topo

Nice pictures from Oslo fjord this morning. Although not a snowy winter so far, this January has been below normal after 2013.

After many years the sea has started to freeze in the protected areas in Southern Norway. So probably if the models output verifies we could literally see this

I have mentioned this before but I am surprised on how consistently the ECM operational is much warmer than its ensembles after 168hrs.. It is like a repeated pattern, I am wondering if it just a matter of luck or something else..

Ι am expecting ECM to be an extremely warm outlier especially for Scandi.

Finally a real Beast showing...

What I've been told by a meteorologist it is that "Yes they are overrated". We have seen that heights in Urals caused the 1st SSW of this year, so the main question is "Which came first: the chicken or the egg?" So is SSW causing things to happen at lower levels, or the opposite? Or both?

Promising day 10... Ooops this is the 100th time this winter

I have a feeling that ECM provides a much "cleaner" and correct solution between 96-144 hrs.. GFS and GFSparallel have too much going on around the low pressure (lots of troughs, lows inside low etc) in southwestern Norway.

GFS parallel retreating to GFS op. I believe we will see UKMO doing the same in the morning

Hmm, ECM seems very close to GFS. GEM, UKMO and GFS parallel go for another solution..

Amazing last run changes for here. Especially gives UKMO and GFSparalel gives us some real hardcore snowstorms. 24 hrs ago rain here in the south seemed certain. Fingers crossed!!

If you look one by one the ensembles there is no possibility of severe Siberian cold penetrating into Europe. The reason is low pressure in Scandinavia, quite the opposite of what we all hoped. Moreover, Atlantic seems more and more active after 240hr.. So probably La nina force winning the battle against SSW? Also, a lot of the ensembles show the same high pressure in western Russia that was too stubborn during December, coming back. Rinse and repeat?

Is there an explanation why ECM, GFS, and GFS op are warmer than their ensembles for Scandi for next week? At least for the last 2-3 runs the patterns is the same and seems a bit weird.

Exactly!!! Can't really get it.. Minus AO, Minus NAO, SSW all these combined and the weather maps look horrible with rain even in Oslo or Stockholm!! Maybe after all all these indices, SSWs, are overestimated

Impressed again by ECM 192 smashing all ensembles to the warmest. Incredible!

Oh lord! What a rubbish Look at these 850s in Mid Sweden by the 21th. Even the most extreme warm ensembles did not have so high 850s.. It's a joke.. Oh and yes promises again after 240hr... Not gonna happen.

It's ridiculous. Even in Scandinavia which seemed certain some hours ago we are struggling to get real cold even at 240hours.. What a bad luck..

Apparently not

Looking at these amazing images from the center of Madrid (best snowfall since 1963) reminds you that everything is possible regardless the ongoing climate change and global warming. 35cms and keeps going. You just need luck, lows and highs at the right position. Of course probably these events get more rare, but they will happen again. Tip: Search for "Madrid" location in Instagram. Incredible pictures are being uploaded by folks there. Webcam : Live Cam Madrid - Metropolis Building WWW.SKYLINEWEBCAMS.COM Imposing view on crossroads the Gran Via and Calle de Alcalá

GFS parallel seems again much more realistic and in par with UKMO and ECM

Impressive!! And it's not even in the Alps

Ι suspect the weather station is placed in a doline? The 850s are not something special. I now several weather stations that are situated in dolines in the Appenines or in Pelloponese in Greece that have recorded similar temperatures.

I would say closer to GEM

Just a comment. I am not sure if I should moan but : After the record warm last winter we have until now : The warmest November ever, The 4th warmest December ever (+4.6 degrees from normal). Much of the southern Scandinavia still almost snowless (Oslo, Stockholm, Helsinki but also Tromso!) Let's hope that the SSW will bring the cold back (I would be even happy with the average levels)

December : 4th warmest ever (4,6 degrees above normal) In some places in southeastern Norway, wettest ever. Feilmelding 500 WWW.MET.NO