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DavidS

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Everything posted by DavidS

  1. DavidS
    Yes, shortwave drama, heights to the SE = yuck
  2. DavidS
    We’ve seen it plenty of times before. The low in the Atlantic west of the Azores has to remain an independent feature. If it phases, it’s game over for the run.
  3. DavidS
    For both the GFS and ECM, the modelling of the low to the w/nw of the Azores is important, with GFS making it a more significant feature. GFS first. The GEM handles it differently, but it is there and leave us tantalising T240
  4. DavidS
    I tend to agree about the extended range, however a key feature of the run is the Arctic high, which is developing within the reliable.
  5. DavidS
    On the 6z, the low around the Azores is a weaker feature and further south, so doesn’t support the higher pressure to the north.
  6. DavidS
    Yes agreed, the ECM looks like it might present another chance past Day 10. I would expect the GFS to back down on the 6z, as lots of things have to happen just right to build the ridge.
  7. DavidS
    Yes, both ECM and GEM not having it. Would like to think the GFS has it right, but my limited experience says it probably won’t be.
  8. DavidS
    Brilliant from the GFS 00z. Not often you get overnight upgrades. As ever, lots of key moments in the run, but the formation of the famous Azores Low looks important to me. This helps support the push of heights up the west side of Greenland After which the Northerly gets going
  9. DavidS
    Big expansion of snow cover into Mongolia and Northern China. Would like to see the Russian snow cover, re start it’s rather stalled move westward. We may see this in the next few days.
  10. DavidS
    And for the GFS” next trick…………. taken with appropriate sized pinch of salt of course, but interesting nonetheless.
  11. DavidS
    USNIC has updated, Big westward coverage of snow.
  12. DavidS
    I’ve been enjoying clicking through the extended CFS now it is available on Wetterzentrale. Below are just a few highlights from today’s 6z run. Interest begins in mid November with a Northerly. Cold is then on/off including something chilly for Christmas and the whole thing finishes in March with a tasty Easterly. All JFF, but if your of a cold persuasion, enjoy:
  13. DavidS
    Day 10 to 13 on the GFS 00z brings the winter set up you want, when you don’t want it.
  14. DavidS
    Both GFS and ECM showing possibilities of high pressure pushing north of the UK.
  15. DavidS
    0z gfs Op and para not having any of it. Any attempts of a ridge going north is quickly squashed on the para
  16. DavidS
    18z GFS Op and Para, both lowering heights to our SE in FI, but get there via different routes. This at 324. Op first.
  17. DavidS
    I’m late to the 12z today, but both the GFS Op and Para are offering something for Coldies in FI. Can it hold on for more than one run this time?
  18. DavidS
    GFS 12z drops the Greenland High option. Ho hum, onwards we go.
  19. DavidS
    I’ll answer my own question - yes. Big time!
  20. DavidS
    Will it go up?
  21. DavidS
    Yes the much warmer upper uppers looking to be kept just to the south and or east of the UK. Past D10 the GEFS are suggestive of something cooler.
  22. DavidS
    I’d check the weather history before claiming what was o want possible 50 years ago
  23. DavidS
    I wouldn't give up on further wintry weather yet. The short to medium term isn’t favourable for cold for the UK, but while the models are showing the potential for amplification (albeit not currently favourably placed) and higher pressure over the Arctic, I think Coldies should retain their interest.
  24. DavidS
    Look at the vortex at 240. Is there not more on the table for this winter?
  25. DavidS
    BBC use the ECM but are normally behind the curve with their forecasts. 0z ECM has us here at D10, but it goes wrong before.
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