03jtrickey

TC - if you're still around - what depths do you reckon we will see here in Cheltenham?

Just been out on my first bike ride since it started snowing last Tuesday. Only the main A and B roads are passable at the moment so my routes are a bit limited! I had a punishing climb up Birdlip Hill from the Witcombes. It seems about twice as hard in this cold weather! There's still a lot of snow up on the hills - about 4-5 inches. It is lingering on the trees too, and drifting in the strong winds. Anything that falls tonight will really accumulate quickly and exacerbate the drifting. There's still two or three inches of snow left in Cheltenham, but only on the ground and the snow is turning slushy.

Another update from Ian. http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/weather/ianfergusson/ Wonder why he hasn't come to NW? BTW Doesn't look good for us in Glos. Off now, will see what happens in the morning.

LOL. It hasn't happened yet! I'm going to be looking at the NAE and the GFS as they come out. Might go to bed now actually (at a record early time). Really tired after last week's insane weather watching, back to school tomorrow too...

Oh right is that just the UKMO on wetter then?

How do you access the GM?

Personally I think it will stop 1.6 miles SW of Yatton!

Thanks Dogs and Tufty :unsure: Going to be an interesting situation coming up!

Latest NAE accumulation. Will it reach far enough NE for Gloucestershire to be affected?

Wow, latest GFS looking less marginal, cold air further south, but ppt. remains in situ, looking good..... or bad... if it comes off as severely as it has the potential to. Old Run: New Run: Much bigger pool of sub -5 air, much further south! Could models be underestimating the amount of cold around?

My Dad was telling me today about an event which was forecast as heavy rain, and turned out as widespread blizzards. Says it could have been 1981. Dogs, what was the setup like which brought the 1981 blizzards?

"Heavy Snow 1239 Mon 11 1245 Mon 11" 6 minutes of heavy snow lol.

I think Dartmoor_Matt is in the prime location for this, mullender in the next best place

50-80mm snow - I think he means snow depths of 5cm to 8cm not 50-80mm of rain falling as snow! Though I don't normally see snow measured in mm. I would agree with his prediction so far, but it will be interesting to see whether the lowlands of Gloucestershire end up the right side of marginal. 6Z GFS and NAE are looking good for Gloucestershire, so we could even see wet snow down here. However I do think it will be a very messy picture, with a thaw of any lying wet snow quickly setting in once it has finished.

Incoming shower... just watch it dissipate as it reaches GL51... Off soon, exam in the morning.

Wonder if we'll get another update from Ian? That would be great, because I haven't got a clue what will happen with Tuesday's event!

This is where the failed potential Beast from the East ended up (it showed earlier in the week as being over the UK for a couple of runs): http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8450748.stm A foot of snow in Germany - Berlin, and the article talks of 2m drifts on the motorway!

Yes Dogs - gritters/snowploughs haven't touched the road in days. Snow is starting to look messy already now with a slow thaw underway and most of the snow gone from the trees. How are things looking where you are?

Not for us though Dogs. Probably slushy wet snow anyway.

Warning out for the SW now. Waiting for the advisories to be updated. "A band of heavy snow will move slowly northeast during Tuesday afternoon and the first part of Wednesday before dying out. Accumulations of 5 to 10cm are expected widely, with 10 to 20cm possible locally, and a low risk of up to 30cm over higher ground." http://metoffice.com/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html Must admit I'm not feeling at all optimistic about upcoming events. At best we will have wet snow on Tuesday here; more likely just heavy rain or the ppt. not reaching far enough NE. I was hoping the cold spell would go out with a bang... though I think if this easterly can't deliver with low uppers, the Atlantic certainly won't!

Warning out for Tuesday: "A band of heavy snow will move slowly northeast during Tuesday afternoon and the first part of Wednesday before dying out. Accumulations of 5 to 10cm are expected widely, with 10 to 20cm possible locally, and a low risk of up to 30cm over higher ground." Not excited at all yet though, it'll be wet stuff at best here - at worst heavy rain or nothing at all.

Yes I'm looking for a proper thaw now, unless there is a really decent snowfall on the cards.

Gloomy weather today, light snizzle and a slow thaw of existing snowcover. The wind has picked up a bit and shaken snow off the trees overnight.

Quote from John Holmes on the Model Thread: I think this is a really good post. Temps getting above freezing today - I think any snow from now on is going to become increasingly wet, and a slow thaw by day probably meaning the existing snowcover will turn messier as the week goes on. Still the possibility of some wet snow moving in from the SW Tues/Weds. What I've liked about this winter so far is that the snow hasn't melted during the day. That's probably about to change...

OK light snow here. But negligible. I'm thinking the forecast I gave to friends of "it will snow but don't expect much accumulation (3-6cm max) and mainly light" is going to be right... I had two texting my last night to ask Must be fun down in Devon and Cornwall now, looks like there are some heavier bursts on the radar. I've just looked at the NMM on Meteociel and it shows light ppt. forming "out of nowhere", so we could be seeing that happen. I think it's an upper warm front moving over which will spark its formation.