Justin1705

Tomorrow looks very active across a larger area of England if not all of it. Looks to be very widespread from coast to coast, if you don’t see a storm tomorrow I’d be surprised . Unless you’re on the extreme south coast. The UKV and arome and arpege have a wide swathe of thunderstorms developing across a large swathe of England and wales, strengthening as they move northwards. I think tomorrow will be the most widespread day and not just localised to the west and central areas! If all goes well have to be very unlucky not to see some action tomorrow ! I’m off and will be going north up the M1 to Bedford or maybe even Northampton but will make this choice tomorrow. good luck everyone and happy storm watching/chasing edit- just been reading people’s post on the 2015 event and I think we might be in for something similar ! If not better ! As it’s been very hot for along time. Would be interesting to see if anyone had CAPE values for that day and compare with tomorrow. Can’t wait very active year so far long may it continue

More of a WNW flow as opposed to NWly so I will miss out. But I can’t complain as I got my thunder !

Even thought it was all right overhead. I have had my storm fix now but it did sound rather elevated. Couldn’t see rain wrapped lightning, but constant flickers and constant rumbles ! One CG from what I saw which was shotgun but other than that it sounded far away even though a direct hit. Will deffo be a MCS at some point. Edit second CG and loud bang. Look to be it for us now! On to the next

My prediction was correct! As soon as it reaches NW London explodes. I can hear distant rumbles from luton now. Videos and pictures to comeZ just battening down the hatches it’s rumbling away now!

The lightning strikes have now increased and is front building now. I’m in luton I’m getting excited bow

Yeah, the cape values and instability aren’t as high in London Essex as west of the m25 into midlands. Wouldn’t be suprised if that cell as moves out of NW London front and back builds, possible MCS in the making as it’s pepping up already and as it’s moving into more unstable are is growing also. It’s a shame but at least you got rain and some thunder. Now time for the big guns to come out

Crazy isn’t it, but correct me if I’m wrong doesn’t it prove the amount of moisture in the atmosphere today or is it irrelevant. Also just realised allmetsat uses blitzortung anyway, but find it easier to navigate

I prefer allmetsat on the uk tab. Usually picks up all lightning strikes Lightning - United Kingdom - Ireland EN.ALLMETSAT.COM Lightning - United Kingdom - Ireland

As others have mentioned, a lot more confident of seeing some form of storm today as the initiation is a lot further east ! In my mind that poky cell moving NW across London should get things going as it reaches NW London and Luton, as it goes right in the firing line by the looks of it, but won’t jinx it. Clear skies ahead and 29c in the car could be a banger today for more of the midlands and even London as we can see already. Essex and Kent seems to be the breeding ground today, which should bode well for me in luton, as opposed to yesterday where we was the breading ground for the MCS. really hope everyone who didn’t catch something yesterday gets something today ! Enjoy people, anyone chasing say safe and anyone radar watching keep the phone charged. latest sat 24 shows cumulus field growing over London and as mentioned above initiation a-lot further east. A hell of a lot of cape today so could end up being more than 20000 lightning strikes in a day. And with it being slightly later initiation than forecast, should be severe like net weather forecast and convective weather. Wouldn’t be suprised to see met office jump on an amber warning very soon as things progress. good luck everyone

Don’t fret. Go outside and wait lol

I’m in the same situation, but I have a courtesy car so I can go wherever, but it’s bloody electric and I’m not sure it’ll mix well

I want to know how fast that train was going

An area of heavy rain is expected to develop and move northwestwards across parts of southern and southwest England and the southern half of Wales during Sunday evening, clearing early on Monday morning. This will not affect the entire warning area, but within this a corridor of 10-20 mm of rain is likely and there is a chance that a few places may see 40-60 mm within 3 to 6 hours. There is also a chance of a few thunderstorms within this area. this is the met office take on that feature. It all depends how much day time surface heating occurs today in these areas. And how much cloud is there. They hint and that chance of a few thunderstorms, but focus on heavy rain as opposed to thunderstorms. Homegrown storms for you. Soon as the suns gone they fizzle out and die IMO anyway hope that helps. But if I was you I’d still be radar watching, because as you say and as met office said potential is there but probably nothing to shout home about. But again could be and hopefully am wrong ! Good luck

I think it’s just meant to be heavy rain, not necessarily electrified. As they have a separate warning for rain and not thunderstorm for this feature. As we rely on surface heating for homegrown storms I can’t see that being anything other than what’s over the west central England or midlands now !

