Justin1705

There are a few ensembles on the GFS even at 24 hours which are spread, usually they are pretty solid and grouped together at this time frame right ?? All to play for over the next 48 hour, all be it marginal.

Snowing nicely in luton. Settling on everything other than the paving slabs with a slushy mix on them, however starting to settle from the edges. It's deffo below 0c. Plenty of suprises coming over the next 24-48 hours. Enjoy while we can

It all comes down to certainty, right now it's still along way out in forecast terms. Check back tommorow and if charts stay the the same or improve( for snow) then expect amber maybe even red warnings of over a foot over snow is modelled from 3 Atlantic weather systems in 3 days.... wouldn't be suprised

Well.... the 18z arome is very good for tonight, tommorow and actually Thursday/Friday for my location. I've kept quiet recently and waited for the cold and snow to be upon us before posting. there is a 50 mile correction north on most models tonight. The met office is giving a good 18 hours of snow for central England over the next 24. it goes without saying that Thursday/Friday is not out of the question and will come down to the track of the 2 inbound low pressure before it can be pinpointed further and track forecast improved as expected lots of chops and changes down to the last hour, so take it as it comes and watch that lamppost. most importantly enjoy

Well, essex had heavier snowfall than us, but slightly higher temps leading to wetter snow and lesser accumulation. Luton/ St Albans, Cambridge, Had moderate snow but onto frozen ground with temps of -2c . Also the snow was not wet snow in luton. I do believe that we actually were better off here due to being inland and have higher totals(not as high as Kent downs). Used the I phone measuring app and it's 6cm I posted here yesterday that people would be in for a suprise... now where's the next feature ps people worried about the breakdown. Models didn't pick this up properly until 24 hours. Anything's game !! enjoy the pictures. Off to make a snowman !! Happy for all !! Enjoy

And the UKMO yessss

UKMO also pushes feature further into SE England. Radar watch tomorrow. Increasingly likely to snow tommorow at some point in the SE tomo. Hopefully it's further inland. Wishing for suprises for everyone

Arome going for a snow fest tommorow, models have been up and down over this day and feature alone, and people are worried about a breakdown. The models don't know what's happening tomo lol . Let's see how far this feature makes it along the channel before the north drift. My feelings are a nice surprise for areas SE and EA and Kent

Lol makes a change. Kent clipper and all that

Thunderstorm just north of luton. Unfortunately distant rumbles and flashes from here. But seems a bit pokey, showing lightning returns on allmetsat. Anyone in flitwick or Bedford could be in for a treat.

I have been looking at the UKV and other models. I feel like tomorrow morning there could be some action in the far SE. There is a pocket between the warm and cold front, and supposedly there seems to be some pokey showers that form around Thames estuary up through Chelmsford and Colchester. there is very little CAPE 200kgj, however if my memory serves me right we had an unexpected 5am storm a few years back and it was actually quite active. although relatively small in size and short in duration. Could this be last chance saloon. hopefully so. This may be missed but it has showed on a few forecast and models for a defined area( similar to this mornings met warning) which could again bring some flash flooding to area that did NOT see rain in recent days. I have attached a few different models and charts, its a very low chance but has been showing on the last few runs, as the fronts clear off EAST. Please correct me anywhere that i am wrong, and I'd also love to know anyone Else's opinion :0) Still no storms here for me in Luton and it doesn't look likely even if tomorrow does come off for me, but elsewhere could be a little surprise. the last chart is a new cape chart which i like, showing different ensembles and different amounts of cape for tomorrow morning, along with brief CZ as the fronts clear east. this is my take please correct me if i am wrong .

WHEN IN DOUBT: POST EM ALL LOL

really does not stop it being muggy tho. its 33c down here whilst your 25c

yes very muggy in Luton !

It is looking increasingly likely that the south coast wont see any storms, so very unfortunate for the likes of Bournemouth, Southampton and places like that. seems to be initiation further inland on convergence zones. The only good chance is overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning but even so that looks to be waning. seems to be tomorrow the good day for more central areas and midlands and north eastern England. sucks to be on the south coast. Today seems to be for east Anglia and wash area, met office says more widespread tomorrow especially in SW, wales , west midlands and central england!!

Cells popped in the thames estuary and SE essex. One sferic return but i imagine, like always, alot more due to undetected strikes. have a massive headache this afternoon, so i cant tell thunderstorms are due somewhere ! the oppresive humidity is horrible!!

OMG the rainfall totals in western Scotland and northern island right no. That looks like tropical rain in my eyes, well needed for some places further south. I'm actually hoping for a strong frontal system to push in, freshens the air with a nice cool sea air breeze. And waters our garden. Then you can go back to humdinger Spanish plumes !! Lol

Fast forward 2 hours and it just made Margate lol

Just watched met office afternoon forecast, Alex deal on refused to say the word thunderstorm 🌩 for tommorow lol. Maybe he doesn't want to jinx it either !!

Yeah, I've looked at the most recent charts and the cape has been downgraded across the board for today. Must have been too much cloud to early very stormy feeling but not very stormy looking, I'm going to have my window open just in case but looks like Netflix has priority for now

Noticed people say that wind will affect development. Well it was windy now it's still as anything here in Bedfordshire, got sweat pouring from my head aswell !

Heavy convective rain in luton but nothing on radar

Sounds like a good method mate ! Lovely day for it not S blistering as yesterday and a nice breeze in the last hour or so. Maybe it's them breeze CZ setting up

Hahaha to be honest I've got to walk down to work at 3 lol I'm hoping it's not active but as it's 27/28c in parts already today, I'd say that with maximum diurnal heating occurring and no cloud cover here in luton. Looks to be good some fluffy low level cumulus but that's it. Always a good sign anyway good luck to all