[Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer]

3 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

A nice day on Tuesday but then look at the Jetstream by Friday! 

In the short term look at the awful weather across Wales at the moment 

[Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer]

1 minute ago, Polar Maritime said:

Temps at this range is/was never a done deal, And agree it was always only a couple of days with said max temps for the South..

A nice day on Tuesday but then look at the Jetstream by Friday! 

[Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

The movement of the upper trough and energy distribution, and subsequently the ridge, are paramount of the next couple of days and according to the gfs it goes like this

Thus on the surface frontal activity and cooler air will push slowly in from the west with the possibly of a classic Spanish Plume scenario whilst the the south east remains very warm

Yes as i thought its going to be a one or two day warm spell then it gets swept away! its a repeat of June - predictions of temps in the high 30s and low 40s feels like temps are washed away as we get nearer the event! Cold Front will sweep the heat away from all but London and the South East by Thursday am. 

[Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer]

3 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

UKV take on Mon/Tue temps.

Massive downgrade of temps at D7-D10 on the GFS 18Z. Temps down 10-14C on the forecast for the period Wednesday 24th July to Friday July 26th 2019. I predict it will be a two day heatwave then back to average. 

[Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer]

36 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The EC mean looks very very warm next week, mon/tues could be hot in the sarf!

 

Looking good in Southern England 

[Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Insert other media.urlInsert other media.urlInsert other media.urlAs @mb018538 points out, there are signs of a coming together in the models this morning in the D4-D6 range, but because of doubts over the intensity of the incoming low, I think the D7-D9 is far from resolved.

Again the new GFS/FV3 has done a good job picking the pattern at around D8-D10 - the ECM had not seen the ridge breaking to Scandi at all in this range. 

Looking like a massive heatwave Monday to Thursday next week - GFS has 37 in Manchester and 40 degrees in Sheffield then temperatures plunging to 13 by D10 . Rain across London at the moment and turning fresher today 

[Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer]

18 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The good news is that the ECM op was overly aggressive with the low, and a bit of an outlier at the end. The mean now touches 15c next Thursday (25th July), so the odds of a significant warm up are still there. 

Remember what happened with the last hot thundery plume predictions a few weeks ago ! It was massively downgraded into a one day SE wonder ! I wont believe the GFS 06Z until much nearer the time.  However, Its going to be gloriously hot and sunny across England today so enjoy the blue skies and sunshine and tonights partial eclipse of the moon. 

[Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer]

I'd agree - forecasts yesterday of high temperatures in places Like London have gone and the models are showing a lot of precipitation across the UK over the next 240 hours and only average temperatures. Looks like various troughs will cross the UK over the next 10 days. 

[Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer]

5 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Not the most summery end to the Gfs 6z operational but at least the 850's don't look too bad!

No sign of a heatwave then for the next 16 days! Very disappointing 

[Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer]

1 minute ago, NApplewhite said:

Average pressure in July and High pressure throughout August. Sadly the orientation of the High is to the NW so id expect average temperatures due to the NW origin of the air.

End of July is looking very wet anywhere north and west of London and the South East.

[Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer]

Average pressure in July and High pressure throughout August. Sadly the orientation of the High is to the NW so id expect average temperatures due to the NW origin of the air.

[Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer]

9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

GEFS ensembles look good for a steady warm-up starting around July 4th...though, any hints of a plume-repeat must be considered an outside bet?  But a good opportunity for things to dry out...I do hope that that general decline in SLP (it's in FI!) doesn't come about.

  

  

ECMWF NH profiles look rather good too:

  

Long term GFS forecast shows a heatwave on the 5th to 9th July 2019 focused on london with temps of up to 34 to 36. But this is probably FL

 

 

[Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer]

Various models are showing much fresher weather from Sunday! Rain moving in from the N Atlantic!  Very disappointed with the plume non event!

[Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer]

14 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Thanks for letting me know. Always like learning new things.

I have a very good feeling about this plume but it would be such a shame if the winds etc didn't fall right and dampened it. I mean, how often do we get the 20c-25c isothern in the UK? Hardly ever.

I knew the surface temps would be downgraded! i posted last Tuesday / Wednesday that GFS was overcooking the temperatures. Temps of 33 at night have been downgraded to 9 on the latest run in London! GFS is very inaccurate. This plume is going to be a non event at the surface.

However i am looking forward to the electrical storms across Wales and England tonight! Could be a spectacular event with torrential rain and many lightning strikes (though it could disrupt travel)

[Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer]

4 minutes ago, Team Jo said:

If your post is more to do with a funny feeling in your tummy rather than from actual model output/data, then you’re probably best to drop into the model moans/general summer chat threads.

ditto if you are searching every single frame for a hint of a downgrade... just let it unfold....! Don’t get sucked in to analysing every single run. Compare like with like... don’t get hung up on the lack of record breaking temps.

be cool! Literally... be cool.

Seeing a downgrade of CAPE values in GFS 06Z for Monday.

[Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer]

24 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Just a quick word this morning. The ECM shows a thundery low crossing the UK and this suppresses maximums. The low also affects behaviour of the other low pressure to the SW and the run is messier. Although the ECM doesn't show it, a feature could get stuck in the North Sea or the UK which in turn could cut off the supply of really high uppers.

 

GFS on the other hand is much cleaner and therefore by Wednesday we get the really hot uppers across a larger area of the UK with relative ease.

 

These little nuances won't be resolved to T72-T96 so I'm still being cautious about the really hot uppers later next week... for now.

I've got a feeling that we are facing a massive downgrade in the 12Z GFS and it will turn into just a brief warm rather than hot spell. No support from ECMWF of the extreme GFS values.  I'm feeling down and very pessimistic now

[Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc]

Just now, danm said:

Met Office app raw temps for Manchester around 22c for Tuesday/Wednesday. 27c/28c for London. 

Meteogroup Weather app forecast is now saying the following

MANCHESTER NEXT WEEK  (feels like temps in brackets)

Sunday - 21 (22)

Monday - 23 (26)

Tuesday - 23 (27)

Wednesday - 25 (28)

Thursday - 23 (25)

Friday -21 (23)

 

LONDON

Sunday - 25 (27)

Monday - 27 (31)

Tuesday - 28 (34)

Wednesday - 30 (37)

Thursday - 26 (30)

Friday -25 (28)

 

First week of July only 21  - 22 in London

 

[Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer]

Looking like 42 degrees feels like Temp in London on Tuesday, 43 degrees on Wednesday and a distinctly cold 34 degrees on Thursday. !  London will be like a furnace all next week!

[Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer]

52 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Good grief! An insane 06z, will have to wait until saturday / sunday before calling any prolonged heatwave but the GFS has certainly being consistent.

I think we can be confident about some hot weather and thunderstorms on Monday and probably Tuesday. Anything after that is still uncertain!. Quite concerning levels of heat there...

Sorry to bring everyone back down to earth but GFS 06z is terrible by the end of the period 

[Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Those are 'feels like' temperatures - not actual air temperatures. Just a result of the crazy 6z run with high heat and humidity.

Id be happy if it felt like 41!  I'm in London all next week !

[Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer]

This is showing a brief tropical heatwave next week! i dont believe this will actually happen! there were no signs of this so surely GFS is way off the mark with this!

 

According to Meteogroup temps might reach 23 to 26 on Tuesday then low 20s rest of next week. Just across the Channel in Paris it will be 35 degrees! I hope we can get some of that continental heat after a freezing May and June. Have had the central heating on high all month!

[Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer]

Surely this is a mistake - GFS says 41 degrees C in London at day 10! I bet it's downgraded to 18 degrees by the 12z run!