I do think that any convection now will trigger either north or east of that cloud mass now. And as the UKV now shows a major shift eastward because of it

My point exactly. I think it’s taken into account the large cloud mass and showery rain that wasn’t forecast. Ultimately leading to a shift east in convection initiation ( where most surface heating occurs) IMO that’s the likely outcome of today but I could be wrong These high res models get our hopes up far too much. But honestly I’m blowing out my window now to try and blow the cloud away for you western folks, although you had yours yesterday so bloody share will you !!

And I thought I’d point out the met office have a separate “rain” warning for this as opposed to thunderstorms as the potential for severe storms or lighting decreases as day time surface heating subsides. The uk relies on imports overnight usually, which are usually fueled by a plume. all storms yesterday and today are homegrown storms and do definitely rely on surface heating to trigger. Again I hope I’m wrong but don’t get your hopes up, plenty more hot weather and potentially on the cards if today doesn’t go your way !!

Yes I understand where you’re coming from, this is however a low risk and hasn’t been highlighted by convective weather/ met office as a potentially severe weather event. Which means most of the time it doesn’t happen. The main focus was on the large amount of potential energy available today, hence why met office warning ends at 2100z after surface heating subsides any storms won’t be potent, or will just be heavy downpours. of course I wish everyone the best of luck. But from past experience and a little knowledge I don’t think there will be anything more than pulse storms, or showery rain, unless that cloud moves through and burns away quick, you’ll probably find any storms that do develop if any will be in the leading edge of that system in the south or on the east of it where surface heating is abundant! Anyway I hope I’m wrong !

I don’t think the thunderstorms will be widespread as forecast in the west today, as the unforecast area of rain has a lot of cloud associated with it, IMO I think today will be a bust as there is a hell of a lot of cloud over western areas. Maybe further east will have better luck today, but if the sun does come out quickly it will evaporate rather quick, even without the sun, doesn’t necessarily mean it will make more storms tho as cloud can inhibit surface heating and lead to what we call a “bust”

Hottest day of the year here in luton. Car temp hovering between 30/31C lovely weather ! Also added some pictures showing the instability in the atmosphere. Hoping the cap is more over to the east, and we get something. Some verticality however evident there is a cap in place ! But still! Anything can happen! Good luck everyone;) also a breeze developed this afternoon which in my opinion bodes well for later ! However could be too far east today! Tommorow is the one for east Anglia, London and home counties knowing my luck I’ll miss both Oppurtunites, just happy that summer has finally arrived, but the wasps can **** off !!

Hi from luton ! A few very loud bangs as a heavy shower moved through, one bright flash towards the airport, all Cg for sure! Some really big hail caught me in the garden, ran for cover as they actually hurt ! still rumbling away in the distance as it moved through; before it arrived noticeable increase in winds !

Good luck. Remember MSM mirror signal manoeuvre, also relax the examiner will never mark you down for being cautious/ safe. Best of luck! You can do it ! And if there is a downpour, slow to a safe speed and turn lights on !

Some lovely shots of the small cell in NW London St Albans earlier today, but also just some genuinely lovely pictures of convective clouds in rich blue skys with a beaming sun!! More of this in the summer would be

Oh wow !! So it did make it to Kent. Even tho it's wet and not laying it was so heavy could see the sky fill up with flakes. Was pretty amazing to be honest !! Enjoy mate, maybe the last for spring :)

Nice covering in luton. 150m ASL. 0c