Justin1705

Anyone going in a chase today?

From what I can see it will be more than worth it alotnof favourbales are in positive play tommorow so yh c midlands up wash poss linc area and the rest of inland SE. Coastal areas don't seem to be in with a chance unless your in lincs. Going by arome/arpege/ukv and nnm the storms forecast tomorrow are all going in different directions, this tells me a lot of unstable air and opposite steer on different cz I guess

Typically I've found the UKV to only really be of any use for shower activity. Anything associated with cold fronts and complicated situations are no good but with surface based showers they usually do a pretty good job

Yes yea you have lol

A lot more surface based instability around tommorow. Temps topping 30c, if I'm being honest tommorow looks like it really could produce some nasty ones, and you can even have a surface based storm, cos we made them and France didn't

By the looks of the radar, the storm that has ignited must be the area of 1000kj cape. As mentioned before it's a slither and clears through between 8-10pm. Once this rain has moved through and area of instability and cape passes, unfortunately then this will be over. However having looked there's a good chance. West London, north west London Bedfordshire could be within the fire line. It all depends on cooling aloft, the amount of cape and many others of which I'm not educated to say. Tommorow is the day for storms, cold front moving in, slightly cooler and more in the way of moisture, good old surface based tomo and if I'm being honest this elevated stuff doesn't do justice for me I like a bit of shotgun thunder watching cloud bases. This evaporating rain and distant rumbles don't do it. So I'm all honesty don't give up cos tommorow looks good, of which met have issued a warning for !! So yh tommorow is breakdown day, not today

Sferics in south london, however if I didn't check I wouldn't know as radar echoes do not suggest a storm here. Nowcast, eyes to the sky and watch :£)

Well I mean the rainfall seems to very evaporative. It will only do any benefit if the rain reaches the floor. If not lightning hitting dry hot straw or houses or wood is a recipe for disaster and will make things worst around that area. Fingers crossed

Cigarette plants

London and SE could have a few thunderstorms this evening as the diurnal heat subsides and it cools. Looks to be a few poky cells develop around the London area and track north. The met office have this as a scenario aswell. One thing I would say have we thought that the models are so confused with the never seen before uppers and 850s and considerably dry air in recent days. It's finding it hard to predict where and how much PPN will be around. For example this storm in the SW was just forecast a slither of PPN. I feel that wherever you see the slightest shower on UKV, consider it a potential thunderstorm and covering a much wider area than forwcast the met office even stated they can't pinpoint where and when but they are fairly confident there will be thunderstorms to end this heatwave. The UKV model is actually very good for Midlands Home Counties and SE today and especially tommorow. We will see !! good luck all ps I was ment to be off today but offered at 12 hour shift from 11 to get in some air con and not be sweltering in bed LOL It was one stroke. I personally would have been insulted to wake up and get one strike. So don't beat yourself up it was probably a false positive lol

Poker in the SW channel kicking out ALOT of sferics

Can hear it rumbling away in luton. I'm currently drenched like a drowned rat hopefully something a bit more direct in a hour or so, instability looks to carry on to late evening across CE, won't be as big as the Welwyn garden one. But hopefully some closer flashed and bangs

Low rumbles from the cell just south of luton

Nice cloudscapes just a heavy shower here tho but the window of Oppurtunity looks up until 5, especially now the sun has shown itself

Well as today seems a bit of a meh. I want to post my bests of MAY 18th, some I've posted but as it was busy some may have missed, so I am going to repost it here. Luckily I was in brighton then actually totally oblivious to the forecast until the same day as I was having so much fun on my bday. But it was amazing And it was meant to be. Some time lapse footage I recorded leading up to the storm. Now the second videos I had been woken up by the rain lashing and a big crash of thunder ( was drunk). This was probably one of my best storms I've ever seen in the UK just all in all. The spectacle in the channel before and the gusty windy rain lighting and thunder to finish. I actually went to sleep as it was weakening as it crossed the channel and I was satisfied with what I had captured and stupidly called it a night. At 23:35 it arrived on the shores with a bang. Here are my best shots. Ps the longest video has a nice surprise at the end Excuse one video one of my pals tried putting something out the window like a melt. Anyway hope you enjoys FullSizeRender.MOV IMG_5095.MOV FullSizeRender.mov IMG_5098.MOV IMG_5099.MOV

Developments, failing towers most probs loool

The warning is till midnight

I'm in luton. It's so sweaty here but the cells didn't reach it past south london and slough ? just had a look to my obscured south there's something there not sure what tho

Because if they didn't and someone got struck by lightning and wasn't prepared or didn't know they can be done. It's better to be cautious and advise over a RISK, but to be honest mate shhh because if you actually watch met office they say not everywhere will get them and most places will stay dry. So please until your a qualified meteorologist shutup lol, people like you make this place negative and a bore. You didn't get some storms cool, it wasn't a guarantee anyway so don't slate the met office, blame yoursef for getting your hopes up

Luton is very warm and humid all of a sudden. Suns been out and m sure cape values are all over place. Not too late yet warnings till 1:00am featuring easy jet depart luton

Yes boy

Just leftover storms from furnace last night pal. Won't be there after it compeltes the cross, or just evaporative convective crud. However it could be the instability that pushes up and gives us a chance of a secondary plume tonight so. So the air is unstable but the PpN of forecast to subside before potentially re invigorating as it's driven north. Hence why wakes and West Midlands are in the prime. But as always it's a nowcast eyes to the sky and radar

I think if we can see that elevated crud move through. And some brighter spells in the SE. We could see some storms behind and In front of the elevated shizzle. The cape will be anywhere the sun comes out today. So if we have a few hours of sun in the SE storms will break out. But it does seem that West Midlands and wales will do well. Good luck all its always a nowcast situation with storms in the Uk. The cape values look good for the SE and because of the lack of the feature on the 12z and the peppered showers on the 6z to me shows more surface heating and more chance of showers in south east. Cape values higher in SE at 12 on 06z, on 12z no cape at all. It's always down to the last minutes

This is the surface based firing line, good luck all