Greyhound81

Do you think the end of solar cycle 21 was one of the the reasons why 1986 was so cold? The end of odd numbered solar cycles seems to coincide with cold weather.

The worst combined July and August that I can remember is 2011. That was just awful. Maybe it was better where you live though.

What are the models suggesting for the second week of September (11th - 17th)? A continuation of the good weather or will things go downhill?

It is a shame that a lot of the old building in Exeter got destroyed in WW2 bombing raids. Do you think mistakes were made when the city was rebuilt following the war? Maybe if Exeter had not been bombed, those streets would not look like the way they do now and would not need to be raised to the ground? Apparantly the Germans only targetted Exeter because of its historic buildings and not for any strategic reason.

I don't think you can call it a pathetic excuse for a summer when we have had one of the best Junes on record. We have had better summers but plenty worse (2007-8, 2011-12 etc).

I am going to have a few days off work in September and want to choose the days that have the best prospects of weather. Monday and Tuesday look good according to the BBC website but it is probably too late to book those days off. Is there still some prospects of good weather after next week or is it all downhill after next Tuesday?

It has been mentioned on another climate forum that no extra water vapor is being recorded in the lower stratosphere as monitered by the UAH satellite (balloon data). If that is the case, then the Tonga volcano eruption cannot be having an effect on global temperatures just yet. Also a press release from NASA mentioned that it could take 2-3 years before the eruption causes global temperatures to rise, and even then it might not be noticable above statistical noise. The accompanying cooling particles would have to dissipate before it can cause any warming. https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiSh57hhKuAAxUbUkEAHaU2CzwQFnoECCUQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fclimate-environment%2F2022%2F08%2F05%2Fvolcano-eruption-tonga-record-climate%2F&usg=AOvVaw0qqrAkdb6oyneeMM76yjfi&opi=89978449

The climate section of this forum seems very quiet these days. There are not many posts in this section compared to previous years. Also Bornfromthevoid seems to have gone. He was very good at explaining how climate change works.

August was cool. June and July were above average.

The June 2017 heatwave was a lot more oppressive than the last few days have been, apart from maybe Sunday. Summer went downhill after June that year, could 2023 be a repeat of that summer, and this hot spell could be as good as it gets?

I have 3 days off work from Wedenesday to Friday next week. Does it look like all 3 days will be a washout in the south east?

Last year Kenley recorded the highest ever daily minimum temperature of 25.8 degrees.

Do any of the winter months have an enigma for low temperatures, like the 13th June has for 30 degress?

Does @Nick F have a good track record with the seasonal forecasts? I cannot see any previous forecasts on this site.

2011 was worse in my opinion, although it depends on where you live. Is the netweather summer forecast going to be released soon? I have seen a few forecasts for this summer, and they seem to agree that it won't be as good as last year, although there will be some warm spells.

The netweather forecast for spring turned out to be quite good.

When will the netweather summer forecast be released?

Was 30 degrees reached in any of the 85-88 summers?

I am not sure why you gave August 2019 and 2020 the same rating as August 2021? August 2021 was awful. This is how I would rate 2019-2021. Can't remember enough about 2009 to give it a rating. 2019: -1, +1, 0 = 0.5 2020: 0, -1, +1 = 0?? 2021: +1, 0, -2 = -1.5 If you give June a zero with a half-weighting is it still zero when you add the months together?

Do you find Autumn and Winter easier to predict? Not that it is easy to predict the weather for any season.

2016 was consistantly wet. But warmer that this spring though.

Where there any years that failed to reach 30c?

I seem to remember that a lot of people were predicting summer 2022 to be below average. Not just on this forum but in general. When did it become clear that last summer was going to turn out to be very good? Probably not in early May.

There is a weather forecaster called James Madden (Exacta Weather) who is predicting an African plume coming to the UK in late August, bringing temperatures as high as 35 degrees. He is also predicting 2 other heatwaves in early June and mid July with temperatures in the low 30s. Does James Madden have a good track record of predicting the weather?

I lot of climate science (and weather in general) goes over my head, but I thought that only a compete shutdown of the gulfstream would cause any cooling in Northern Europe, and any slowdown of the gulfstream would just reduce any warming, compared to other parts of the world? The gulfstream has has slowed a lot over the last 100 years. If a slower gulfstream causes cooling, then why is the UK and Ireland still warming? The cooling should have already started by now, if that was the case. Is it the AMOC rather than the gulfstream itself that is slowing? What does the Irish Met Office know that other climate scientists don't?