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DavidS

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Everything posted by DavidS

  1. DavidS
    All hope, no expectation
  2. DavidS
    So what is the ECM serving us up this morning. Well for the next 5 days we’ll have some milder weather with rain, followed by a cooler 5 day period with you’ve guessed it folks, rain.
  3. DavidS
    Really wish I wasn’t awake to see the 00z GFS roll out.
  4. DavidS
    It feels like it’s there for the taking, that euro high just needs to politely shove off.
  5. DavidS
    The theme is continuing with forecast zonal winds. Even the bias corrected CFS is showing full on reversal options.
  6. DavidS
    Or coffee smelling trend setter?
  7. DavidS
    Great post. Thank you.
  8. DavidS
    GFS 12z having a good go later on at warming things up. Temperatures reaching -12.
  9. DavidS
    I would rather have signals for a constant wintry nirvana, but in the absence of that particular fantasy, the evolution of the GFS 6z past D10 is ok for me. Dry weather, and plenty of frosts you would hope. Also with a big chunk of vortex pushed over to Russia, is there a potential for heights to retrogress to Greenland?
  10. DavidS
    Yes, the GFS 6z definitely takes a turn for the mild in Fantasy Island, or should I say Nightmare Island. But of course the models always want to revert back to climatology when they are not sure what to do, (he says trying to convince himself).
  11. DavidS
    Yes, European snow coverage is improving. I also notice a few pixels in Scotland, which should be increased today I guess.
  12. DavidS
    Yes it’s very sad. Let’s hope the season can get going properly in January. Still it’s nice to see the snow coming now and it looks like you will be getting quite a bit in the next week or so.
  13. DavidS
    Yep, certainly looks that way. Both uncorrected an bias corrected CFS showing significant weakening of zonal winds.
  14. DavidS
    What’s this then? A yellow hole. What will it do ??
  15. DavidS
    Yes it pivots north as another low comes in underneath. The Russian High is still strong, will it push west? Probably not.
  16. DavidS
    Snow continuing its westward advance.
  17. DavidS
    The current uncorrected and bias corrected CFS . Obviously these can and do change significantly on a run to run basis. But nevertheless, the indication is there for a significant reduction
  18. DavidS
    Bank! Won’t happen, but bank. I’ll take the 1 to 2 inches for my location in South Wales.
  19. DavidS
    Model watching continues to be of great interest. The detail varies, but the theme continues. Higher heights to our north and lower heights being shown over Europe. All very positive for those that favour cold. And in the extended GFS, is that an Arctic Hare I spy?
  20. DavidS
    What are the chances of the monster Russian high, present at the end of the ECM, pushing west?
  21. DavidS
    Yes it is a long way off.
  22. DavidS
    The below chart was posted on the model thread. I haven’t looked at the strat charts for a while. Will be interesting to see if the trend develops / strengthens.
  23. DavidS
    At day 10 on the ECM the Euro picture is not ideal, but as others have commented recently, the Northern Hemisphere Profile is encouraging with the PV shunted well away from its usual location.
  24. DavidS
    Yes, the Control was much colder and closer to the Mean at day 9/10
  25. DavidS
    Good indications for a cooler and more seasonable spell of weather in the coming week. With the potential for something colder in the extended.
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