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jamesgold

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Everything posted by jamesgold

  1. jamesgold
    ECM did pretty well with lows in the cold spell 2 weeks ago, I’m still quite interested in that
  2. jamesgold
    Well another day passes and our snowy Super Bowl looks intact
  3. jamesgold
    ECM is going against the GFS here for Sunday, I’d say no reason to panic
  4. jamesgold
    Sorry if I’m misunderstanding people but Steve Murr isn’t saying the GFS forecast is rubbish, meaning he’s disappointed at the outcome, he means the GFS forecast is rubbish in the way it handles the low and it’s a poor forecast that probably won’t transpire. The UKMet know this country the best and their model has been ultra consistent the last few days. They’re right to stress some marginality caution but I imagine that’s partly covering their back if there’s a change
  5. jamesgold
    Met office warnings have been moved to cover the SE as well
  6. jamesgold
    I only ever had about 3 or 4 cm lying at a time in BFTE 2018. I really think there’s a chance of getting more
  7. jamesgold
    Ahhhh too good don’t get me excited
  8. jamesgold
    How far south would that low on Sunday realistically get? It’s been trending further south but surely it can’t go much further given the unusual pattern? I don’t know though... is there a theoretical reason it shouldn’t go further south?
  9. jamesgold
    That ‘mild’ sector will be snow and it’s certainly much lower temps by the next day anyway (it gets all the way down to -12 in the space of one day ), and don’t take precipitation charts seriously I can’t imagine there won’t be that few showers south of east anglia
  10. jamesgold
    That ‘mild’ sector is still -5 for the south, I don’t think that’s too dodgy especially with surface cold if snow and ice has already happened in the weekend
  11. jamesgold
    Well word from MOD thread and twitter it seems the ECM rolling out now should be good for our region on Sunday , improvement on last ECM and GFS this picture here looks great for snow coming in at the correct angle
  12. jamesgold
    The models are poor at picking up convection at this range especially. For anyone down south I think we know streamers can set up at quite short notice - get the cold in and the snow can follow etc etc
  13. jamesgold
    Locations now show up on mobile!! Thank you to whoever sorted that
  14. jamesgold
    So apparently the ECM ensembles have the low pressure a little further east than the OP, maybe that will allow more cold air to wrap round some snow showers...
  15. jamesgold
    This particular run looks naff for a bit, but we’ve still got to clear the hurdle of getting an easterly in at all, so any run that does at the moment should be viewed as a win
  16. jamesgold
    I know it’s been mentioned already but I was going to say that MO update is really surprisingly bullish. I’m still siding with them here, not the GFS. Granted there will probably be a middle ground somewhere - nowhere close to severe like ECM but you never know
  17. jamesgold
    **the GFS models** - everything else still looks fine
  18. jamesgold
    That looks a lot cleaner than the OP doesn’t it?
  19. jamesgold
    The pub run is a bit drunk, really strengthens that low beyond any realistic outcome so no reason to be too alarmed. Still a continuation of the same theme - possibly very cold here if the low is south enough
  20. jamesgold
    That’ll be using todays 0z ECM run I think. If tomorrow’s 0z is anything like today’s 12z expect there to be quite a difference in that forecast. I know the point has been made already but it’s crazy that they take their charts from just one model, like they didn’t even hint at any “uncertainty” or anything which is surprising
  21. jamesgold
    We just need to see the charts upgrade enough that they still downgrade to a good level. Still not convinced for us in the south but if it goes right then I think a lot of people may end up a bit jealous of what we’d see...
  22. jamesgold
    The weather’s going to do what it’s going to do. If the ECM comes off, it will do so whether we feel guilty about it or not, so I reckon we should enjoy the ride, and if it does all come crashing down then at least we can see a positive there ??
  23. jamesgold
    This has truly been the most incredible few hours on here. Given the situation, the output is actually bordering on worryingly severe. I hope everyone on the MOD thread is ready for downgrades. It really doesn’t get better than this (I know I said this about the pub run yesterday, but surely now ) of course I know it won’t turn out anywhere near as severe...
  24. jamesgold
    Expect a major upgrade in BBC forecasts now the ECM is coming out with this. I think the “Weather for the week ahead” is recorded already now but if the ECM does continue with this it would be a major backtrack for the BBC
  25. jamesgold
    Super Bowl is 11:30pm on Sunday night. What an amazing thing that would be to watch with snow falling outside, I’d feel too American
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