Scott Ingham

Why would it have been the old GFSP? The chart posted is from 2 weeks ago Chris

You beat me to it! If you look at the verification stats. When we last had an arctic high modelled the gfsp beat both gfs and ecm in verification. So could be a case its a better model in instances like this with a ssw filtering through Its fact it has a better handle in the north pole due to nearly twice the layers of the current gfs. The one thing to take into accoun though is greater layers mean when its wrong its wrong in a big way The period 27th to the 1st had polar heights and the gfsp was king of verifìcation through this week.

Look at the gfsp It should model a polar high better due to 126 levels in that region It brings the arctic high very far south and tries to link with the greenie high. Pushing all this cold air south with us It also has a low pressure bringing gale force winds and blizzards!

That is chart of the WINTER!!! LOOK HOW CLOSE THE -20 ISOTHERM IS! SCARY! Have we had uppers over at us that cold at day 9?!! Thats brought forward!

Your right i didnt expect that. All a variation on a theme! Modelling is bonkers right now

All FI so means nothing but could we hit a -15 on this run from here. The low off the eastwrn seaboard should maintain greenie heights for some time while the mothership heads south west! Maybe not. No way the ridge flattens like that @288 hours Agaon all low res stuff!

So verticle! The differences again though on all the models is insane. 168 hours and continuity nowhere. Fascinating to watch it unfold. I love a good ssw. They are all or nothing

That area to the west of England didnt look right considering the pressure patterns around it. I agree its the first thing i saw

Yes my friend! That 20th-30th period is looking extremeley interesting! I believe we may also be seeing adjustments in AAM. There is some inertia thats transferred from 60n - 30/40n that will subtly be rising AAM and blocking some westerly winds at this latitude and models all winter including the gwo plotting has under estimated momentum. PV in Scandinavia Vaccum created Greenland for a high An arctic high to push the polar vortex unusually far south with extremely cold air trapped within it You couldnt write better patterns on paper but the key for me is how much waa can we drive north to carve out high lat blocks. Momentum is key

Yes correct. Gem is reportedly to a degree by the pros over in exeter. 16th/18th increasingly looking like a go date for the next bout of cold weather! Lets hope we get the upper air to bring more into the game but with events higher up now pushing very respectable cold over scandinavia and europe i cant see how we wouldnt be!

This is your time. Judgement of split energy. Have you seen a mean chart or run that you feel shows the most likely way forward? I have my own idea i want to test it against

I am agonisingly just too far south! But it does happen!

Well done north and west yorkshire youve made a mockery of the met warnings. Just goes to show how hard it is even with all todays upgraded models to forecast snow!

This is an extremely fluid situation but this 20th-30th period is continuing to firm up now! No trend big enough to call deep cold and snowy nirvana but we have a trend big enough to absolutely peak interest. Also this shrinking of the "mild" period continues with us looking no where near what was expected just one week ago in the 15th-20th period! Very positive interesting model output.

Hes always down in the dumps/pits our pit

Run the euro4 run mate. Both areas merge and pep up abefore they get here. The period of interest is hours away

Just so people have an idea. And i really rate the euro 4. This is showing for 8pm and is bang on the money Here is at 3am as it makes its way into North Yorkshire

The heavier precipitation over us doesnt show till 3am mate until 11am friday so i wouldnt worry atm

The ECM is a very intetesting run! The warm blip on this run lasts 36 hours! The wedge north of us has gained traction over the last 2 or 3 runs and the cold air east of us is only waiting on sharpening of the pattern to be edged closer to the isles! Its all very battleground and very met office update esq!

The nature of them open lines suggest to me its a couple of days away from them heights to the south being pushed north they dont look stable and compared to the 6/10 you can see this movement and weakening of the uk/iberian high. Id say in 3 days time these wouldnt show

On the 6-10 yeah but movement on the 8-14 look like heights are pushing further north out of the UK with north easterly air from scandi bumping into air from the atlantic??

So what is he trying to say? Im not an expert but the 8/14 looked like tweaks away from an omega block

Yes! My contact in the met mentioned as much yesterday morning. They are 50/50 but if on the right side of cold it could get VERY interesting

You think? Have you seen the 8-14? Looks like signs of an omega block starting

Is he not saying theyve changed for the better tho mushy if you read his first line