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NApplewhite

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Posts posted by NApplewhite

    Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Downburst said:

    From this on the GFS 06z, which was not very good,  image.thumb.png.227aaf105fb22017d3c69b30e682693b.png

    to this on the 12z run, the Greenland low doesn't really exist and never makes a connection to the SE. Our local low is cut off. Hope it works out like that. Will need to see. But in many ways the theme to me has been whether the Azores high can link up with the Scandi or not. Fine enough line 96 to 144 hours to watch.

    image.thumb.png.f01d0519c3a0cf7dfbd5becc2d3e49ad.png

    I expect the low over Greenland to reappear and low pressure/trough over the UK in the 18Z run tonight! GFS you are a pain! you bring me hope and its always dashed in overnight runs! 

    Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by NApplewhite
    Add graph

    21 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Ukmo good apart from 120 hours where the low out of no where winds up further north!!gfs looks better than ukmo up to 144 hours!!after that though ukmo would look better i think with that low travelling westwards with hot and humid air coming in from the south east!!

    Wow the low pressure is now centred off the NW cost of Portugal! A long way from the UK and dragging in warm air at +180 

    GFSOPEU12_180_1.png

    GFSOPEU12_264_1.png

    Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, MATT☀️ said:

    I'm seriously considering giving the GFS operational runs a wide birth in future, just a few days ago we had settled all the way from the op now we have unsettled all the way, especially from day 7 onwards.... With Low Pressure slap bang over us for days!! The mean is not really supporting of this and continues to show a decent prognosis further down the line.. Perhaps we could save on the Valium by reserving our efforts for the mean folks. Because I tell you what I'm pretty sure my BP as elevated these past few days..

    gens-21-1-192.png

    gens-21-1-228.png

    gens-21-1-264.png

    gens-21-1-288.png

    gens-21-1-324.png

    gens-21-1-348.png

    gens-21-1-384.png

    graphe4_1000_251_92___.png

    I used to look at the GFS Operational as my prime source of information about the coming weather but i now realise that i could probably created a better and more accurate statistical meteorological model to forecast the weather up to 16 days in advance. I would advise members of this forum, who like me, love analysing and forecasting the weather to use a combination of all the models and focus more on the Mean pressure charts rather than the tosh that comes out of GFS Operational. As i said the other day, there are numerous examples of GFS over inflating temperatures and they seem unable to forecast the weather even 48 hours in advance.  I think the ECMWF is more accurate along with UKMO.   In the short term its a lovely afternoon in North Wales, the cloud is breaking up and its turning much warmer and more humid than the 14C GFS forecast! 

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

    It sets sail for America but then gets stuck off SW Ireland and merges with another low so not much of a westward movement. Hopefully this will reduce the rain totals in England and Wales due to this and allows in a warm and humid easterly flow. 

    GFSOPEU06_228_1.png

    GFSOPEU06_192_1.png

    GFSOPEU06_168_1.png

    Looks very unsettled for the next 16 days though! up to +384

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    GFS 06Z is curious. Up to T108, it's pretty much as before. But then the low to the SW decides to be adventurous and set sail towards to America! 

    gfs-0-108.png?6  gfs-0-150.png?6

    It sets sail for America but then gets stuck off SW Ireland and merges with another low so not much of a westward movement. Hopefully this will reduce the rain totals in England and Wales due to this and allows in a warm and humid easterly flow. 

    GFSOPEU06_228_1.png

    GFSOPEU06_192_1.png

    GFSOPEU06_168_1.png

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by NApplewhite
    Added text

    Heavy rain forecast in GFS across Eastern Ireland, whole of wales, Midlands, Yorkshire, NE England, parts of Scotland, Mid Southern England between now and Sunday 14th June 2020.  Low pressure anchored to the SW of England as show below, higher pressure over Scandandvia and low pressure over Continental Europe.  Warm and Humid over Central.Eastern England, London, Liverpool, Manchester, Chester/Wrexham cooler and fresher conditions eleswhere. Two areas of Low pressure will dominate the weather week commencing 15th June 2020 and turning much colder.  No sign of any settled weather on the horizon.  Washout and zero sunshine over the weekend of 19th  - 21st June 2020. 

    GFS_156_UKD0_APC (1).png

    GFS_156_UKD0_G50.png

    GFS_252_UKD0_G50.png

    • Like 3

    Monday 8th June weather observations

    in Weather reports

    Posted · Edited by NApplewhite

    Overcast in Wrexham but relatively mild around 10 degrees in Bradley, Wrexham at 06.37.  99.9% Cloud cover at the moment.   Temperatures for this week:

    Monday 8th June 2020 - 14c

    Tuesday 9th June 2020 - 17c

    Wednesday 10th June 2020 - 13c - Heavy Rain

    Thursday 11th June 2020 - 13c

    Friday 12th June 2020 - 21c

    Saturday 13th June 2020 - 29c 

    Sunday 14th June 2020  26c

    Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by NApplewhite
    Add graph

    16 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

    Icon the 1st one out of the blocks, and the first one to be flushed down the lav.. Trough City Central. 

    icon-0-162.png

    As i thought ICON has the trough dominating weather across the UK, Northern France and the Benelux!  I am sure GFS will follow (which i lost faith in about 4 years ago after numerous occasions of predicting heatwaves at +120 then changing to rain and low pressure in the next couple of runs). Why does everyone always focus on GFS? This is not the weather i want in high summer but this is the UK and we can expect cold weather over the next 5 - 6 days before temperatures recover (though remaining very unsettled as the trough - which is difficult to shift, embeds itself for the next two weeks slap bank over the UK)

    GFSOPEU12_39_1.png

    GFSOPEU12_51_1.png

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    All indications from UKMO, GFS, ECMWF are of a brief ridge of high pressure moving in for about 36-48 hours and then retrogressing as the trough develops over England and Wales. Very unsettled and cool next week though there is hope of a rise in temperatures to the season average. Plenty of rain to look forward to after the dry spring. 

    • Like 3

    Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by NApplewhite
    Rain fall chart added

    30 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    Looks like Langdon bay in Kent held up the most at 21.5C, looks like the August 1990 record will be safe.

    I'm noticing there could be some huge rainfall totals on Saturday where the clash of cooler air from the West and warm air over the east occurs. Seems like that same line of rain is over Germany too which should make for an interesting race at Hockenheim...

    A lot of uncertainty over just where abouts that line of persistent rain is. Depends on how quickly the heat from Thursday moves east. GFS edges it into the North Sea on Friday whilst ICON has been showing it holding on over eastern England consistently over recent runs. Not an easy forecast.

    image.thumb.png.d51b7a4bc5c001d999f90af5471445b0.pngLatest GFS 2m Temps onimage.thumb.png.f24fff2ff7549f075722d27a2578eab3.png 06Z - HIGH reimage.thumb.png.d39a3abade52dec9cae009f31038b5ca.pngs shows peak of 36C in London at 15.00 nothing like the 40 degress forecast earlier. I dont think we will break the record tomorrow 

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