[Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?]

2 hours ago, Gerryhattrick said:

That's exacta what I was thinking  

2 hours ago, Gerryhattrick said:

That's exacta what I was thinking  

Plenty of rain this weekend on the way!

[Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?]

September is a very tricky month! sometimes the first two weeks are settled i remember that very warm autumn back in 2002 i think (correct me if i am wrong) that had a heatwave until Mid-November  I remember 1986 being a fine foggy month. 

[Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?]

I'm assuming everyone is at work and given up on summer and we are now waiting for the snow lovers to start posting in November onwards. 

[Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?]

12 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Jeez nobody wants to post..for 13 HOURS!!!! how pathetic!..anyway..you want it warmer?..  

[Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?]

12 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Jeez nobody wants to post..for 13 HOURS!!!! how pathetic!..anyway..you want it warmer?..  

Yes the forums are very quiet. The outputs are showing cool unsettled and windy weather so i think the GEFS P20 is an outlier. 

[Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?]

5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

The last two runs from ECM have been extremely wet for southern areas. First the monstrous heat then the floods? 

If this is the last gasp of summer than i hope we get a long hot summer in 2021. 

[Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?]

28 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Looking at GEFS 0z mean the last third of August could be bordering on or indeed autumnal?...of course we should remember that it’s not all about what the GEFS shows, it’s merely a cog in the wheel.

 

Yes very much like we are going to suffer an early autumn. Im glad im off to Greece for a week on the 22nd to avoid this. Some major fluctuations in the GFS - last night they were showing high pressure in these time frames now low pressure!  Enjoy today as its the last day of the Tropical heat . 

[Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?]

6 hours ago, wellington boot said:

I understood your point the other day about successful interpretation of these charts requiring a good dose of experience, as well as your point about it being a moving average and needing to be understood in that context.

With that in mind, do today's charts not show a striking shift from yesterday's? Seems quite a dramatic shift North and East by that low pressure.

Separately, I wonder if you can shed any light on how these NOAA anomaly charts are actually produced? Is there another suite of model runs which is aggregated and summarised this way? Or is the underlying data/method completely different?

Low Pressure returns  and jet stream fires up at + 8 day range  Uk left on cold side of the much more powerful jet that exits Canada and our old friend the Iceland low sweeps across the UK bringing temperatures down to just 13 in Northern England and North Wales.  Summer ends next Tuesday 18th August.  Week commencing 24th August looks distinctly cool and wet!     

[Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?]

10 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The 12z GFS (removing the absurd idea of that large enclosed low) is on a similar trajectory to the ECM, an open trough would allow winds to veer towards the west or north west as opposed to the generally south to south west cyclonic flow (The GFS is actually quite warm in places still to day 10), UKMO looks very ECM like.

Looks like 30c could be reached on Thursday as the progress of the Biscay low looks more hindered than initially thought.

 Heat swept away by Saturday with low pressure all the following week centred over the Republic of Ireland  Rain only over the land! remarkable! ECMWF shows very unsettled cool conditions all next week. 

[Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?]

1 hour ago, Dominic Carey said:

What temperatures would this set up bring?

Temperatures to plummet Sunday onwards for another week down to below average/average. Eg 15 degrees in north Wales. The weather is returning back to June/JUly types with constant low pressure and NW winds. early autumn on the way based on the models

[Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?]

ECMWF  00 model is out and it shows a cooling off from Sunday to Wednesday next week as a low pressure system established itself over the UK.  Much lower temperatures by the 19th August as the Scandi high remains and the azores high ridges north allowing the jetstream to move leaving us on the much colder side. 

 

 Wet outlook for this week.  Longer range is distinctly average. 

[Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?]

On 07/08/2020 at 06:21, MattStoke said:

One op run of one of the poorest verifying models shows something cooler several days ahead so it’s all over.  Just the usual boring, nonsense troll comment.

[Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?]

24 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

UKV 15z temperature summary:

Friday 36C

Saturday 35C

Sunday 33C

Monday 34C

And Tuesday...35C

 

22C for me on that above chart...bank!!! 

Quite an incredible run of heat for many of our Netweather members - whether they like it or not. 

Plenty of storms breaking out on that run also!

Soak it up all heat lovers - this is the real deal! 

Its the real deal for London but not for us Welsh folk

[Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?]

5 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

That's just computer projections though, which people are taking as gospel.    Over 100 miles you will get a much more balanced temperature gradient.    I'd say 22C to 32C  will be the on the day values. 

Ludlow is showing feels like temps of 40 degrees next Wednesday yes i know its a feels like temp not the air temp!

[Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?]

57 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

The last post from me today, got my bugle / trumpet ready!

Just wanted to say, looking at the ECM 12z operational it’s not just the SE that’s hot for most of next week..unless I’m misreading the charts, they show nationwide summery conditions with hot sunshine but also a risk of T-Storms too..

PS...I’m happy for you guys in the SE, you deserve this roasting hot spell, enjoy it!...stunning output across the board..our summer has been officially rescued following last months filth!!!

Amazing charts but why are all the weather apps showing 22 -27 for tomorrow up north but the temps on the 10 day forecast are in the 30s all week! why arent the apps keeping pace?

[Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?]

9 hours ago, Daniel said:

Gfs 6z now keeping 30s till next Friday for southern areas 

I am expecting the usual progression by the morning and massive downgrades

[Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?]

5 hours ago, Captain Shortwave said:

UKMO pretty consistent on the passage of events early next week.

      

Looks like by Wednesday we may start to see a more significant area of low heights form at it begins to interact with that shallow Atlantic trough. So perhaps a more widespread outbreak of showers and thunderstorm developing by midweek, however the timing of this is uncertain and will be more drawn out than the normal set up due to how far north the main arm of the jetstream is going. By the way, yet again temperatures will be hot to very hot across the south with this extending northwards during the first part of next week.

GFS also looking god for the first half of next week too, however it is still struggling to get the proper shape of the longwave pattern right with that weaker southern arm dipping into the Bay of Biscay.

      

Just a random little note about the GFS, it has a high of 33C for Friday, but 34C on Saturday.

So five, perhaps six days where 32C+ could be reached in the south in a row. More limited in the north of course.

 

Also a few posts have been hidden from last night, please refrain from making personal comments please. Thank you  

Looks like a big temperature upgrade is coming

 

Have a look at GFS 06Z (right) compared to GFS00Z (left) for next Thursday 13th August and the previous run . 

2 degrees have been knocked off the highs for tomorrow (August 7th 2020) though across most places in England and Wales.  I can see more changes by tonights 12Z. 

 

[Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?]

Its a nightmare living in Wales!

[Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?]

1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

Best of both worlds for you then CC - avoid the extreme heat and get some pyrotechnics!

No heat in Wales still we miss out on the fun. Average temperatures apart from tomorrow. We can expect some thunderstorms though

[Model output discussion - into July 2020]

9 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Any upgrades to friday/saturday temps?

no upgrades at all. Look - this time last week they were predicting the whole of England and Wales were going to enjoy exceptionally how temperatures. Now its just the SE of england as usual while us in Wales are stuck with average summer temperatures and a "one day wonder" - not me its the met office saying this. Gutted is the word! We need a massive shift of 300 miles to the west of the warm air to bring Wales into the heat. 

[Model output discussion - into July 2020]

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

Well I've watched the latest Met Office's lastest take on what the models are currently saying... and it's Phew, what a Scorcher: 

But anyway, do any of the main models disagree with this?

For Wales we are facing a warm day on Friday then its game over. If the ECMWF medium range is to believe i will have the central heating on here and my hat gloves scarves and tights on to keep warm next Friday as we shiver up North

[Model output discussion - into July 2020]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Definately wouldn't be out of place in somewhere like Spain!

Exceptionally hot night coming up there, given the uppers remain warm, if we do get any cloud cover coming over in the evening, could make a run for warmest ever min.

27 overnight in London only 16 here in Wrexham. Im only 161 miles from the capital

[Model output discussion - into July 2020]

3 hours ago, 38.7°C said:

Upper 850s for Manchester are shooting for 20C once more 

Most weather apps are only going for 20 degrees on Saturday onwards! How can they ignore the Upper 850s! i dont understand. Sites like Accuweather always seem to massively understate or underpredict future temps1

 

[Model output discussion - into July 2020]

4 minutes ago, Daniel said:

For those up In Scotland you will be glad to know gfs was a big cold outlier 

London showing 40 degrees on Monday.  What is the exact town or city that hangs onto the imported SE heat? Ie where does the heat end in England?  Looks like im only 161 miles from the heatwave! we just get one warm day. 

[Model output discussion - into July 2020]

5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

To be fair, it wasn't that long ago the GFS had the heat totally gone by Saturday morning.

If anything over the past couple of days the length has been drastically increased in terms of how long the heat is going to hang around, at least in the SE.

Last Sunday we were looking at blowtorch temps in Wrexham of 30 degrees for 3-4 days now we might squeeze out 1 day. The GFS has messed up again!  I hate progressive charts!