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DavidS

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Everything posted by DavidS

  1. GFS is consistently showing a warming of sorts at the back end of its run Thus nicely matches the anomaly on the EC extended for week commencing 20th Nov.
  2. Well ski season is upon us, and right on cue the snow gods have started to deliver. Images are GFS off Wetter for 24,72 & 120hrs
  3. Picking up again now and trying to settle on the tarmac, but probably not just cold enough. My weather app says it’s rain, but is definitely snow.
  4. Snowing here in Abergavenny. Could be in for a decent accumulation.
  5. Just over halfway through our visit to Obertauern and as usual we are having an excellent time. It’s been very warm this week and the slopes have been softening quickly in the strong sunshine., particularly today. The tactic has been to get up early to get the best conditions, especially as it is carnival week and is very busy. Should be a bit colder the next couple of days which will help with the conditions and then much colder next week, but i will be back in the UK then.
  6. Nice evolution on the GEM this morning and by day 10 we have this
  7. That looks perfect. 3 weeks until my trip to Obertauern.
  8. Just transitional until the next cold plunge as the high backs west
  9. Recent GFS runs have been trying to build an ever expanding Alpine snow palace and the 00z is no exception. Days 0,5 & 10
  10. I’m liking the overall output this morning across the models, with the trend to keep heights out to the west and lowering pressure to the east and south east. GEM is particularly good in latter stages for 850s.
  11. Some cheer for the Alps from the model output this morning. ECM brings some snow. Obviously the forecast at Day 9 is less reliable, but we should be seeing widespread snow across the Alps in the coming days.
  12. I believe the highest January CET is 7.6c set in 1916, (please someone correct me if I am wrong). Looking at that plot it doesn’t look like it is showing anything too far from average really, certainly not anything that suggests record high January CET. The plot is also for Cardiff, which probably isn’t the best location as a representation of CET
  13. GFS 12z is smelling the coffee at Day 16. Atlantic high about to ridge North to Greenland, with a portion of vortex about to drop on our heads. Well I can dream, right? It’s called FI for a reason.
  14. Can’t do detailed forecasts, but snow looks likely. See below for the improving situation. Charts from 7th to 10th Jan from the 00z GFS
  15. Reasonable cross model agreement out to day 5/6, after which there are varying solutions, which I guess is to be expected. Also to be expected, (unfortunately), is the GFS 18z FI easterly, disappearing on the 0z. Oh well, maybe it will be back later.
  16. The 6z gfs shows an improving picture from around the 8th / 9th Jan, but not great before then. Let’s hope for further improvements in the model output.
  17. Happy New Year all By the end of the 0z GFS. a large rodent has appeared at 10hpa and is looking to nibble away at the SPV.
  18. Massive signal on the 6z GFS for a SSW. Temps going above 0c . This has been building for a while, but this is the most significant output yet.
  19. Yes GFS getting more bullish on this now. Temps now being modelled upto 0c at 10hpa. Still a long way out, but nevertheless very interesting.
  20. The GFS has been flirting with this sort of idea for a day or two and continues it with the 6z too, although the 00z looks like the best option so far. Let’s hope it continues with this theme and all of the alps can get a good pasting.
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