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If you look at the ECM 00z ensembles for Oslo for next Monday, the highest is 0.7 with the average at -7. The 850s on this run is higher than the highest of the ensembles of the morning run.. Weird or bad luck again?

GFS average and control very close to operational by 132. So basically UKMO, GFSparallel vs GFSop, GFS ensebles, GEM, Icon

New GFS (Parallel) seems closer to UKMO at 120

Quite impressive difference between GFS and UKMO at 144hr.. UKMO run with almost 0 850s in Oslo seemed a massive outlier 2 days ago...

When did the SSW of 2018 happen? Was it mid february?

At least for my location and according to the ensembles, ECMWF 0Z is a massive warm outlier.. I too,don't trust GFS and ECM-UKMO together seem a very strong indication but let's wait...

More than 500mm of rain here at the south east coastal Norway this December. This is an all time record

ECM 850s ensemble mean rising towards mid January. ECMWF 14-day ensemble weather forecast for London METEOLOGIX.COM London, England, United Kingdom - The ideal weather forecast for the next 14 days. See the results of all 50 ensemble members of the ECMWF model in direct comparison for several parameters.

Don't worry. Here in Norway we had -7.5 850s and it constantly rained with +2 degrees. Eastern winds over the Skaggerak sea and warm eastern Europe. There is no cold to our east so eastern winds are much warmer than normal even with -7 850s

Bad evolution with this stupid low close to Svalbard blocking all the cold...

ECM very close to Ukmo for 144hrs... Basically ECM keeps the same pattern as it was shown at the 00z run, and Ukmo followed..

Personally, I make the same mistake every year at the start of the winter. Watching the models beyond 72 hours for the long term. Even the ensembles are a joke after 120 hours.. ECMWF ensembles today changed from -6 to -3 in just one run for 180 hours ahead!!! I am stopping model watching for a week

I am a bit surprised because most of Central and Northern Europe had temperatures much warmer than normal even with minus AO this December. Actually it is probably one of the warmest ever in Scandinavia, warmer than last year's with a positive AO

Insane run, GFS 06z.. This is exactly what I need to stop moaning Lots of snow in coastal southeast Norway. That combination of Scandi high and low pressure in England is what we need for the Sea effect snow bands along the Skaggerak Sea. And the end of this run is astonishing! Polar vortex in Scandi with extreme low temperatures even at the coast. Come on Santa pleeeeasseeeee

I like what I see from GFS control extended!

Is it worrying that although Polar Vortex seems pressed, it seems that we do not get a split or a major warming according to the latest GFS run?

1070 actually https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/run/gfs-0-372.png?0

Looking at ECMWF Operational can't share most people's excitement. Actually 850T are looking pretty terrible in Europe. The only good thing is the Atlantic quietness and the "potential". Let's see if that word verifies,ever...

UKMO is closer to ICON.. I wouldn't trust GFS at this stage..

850temp uppers in day 10 is just a joke Reminds me of late march...

Really?? Can't see anything impressive, all Europe 2m temperature is plus except for Lapland. The massive difference is that high in the western Russia part. During 2010 it was a low sending siberian cold into Europe. Now instead we have a low rotating itself and sending relatively warm winds to the entire Europe. Only Iceland gets benefited You can see that in 850temp deviation in day 10. Colder than usual only in the ocean

Following a record breaking November, December seems to keep the same pattern Rekordvarm desember fleire stader på Vestlandet WWW.NRK.NO Vestlandet viste seg frå ei usedvanleg varm side laurdag, berre eit par dagar unna julaftan. Fleire varmerekordar fall.

Before this winter I mentioned that after 88-89 a 89-90 followed and maybe after a record breaking 19-20 we are going towards the same pattern during 20-21. For here things look pretty awful. December 2019 +3 above normal January 2020 + 6,5 above normal February 2020 +5 above normal And this winter starts with November 2020 +4-5 above normal December 2020 (we have not yet recorded a minus temperature with an average min of -5!!!) I believe and looking towards the output from the models, at least +3 above normal (probably even more). Should I moan now?? I don't ask for a crazy 2010, but at least something close to normality!!(even though this is a hard word, I believe we live in times of a new "normality")

The problem is not that it is mild again. The problem is that it is RECORD mild again! Over 5 degrees above normal in most of Norway in November(record breaking) and the same patterns continues in December(I can also see some records there if GFS verifies). No problem with the mildness, I know we are heading towards more and more mild winters, but right now we are breaking records..

Not a single day of subzero temperature recorded so far in December and probably this will continue at least until 15th of December!! After the warmest ever November we are heading to maybe one of the warmest December ever? It's simply stunning.