Beanz

I don’t think there’s anything wrong with the 3 month average, it’s just another tool in the box. It would be nice to see some breakdowns though, accuracy might be questionable though..?

Well I wasn’t expecting that this morning, an October GLOSEA showing something akin to something more like winter for U.K. and Western Europe. Sea Temps maybe not great though?

What is surface mass balance, or what does it mean in the context of this discussion? Genuinely interested

True that, one of the fascinating, or frustrating, things about the weather is we still haven’t really nailed the science when it comes to forecasting longer range. That’s what keeps us all hooked eh?

There’s no science in Gavin P’s commentary, it’s purely just that. I agree though, that we’re experiencing a different autumn to that of previous years, and the models are looking interesting for early cold. Certainly worth being aware of.

Whatever happens, the signals will be there right up until t72, then they’ll disappear

I didn’t read it like that. I think the point is that we don’t know what affect climate change will actually have on our weather, patterns rather than global temperatures.

Are we? Feb last year saw the lowest recorded temperatures for 20 odd years…

November will be quite chilly, feeling surprisingly seasonal unlike recent years. Not much action from the Atlantic, most likely cold from the north and east. December will start mild, then from mid month onwards we’ll see cold, mainly from the north. Snow likely across much of north and east of the country from the 18th, remaining with us for at least a week. January will be warmer from the second week onwards, slightly above average and rather benign with high pressure dominating much of the month.

Well I've just ordered firewood for this winter, will probably try to rely on that more than the central heating this year - if we can. I expect we'll have the central heating on for an hour in the morning when we wake up, and then use the wood burning stoves in the evening, which heat the downstairs nicely. The later might see action next week, depending how cold it gets, but otherwise I expect a good few more weeks before our heating starts to see regular use. I stuck the electric radiator on in my outdoor office for an hour to warm it up a couple of morning's this week. The building has been very well insulated, so it tends to stay quite warm for most of the working day after that, at least at this time of year. When the temps are down in single digits, it needs a bit more of a boost occasionally. Unsurprisingly, I find when I'm sitting at my desk working is when I feel cold because I'm not moving about.

‘Better’ and ‘grim’ mean different things to different people…do you mean wet/dry/cold/hot/windy?

You can but try presenting what is black and white, but some must apply there own colours. I don’t mind a debate over what is opinion or conjecture.

Yes, there is. —————- My comments apply the same to the Cambrian period, although one could argue the relevance to todays species is farther removed. —————— Well clearly you’re contradicting yourself, you’re either not sure or you’re certain, which is it? But let me help you, the rate is unprecedented, it’s widely accepted. This particular paper is perhaps a useful read, I would suggest. http://climate.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Paleoclimatology.pdf

I’ve already posted evidence. However, you can’t compare Jurassic periods to present day as most species were able to evolve and adapt to a naturally hot planet where temperature and CO2 increased (and decreased) over periods of 10s and 100s of millions of years. That ‘explosion’ you refer to, was a very, very slow process! The increase in CO2 and global temperatures over the recent 50 years is unprecedented in its rate of increase. Most species will not have time to adapt because the rate of change is quicker than what natural adaption and evolution can cope with. That’s the important difference between natural cooling and warming, and man made.

I’m sure a few minutes googling will provide all the scientific research you need. Species migration from their natural habitats due to hotter temperatures, pushing those that can migrate to higher altitudes and different areas, or cooler waters. Some can adapt to the new environments, but some won’t, and some can’t migrate. Some will lose their food source, some won’t, some species won’t reproduce in higher temperatures. The effects are there, the results are up for debate, but waiting to see the effects first is not the best action. I'm sure you’ve seen or read about coral bleaching caused by warmer sea temperatures? Swathes of coral reefs have become baron, almost lifeless - and it’s not being replaced elsewhere. https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/coralreef-climate.html https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2015094118 We know what climate change has done historically to the planets living species, which of course wasn’t man-made climate change, but the impact was undeniable. The discussion around whether our current climate warming is a consequence of human activity or not is another debate, but the effect of climate change on the planets biodiversity is difficult to ignore.

You’re aware that the global warming is destroying species habitat in the tropics, right?

I’m not sure that’s true, in fact I’m struggling to think of a single species on the planet that would prefer the climate to be warmer.

We’ve got quite a downpour and thunder and lightning just started north of the river from you, Colchester area…doesn’t feel any cooler though unfortunately

No AC here, apart from in the car! We converted our garage last year, the upstairs is my office. It’s got huge amounts of insulation in order to comply with the latest building regs. It stays cool up until lunchtime and then it starts to warm up. The house on the other hand, was built out of timber in the 1700s and the downstairs stays cool all day long, even without us having curtains. It’s quite an odd contrast, and I’m not an expert enough on 18th century building methods to understand why, but I’m liking it!

It’s like being in the Alps during summer - but the other way around!

28c here on the outskirts of Colchester, feels hot outside but not ridiculous.

Interesting, I have to admit to being a bit removed from things lately - I better do that 4.7 upgrade (or whichever one it is!)

There is an Invision app in development (I’m running the beta) for communities that use their platform, it’s fairly good.

Is there any live satellite data of the storm? Be interesting know how far in/out we all might be

Just had 5mins of eery calm here, now back with vengeance.. sizeable tree next door just come down. can feel the pressure drop, quite weird