DavidS
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GFS is consistently showing a warming of sorts at the back end of its run Thus nicely matches the anomaly on the EC extended for week commencing 20th Nov.
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Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2023/24
DavidS replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Well ski season is upon us, and right on cue the snow gods have started to deliver. Images are GFS off Wetter for 24,72 & 120hrs -
It's snowing! Your reports & pics.
DavidS replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Snowing here in Abergavenny. Could be in for a decent accumulation. -
Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2022/23
DavidS replied to J10's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Just over halfway through our visit to Obertauern and as usual we are having an excellent time. It’s been very warm this week and the slopes have been softening quickly in the strong sunshine., particularly today. The tactic has been to get up early to get the best conditions, especially as it is carnival week and is very busy. Should be a bit colder the next couple of days which will help with the conditions and then much colder next week, but i will be back in the UK then. -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
DavidS replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
DavidS replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2022/23
DavidS replied to J10's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
That looks perfect. 3 weeks until my trip to Obertauern. -
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
DavidS replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just transitional until the next cold plunge as the high backs west -
Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2022/23
DavidS replied to J10's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Recent GFS runs have been trying to build an ever expanding Alpine snow palace and the 00z is no exception. Days 0,5 & 10 -
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
DavidS replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Agreed, not disappointed with this -
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
DavidS replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
DavidS replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’m liking the overall output this morning across the models, with the trend to keep heights out to the west and lowering pressure to the east and south east. GEM is particularly good in latter stages for 850s. -
Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2022/23
DavidS replied to J10's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Some cheer for the Alps from the model output this morning. ECM brings some snow. Obviously the forecast at Day 9 is less reliable, but we should be seeing widespread snow across the Alps in the coming days. -
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
DavidS replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I believe the highest January CET is 7.6c set in 1916, (please someone correct me if I am wrong). Looking at that plot it doesn’t look like it is showing anything too far from average really, certainly not anything that suggests record high January CET. The plot is also for Cardiff, which probably isn’t the best location as a representation of CET -
Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2022/23
DavidS replied to J10's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
DavidS replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS 12z is smelling the coffee at Day 16. Atlantic high about to ridge North to Greenland, with a portion of vortex about to drop on our heads. Well I can dream, right? It’s called FI for a reason. -
Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2022/23
DavidS replied to J10's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Can’t do detailed forecasts, but snow looks likely. See below for the improving situation. Charts from 7th to 10th Jan from the 00z GFS -
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
DavidS replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Reasonable cross model agreement out to day 5/6, after which there are varying solutions, which I guess is to be expected. Also to be expected, (unfortunately), is the GFS 18z FI easterly, disappearing on the 0z. Oh well, maybe it will be back later. -
Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2022/23
DavidS replied to J10's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
The 6z gfs shows an improving picture from around the 8th / 9th Jan, but not great before then. Let’s hope for further improvements in the model output. -
Polar Vortex / Stratosphere Watch 2022 / 2023
DavidS replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Happy New Year all By the end of the 0z GFS. a large rodent has appeared at 10hpa and is looking to nibble away at the SPV. -
Polar Vortex / Stratosphere Watch 2022 / 2023
DavidS replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Massive signal on the 6z GFS for a SSW. Temps going above 0c . This has been building for a while, but this is the most significant output yet. -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
DavidS replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes GFS getting more bullish on this now. Temps now being modelled upto 0c at 10hpa. Still a long way out, but nevertheless very interesting. -
Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2022/23
DavidS replied to J10's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
The GFS has been flirting with this sort of idea for a day or two and continues it with the 6z too, although the 00z looks like the best option so far. Let’s hope it continues with this theme and all of the alps can get a good pasting.