Beanz

Ok, I don’t agree

I was talking present, rather than past tense. Nobody is suggesting there hasn’t been any until now, but the effects are far more noticeable more recently.

I think as our weather and seasons continue to respond to change, this thread is likely to be become a thing of the past…just like snow falling in the south of England. I never expected climate change to have such an immediate impact, or for its effects to be felt so quickly year on year. I think some of the more obsessive members in the MO thread probably need to think about a new winter hobby.

It actually felt quite seasonal here yesterday, and last night with temps down to around 6-7c Means the heating was required though

All looking quite positive for a chilly, frosty winter, surprisingly positive MetO update. game on!!

Your posts haven’t made sense for years

No cold blast is wasted - take whatever these days

It’s a relief to know that energy prices are forecast to decrease (ignoring even the current spike) over the next 2 decades.

I am less worried about the short term price of energy than I am about the impact that climate change is having on our weather. Rather ironic that the cause of using too much fossil fuel has lead to us requiring to use less… I’d much rather have an average winter this year. Some snow, plenty of frosts and ice, unlikely though

This really sums it all up for me, bonfire night was generally always a time to be wrapping up warm (mittens on elastic hanging out of my coat sleeves) as it would invariably be cold when I was child (in the 80s). Snow has always been hit and miss down in the south, but the noticeable change in our winters is not snow fall, it’s the less cold conditions and lack of frosts. I would say, that’s been a fairly recently noticeable thing too, probably only in the last years. Bonfire night is still a milestone for me when it comes to the winter. Watching the weather forecast tonight, I found myself feeling pleased that temps were forecast to be dropping to lower double digits next weekend…how times have changed.

Is it not more likely that global warming is more likely to be affecting global weather patterns. The type of winter we experience is indirectly a consequence of global warming….

Certainly agree, I think we’ll see temps plummet to around 15c

I didn’t ask you to, I think you’ve jumped into a response I made to a slightly different comment - but thanks for your tuppence

have you paused to think about what if you can’t afford to heat your home because feeding your kids is more important or you’re a Ukrainian sitting out the winter in a trench without your home and family and heating, I reckon you’d probably see the benefits of a mild winter a bit differently if so. I would love this winter to be cold and snowy, but I’m under no illusion that my wants pale into insignificance (and are quite selfish and I’m in the minority) compared to the needs of some less fortunate folk this year.

Every cloud

Tough to admit, but this is the new normal. Hey, look on the bright side, the more above average months we have the more the average will increase and eventually in a few decades time we might have a better chance of below average tenors occurring again…albeit we’ll be wearing sunscreen in November by that point

Yes, what the models show in 16 days time...might as well post our guesses for the winning lottery numbers for the same day.

wow…,what’s this? I’m ok Jack? Just because your back yard is ok doesn’t mean the whole country is. Do you live in an area of the U.K. that is entirely self sufficient on every raw material and natural resource? You don’t import anything from anywhere? No, I didn’t think so. I think it’s generally accepted the average rainfall across the U.K. has been well below average, many areas are looking at very low water supplies. We, do need rain, as much I loathe to admit it. I also don’t live in an area that experienced seriously low levels of water this year, but the areas that do have adequate supplies will be sending it to areas of the country that don’t if we face a situation where supplies have not been replenished by next summer. So it affects us all.

They're not forecasts, they're model output covering a long range period and presenting average data for that period.

GLOSEA is a success and works, it makes lots of money every year - surely that’s all that counts

Heating has clicked on once or twice in the mornings for an hour, thermostat is set to 15c at the moment. We’ve had one of the stoves going in the evenings for the last week, it’s nice and toasty and keeps the central off. I think we can probably just stay that way for winter now.

Because; a) that’s not what they’re designed to do; and b) you can’t sell inaccurate forecasts

If a LRF could pick up such an anomaly, then we probably wouldn’t have this hobby to which we are so hooked on, and this forum wouldn’t be anywhere near as busy as it is. Carol Kirkwood would be telling us exactly what the weather will be 8 weeks in advance of it happening. I take your point though, we are desperate for detail and it feels frustrating that our meteorological tools aren’t as advanced as we sometimes think they should be, particularly compared to advancements in other areas. We have to remember what LRF and these models are for though, and who uses them. They’re not built for us amateurs to see anomalies and predict exact events, in fact they’re not built for anybody to make exact forecasts. They are used to help create seasonal forecasts which are used by farmers, infrastructure managers, government organisations who need to plan ahead to manage their climatic dependancies or risks. For us, they’re a background, they help us understand how the global systems are likely to behave over the given period and pick up signals. They set a scene, a canvas if you will to which we start to add outlines and colours as we progress closer to the event.

Right, I’m not sure how to answer that other than repeating what I said - I didn’t say anything about it being representative of anything and certainly nothing to do with 2010. You need to get a grip on the 2010 thing, it’s not the be all and end all and certainly not the fault of a GLOSEA model (or any other LRF) if it can’t predict a repeat of one particular event that happened 22 years ago. The GLOSEA model is an early barometer of the next 3 months, its high level. That is what it is. So we use it, as a tool in a box of others at this point. Nothing more than that. Lets keep our heads level, it’s only October!!

Wow, relax. I didn’t say it was representative, I said it’s a useful tool.