DavidS

How key is the low to the south of the high in the mid Atlantic at 216.? I’m sure a couple of weeks back people were commenting on a similar situation .

Much improved European snow cover.

FI GFS shows ‘potential’

Cracking battleground scenario. Can we get lucky?

I think the ECM is still interesting from a NHP point of view. I like the way, the vortex is moving west to east. This has been a theme of late. Images are 48hr intervals out to D10

Looking at the NHP for all the 0z runs, the one thing all the models look to be doing is moving the vortex core from west to east, (less obvious on the UKMO because of the timeframe). So although the ECM and UKMO look to be flattening the Atlantic somewhat, there shouldn’t be the energy available to really fire up the Atlantic and cold UK prospects should remain.

Yes, loving the Parallel this morning. As others have mentioned, along with the UKMO it has been one of the more consistent models. Past 144 or even 120 always increases uncertainty, especially at the moment. But if the GfsP 0z comes off, I’ll be a happy coldie.

Good agreement thrifty D6/7 between the GFS and ECM 0z. Days 8/9 we see some divergence as the GFS doesn’t get the Atlantic block north to Greenland and instead slips south. GFS first at D9, then ECM

Yes it’s FI, but look where the vortex is.

Are the interesting yet unusual operative evolutions and wide ensemble spread indicative of the models trying to get to grips with developments in the strat?

A week or so ago there was a GFS control run that showed some outrageous Synoptics in the Extended. I think maybe the 12z op has just matched or bettered it.

Joe is not to be ignored. He mentioned in one of his vids at the end of November, that the models would start to show pressure rises over Greenland during December and he was correct. In the short term, snow chances for some in the next couple of days, but as usual, detail will be difficult to pin down right up to T0. In the medium to longer term this is the best opportunity we have had for an extended spell of cold weather in a very long time. This model watching is new a thing for me, just a couple of years, so feel I am getting lucky with current output. Here’s to being lucky

I’ve not been doing this model watching very long, so my experience is limited. But how often do we see the GEFS with the AO like this? The spread is wide, but one member is off the scale negative.

I’m loving the way the 500 anomalies evolve on the GFS 6z. Below some of the snapshots from day 8.

Agreed, bank! If that comes off where I am in South Wales, they’ll be good sledging for days

When you consider what we’ve had for the last few winters, that is a cracking mean.

I found this, although they no longer have the Eurasian view. Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover - NOHRSC - The ultimate source for snow information WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV

The Mean looks good too

Was 2010 not n example of the PV ‘dropping’ on us? Or have I got that wrong? Feb beat me to it.

GFS setting up a game of Spot the Difference n FI with the 18z and 00z..........I don’t think it understands the premise of the game.

Gotta love a Johnny Cash reference

Just viewed this run, it is completely outrageous. Definitely a coldie at the controls.

00z keeps the theme going, with a significant warming showing.

I’m not sure what the GEM was drinking last nigh, but it is very different to GFS and ECM. This at D10 but the differences start before then. It sends the jet all the way to Turkey.

Not sure whether the GFS has an idea or not, but it looks a bit better, because it actually moves the low through.