngimage.thumb.png.6ad6eec3d2fce289f22c920e6fc4f1c7.png Pressure to the SW - not good and low pressure over Eastern Europe and Scandi - not good for high temps with a NW wind from the Mid-Atlantic! No signs of any heatwaves in July. 

    Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by NApplewhite
    Added temp charts

    46 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Almost a clean sweep on the poor output this morning, GFS probably offering the most as it attempts to build some warmth in initially In the east through the weekend and then more widely as it build a weak high pressure near the U.K. However the outlook for the west and south west remains less certainly even on gfs. ECM, GEM & UKMO to T120 considerably more disappointing as the weak trough remains near the U.K. producing a lot of cloud again ECM only has temps above 20c for eastern England, never really gets above 18c until beyond the weekend here. The washout appears not to have a materialised for most however looks like a good 5-6days at least of gloomy, cool conditions on the cards for many especially in the southwest, the extreme east and north always fairing best. UKMO and ECM appear also to be looking to dig another large upper trough down from the northwest.
     

    Certainly almost zero settled, warm and sunny conditions bar the odd day in the near Future with a jet pointed at the U.K. from the north west, I sort of preferred GFS longer term as despite the lows in the west it would start to build a more normal summer pattern and increase the chances of the extension of the Azores high northeastwards. 

    As usual the warm humid weather fails to materialise! we have had nine days of Cold weather in Wales and i can't cope with another 14 days of terrible summer weather.  Time to book a holiday to the Greek islands in July for two weeks of suimage.thumb.png.d56770720dec036d272e7318379f9317.pngn - oh no i just realised i can't escape the UK!  How can I get my sunshine fix this summer?  I hate the UK summers! 

     

    Today (June 10th 2020)

    A cloudy and murky start, but mostly dry, before showers move in eastwards from the coast through the morning, reaching easternmost regions in the afternoon. Showers will begin to turn heavier along the west coast through the afternoon. Maximum temperature 16 °C.

    Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    EC looks to be similar with its progression to UKMO from what i have seen which inturn suggests the Azores high ridging in to settle things down post trough looks a good shout at this juncture.Hopefully paving the way for warm temps and less emphasis on showers..

    As per EC mean guidance over the last few days...

    ☀️

    We need the Azores High! What are the meterological reasons why the Low pressure isnt tracking west! Come on Azores High the UK needs you! 

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