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DavidS

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  1. DavidS
    The last two GFS runs hold some interest, albeit beyond day 10. They show the idea of the jet running on NW/SE alignment into southern Europe. This would bring lower temps and some much needed snow to the Alps, however as this forecast is almost 2 weeks away it is outside the reliable.
  2. DavidS
    Agreed. I have limited experience in watching the models (3 years). But that 18z doesn’t make sense to me. It just looks wrong.
  3. DavidS
    Not too much for UK Coldies to get excited about with this mornings output. Day 7 onwards the ECM wants to lower heights and temperatures to our SE, which would be a welcome trend, however the GFS doesn’t want to do this until after Day 10, and does so by very different means. The ECM at Day 10 shows a ridge being thrown up to our west. Probably a topper, but maybe it would push further north.
  4. DavidS
    Agreed. That chart for the UK, in isolation, doesn’t look great, unless you are a fan of south westerlies. However hemispherically it is fascinating and doesn’t indicate to me, there is a zonal train incoming.
  5. DavidS
    After last nights disappointment, I said the only thing that could cheer me up (a bit), was snow. Just a dusting, so just a bit happier.
  6. DavidS
    Please! I need a pick me up, and that would help
  7. DavidS
    Obertauern as usual
  8. DavidS
    Looks amazing. Keep that snow fresh in Salzburgerland until I visit in February.
  9. DavidS
    I love it when the 850 anomalies look like this
  10. DavidS
    168 to 192 and the low looks to have stalled. Images in wrong order
  11. DavidS
    Looks promising to me. This at 210
  12. DavidS
    And by the end we go again
  13. DavidS
    And we are back to where we started….
  14. DavidS
    Wow, the 12z ICON is really going for it and within the semi reliable. Will be interesting to see if it sticks with this on subsequent runs. It has been right before.
  15. DavidS
    Todays GFS 12z (albeit past day 10), would be an acceptable solution for Ski resorts in Scandinavia and the Alps, with a significant improvement in snow cover. Days 11-13 below. This is thanks to generally NW flow with the jet digging south through the Med.
  16. DavidS
    South Westerlies for ever on the 6z GFS
  17. DavidS
    With the SST anomalies in the Gulf of Alaska, cooling off somewhat…….. …….it seemed there was the possibility that the NE Pacific ridge would back off, but it remains as does the familiar pattern you mention.
  18. DavidS
    UKMO EU smelling the coffee this morning, and it smells bitter.
  19. DavidS
    GEM is ok for me past day 5 with jet looking to align NW/SE. D6, 9 and 10 below.. At least we’d get some weather.
  20. DavidS
    Yes I agree. GEM and ECM show a general west to east movement of the TPV during the 10 days. It is not possible to tell if this would allow any height rises in behind as it were and we have seen this pattern repeat through January, with little hint or opportunity for high pressure to move north. Exciting it is not.
  21. DavidS
    Might not make it to Scandinavia, but it is different.
  22. DavidS
    High pressure forever on the 00z suites this morning. The GFS has us under high pressure for the entire run, with only deep FI really suggesting it might want to e on the move.
  23. DavidS
    The 6z GFS Op is a thing of beauty, but it sure is a complicated dance with the low pressure in the Atlantic alternating between cut off and not cut off.
  24. DavidS
    What the ‘flip’ is going on here then?
  25. DavidS
    Yes, bit of a snooze fest unfortunately. High pressure either over us or just to our west. Plenty of cold on offer to our east, but no sign of high pressure backing further west or north, to allow the UK to tap into it. Our weather probably not very mild or cold for the next week to ten days, just a bit meh.
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