Scott Ingham

Its the heights preventing big enough showers from lowering the freezing level. Deffo bust i feel but its 2am whem things look to pep up on higher res models

Expectations not being met is what hits the nail on the head. When we leave expectations behind look at weather patterns and figures its actually beem an exception start. "Interesting" start is what id say

If that is our streamer north of Leeds well be too far south for any snow. It does show a meandering of precipitation though later so well see

If your nearer the coast and receive snowfall please let us know so we can work out the snowline

Yeah them percentiles scream uncertainty mathematically

Well then i will say it will turn no warmer than it is now. Whatever your temperature is And we look to have snow today so equally you havw to realise its been a different climate all over the uk

Tim ive not got any warmer than 2 degrees since it started. You have to realise to some parts of the UK itd been really cold

Follow the isobars back right to the very end they origiñate from the med. Normally they would origijate from russia

I know you hate it mate but the noaa charts. Like ive just replied 3/ 10 years wrong. You have to see past face value charts and apply your own ideas and knowledge as well as understand model bias to see past some of these runs Anyway this is my last post in the mod thread so if anyone wants a reply message me in private chat as ive seen enough here and moving to regionals

I think well stay around 3 or 4 degrees before getting colder mate. I dont see the high getting as close as whats been shown. Mushys charts will show you them and i think ivr seen them wrong 3 times in 10 years

Ecm follows GFS. I dont even believe this mild spell people have been saying is a done deal since saturday is even going to happen. Slowly slowly catchy monkey

Yes i believe over the next 36 hours the models will converge on these anomoly charts. You have to have taken notice but very slowly we are reaching this pattern. The models are back tracking on mild. Theyve sucked people in onoy to say only joking! It nornally works the other way where we get cold stolen off us at the last minute!

Yes! Thats a very good description of what we have going forward! Ill be signing back in at 6:45 so well see! (Trying to post less)

You are right then! I had the 11th down as showing milder. Ill have a look before then to see if i can see the set. I only have the 11th becasue of a pm convo i had in my head with feb but my brains a bit fried with corona virus atm!

Looking forward to the ECM. It wouldnt take much sharpening to see low pressures slide into the UK. Theres certainly increasing ensemble support for this scenario. Would you not agree we are seeing this "milder" spell eaten from both sides?

Oh yeah hahahaha Cant tell you the level of confusion i had then!

3 days ago it showed a warm up on the 11th. Its beem pushed further back in time. Its whats opening up my eyes

Yeah i agree on that. Cold imversion. Very cold as a holding pattern until zonal winds vacate Greenland or Scandi. Id rather take it its less risky. I just feel zonal winds are being overly forecast and as these relax back so will high pressure towards greenland leaving a spot for diving low sliding snowy pressures

The block was further East yesterday and even worse two days ago to the point the high looked to be toppling over europe. This gfs run it has trended further west and isnt toppling over the UK as much on the 10th

24 hours ago the GFS has the same chart practically as the UKMO. Its backed further west with every run. I may be wrong and if i am i am but my call would be for us not to turn mild like ensembles forecast a week ago. But we make these calls and live and die by them i guess! I have to make a call and this one is mine. Chances are far greater we end up mild i agree and im not telling everyone this is what will happen. Its just my own opiniom. I called it 8 days ago. It looked dead 2 days ago its edging back since then

Yes but we were way further east with the pattern yesterday the block has only shifted further and further west with every run to the point were nearly in slider potential. I thought slider at this week jist dint expect ir to trend so far east to have to make corrections back to a cold pattern

Yeah i could see this option played out in this chaotic head of mine 5 days ago when it was called. Its only one run though so becuase i said sit on the fence of mild you have to sit on the fence of this scenario as well. But since yesterdays 12z as the models hit high res they havw started to go against thrm ensembles calling us to go mild

So.... mild blip...mild even at all? Models confused Ive seen enough here at 150 to know there is a chance of the battoeground/slider event around the 10th give or take a day or 2 i spoke about. Were trending back to continued cold. So again. Talking with certainty about the end to cold is very premature yet. If that sharpens forget mild blip think snowy blip as discussed 3 days ago You probably rhought i was bonkers going against the ensembles but sometimes models cant see what us humans can see Still on the fence however. Its wrong to proclaim it will be cold with all this uncertainty. id be a hypocrite after sitting on the fence when it was mild

Looks around 2am-3am

Over night is the best period. Less showers tomorrow and wednesdsy looks dry